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Hurricane DOLORES Forecast Discussion Number 23

2015-07-17 04:35:15| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 900 PM MDT THU JUL 16 2015 000 WTPZ45 KNHC 170235 TCDEP5 HURRICANE DOLORES DISCUSSION NUMBER 23 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052015 900 PM MDT THU JUL 16 2015 Dolores's convective cloud pattern continues to deteriorate with a significant erosion of deep convection having occurred in the western semicircle since the previous advisory. However, the eyewall convection has changed little and the eye has contracted down to about a 15-nmi diameter. A blend of Dvorak CI numbers from TAFB and SAB, along UW-CIMSS ADT values, supports lowering the initial intensity to 85 kt for this advisory. The initial motion estimate is 310/08 kt. Dolores has made a noticeable jog toward the northwest during the past 6 hours, which was likely due to the aforementioned convective asymmetry that has developed. However, this should just be a short term motion and a turn back toward the west-northwest is expected later tonight, and then continue for another 36 hours or so. After that, the cyclone is forecast to turn toward the northwest and north-northwest as Dolores skirts along the western periphery of the subtropical ridge that extends westward from the U.S Southern Plains across northern Mexico and Baja California. The NHC forecast track is to the right of the previous advisory track, mainly to account for the more northerly initial position, and lies close to the multi-model consensus TVCE and the FSSE model. Dolores is forecast to move over progressively cooler waters during the 5-day period, reaching sub-26C SSTs within the next 12 hours or so and moving over 23C water temperatures by 48 hours. The result should be continued erosion of Dolores's convective pattern along with steady weakening. Dolores is expected to become a remnant low pressure system in 72 hours, if not sooner. The official intensity forecast is similar to the previous advisory, and closely follows the ICON intensity consensus model. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 17/0300Z 20.8N 113.2W 85 KT 100 MPH 12H 17/1200Z 21.2N 114.4W 75 KT 85 MPH 24H 18/0000Z 21.7N 116.0W 65 KT 75 MPH 36H 18/1200Z 22.7N 117.4W 55 KT 65 MPH 48H 19/0000Z 24.4N 118.7W 45 KT 50 MPH 72H 20/0000Z 28.7N 121.2W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 21/0000Z 30.5N 122.6W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 22/0000Z 30.2N 123.4W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Stewart

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Hurricane DOLORES Forecast Discussion Number 22

2015-07-16 22:36:44| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 300 PM MDT THU JUL 16 2015 000 WTPZ45 KNHC 162036 TCDEP5 HURRICANE DOLORES DISCUSSION NUMBER 22 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052015 300 PM MDT THU JUL 16 2015 Dolores's satellite presentation is slowly deteriorating. Cloud tops have been warming since the last advisory, and visible and microwave imagery indicate that dry air is wrapping into the circulation. The intensity is estimated to have decreased to 90 kt based on a blend of Dvorak CI numbers from TAFB, SAB, and the UW-CIMSS ADT. Progressively cooler water, a drier and more stable environment, and increasing shear in about three days will all contribute to continued weakening through the entire forecast period. The intensity models are in good agreement on the rate of weakening during the next few days, and the NHC intensity forecast is very close to the IVCN intensity consensus. Due to the increasingly hostile environment, Dolores could become a remnant low by day 4. Dolores has turned west-northwestward with an initial motion of 300/7 kt. A building mid-level ridge to the northeast should keep the cyclone moving west-northwestward for the next 36 hours, followed by a turn to the northwest and north-northwest once Dolores reaches the western periphery of the ridge. The GFDL remains an eastern outlier after 36 hours, but otherwise the rest of the models are in very good agreement on Dolores's future track. The NHC track forecast is near a consensus of the GFS and ECMWF, and no major changes from the previous forecast were required on this cycle. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 16/2100Z 20.2N 112.7W 90 KT 105 MPH 12H 17/0600Z 20.6N 113.8W 80 KT 90 MPH 24H 17/1800Z 21.1N 115.5W 70 KT 80 MPH 36H 18/0600Z 21.7N 116.9W 60 KT 70 MPH 48H 18/1800Z 23.0N 118.4W 50 KT 60 MPH 72H 19/1800Z 26.8N 121.0W 35 KT 40 MPH 96H 20/1800Z 30.0N 123.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 21/1800Z 30.5N 123.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Berg

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Hurricane DOLORES Forecast Discussion Number 21

2015-07-16 16:37:24| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 900 AM MDT THU JUL 16 2015 000 WTPZ45 KNHC 161437 TCDEP5 HURRICANE DOLORES DISCUSSION NUMBER 21 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052015 900 AM MDT THU JUL 16 2015 Cloud tops have actually cooled around Dolores's eye during the past few hours, with a black ring completely encircling the eye in the infrared Dvorak enhancement. This would suggest that weakening is not occurring at the moment, and the initial intensity is held at 100 kt. Dolores has another 24 hours or so before it reaches sub-26C water, and given the hurricane's marginal annular structure, only gradual weakening is anticipated in the short term. Much colder water, increasing shear, and a drier, more stable environment should induce a faster rate of weakening after 24 hours, and Dolores could become a tropical storm within 48 hours. The cyclone is expected to be a remnant low by day 5. The NHC intensity forecast is close to a blend of the SHIPS and LGEM models for the first 36 hours and then near the IVCN intensity consensus thereafter. The SHIPS and LGEM dissipate the system by day 4 or 5, which seems unrealistic given that the global models maintain a cyclone for the entire forecast period. Dolores has been moving northwestward, or 305/6 kt, but it should turn west-northwestward soon as a mid-level ridge axis builds westward from northern Mexico. A turn back to the northwest and then north-northwest with an increase in forward speed is expected beyond 48 hours once Dolores reaches the western periphery of the ridge. The GFS and ECMWF models are in much better agreement than they were yesterday, and the main outliers on this cycle are the UKMET and GFDL, which seem too far to the east. The new NHC track forecast remains near the GFS-ECMWF consensus and is not much different from the previous forecast. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 16/1500Z 19.9N 111.8W 100 KT 115 MPH 12H 17/0000Z 20.3N 113.0W 95 KT 110 MPH 24H 17/1200Z 20.9N 114.6W 85 KT 100 MPH 36H 18/0000Z 21.3N 116.4W 70 KT 80 MPH 48H 18/1200Z 22.3N 117.8W 60 KT 70 MPH 72H 19/1200Z 25.6N 120.7W 40 KT 45 MPH 96H 20/1200Z 29.5N 123.0W 35 KT 40 MPH 120H 21/1200Z 30.5N 124.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Berg

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Tropical Storm ENRIQUE Forecast Discussion Number 17

2015-07-16 16:35:12| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 800 AM PDT THU JUL 16 2015 000 WTPZ41 KNHC 161435 TCDEP1 TROPICAL STORM ENRIQUE DISCUSSION NUMBER 17 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP062015 800 AM PDT THU JUL 16 2015 While the convection associated with Enrique continues to decrease, data from the RapidScat instrument on the International Space Station suggest the system still had tropical storm force winds near 1100 UTC. Based on these data as well as Dvorak intensity estimates from TAFB and SAB, the initial intensity remains 35 kt. Enrique is encountering cool sea surface temperatures and a drier air mass, and this combination should lead to the the cyclone's dissipation. Unless the convection makes an unexpected return, Enrique should weaken to a depression during the next several hours and degenerate into a remnant low in 24-36 hours, if not sooner. The initial motion is 295/7. A slow west-northwestward motion should continue for another 24 hours or so. After that, steering currents weaken, and the cyclone should turn westward and slow down. Most of the global models take the remnant low slowly west-southwestward, then southward in a few days. The latest NHC track is close to the previous advisory and lies near the center of the guidance envelope. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 16/1500Z 19.9N 135.5W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 17/0000Z 20.3N 136.3W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 17/1200Z 20.5N 137.2W 25 KT 30 MPH 36H 18/0000Z 20.4N 137.9W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 18/1200Z 20.2N 138.2W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 19/1200Z 19.5N 138.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 20/1200Z 19.5N 138.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 21/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Beven

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Hurricane DOLORES Forecast Discussion Number 20

2015-07-16 10:45:39| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 300 AM MDT THU JUL 16 2015 000 WTPZ45 KNHC 160845 TCDEP5 HURRICANE DOLORES DISCUSSION NUMBER 20 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052015 300 AM MDT THU JUL 16 2015 Enhanced B-D curve infrared and microwave imagery show that Dolores is exhibiting annular hurricane characteristics this morning, with its distinctly symmetric, thick eyewall donut-shaped appearance, large 30 nmi eye, and a lack of well-defined rainbands. Decreasing 26-28C sea surface temperatures and light southeasterly shear appear to be promoting Dolores' cloud pattern. For this advisory, the initial intensity is held at 100 kt based on a blend of subjective and objective satellite intensity estimates. Because of Dolores' annular structure, only slight weakening is expected through the 36 hour period. Afterward, a sharp decrease in SSTs, a more stable thermodynamic environment, and increasing vertical shear should cause the cyclone to weaken more quickly. After smoothing out the trochoidal oscillations, the long-term motion is estimated to be 300/6. There is no significant change to the track forecast philosophy. Dolores should continue to be steered by the flow produced by the building subtropical ridge and move on a west-northwestward to an eventual northwestward heading around the western periphery of the anticyclone. Much uncertainty and large spread exists in the guidance suite beyond 72 hours. Global and hurricane models either show a turn toward the west-northwest in response to the building ridge or, a northwest to north-northwest track due to a mid- to upper-level trough approaching from the northwest. The NHC forecast basically splits these two solutions and follows the GFEX and TVCN multi-models, and is a little to the right of the previous advisory. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 16/0900Z 19.5N 111.4W 100 KT 115 MPH 12H 16/1800Z 20.0N 112.4W 95 KT 110 MPH 24H 17/0600Z 20.6N 113.9W 90 KT 105 MPH 36H 17/1800Z 21.0N 115.6W 80 KT 90 MPH 48H 18/0600Z 21.6N 117.1W 65 KT 75 MPH 72H 19/0600Z 24.5N 120.1W 45 KT 50 MPH 96H 20/0600Z 28.0N 122.5W 35 KT 40 MPH 120H 21/0600Z 30.5N 124.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Roberts

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