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Tropical Storm Enrique Forecast Discussion Number 17
2021-06-29 10:46:49| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 300 AM MDT Tue Jun 29 2021 000 WTPZ45 KNHC 290846 TCDEP5 Tropical Storm Enrique Discussion Number 17 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP052021 300 AM MDT Tue Jun 29 2021 Enrique has lost most of its associated deep convection, likely due to the entrainment of drier and more stable air. Upwelling of cooler waters beneath the slow-moving circulation may also be a contributing factor. Based on data from a couple of earlier scatterometer overpasses, the intensity was reduced to 45 kt. Given the dearth of convection, this may be a generous estimate for the current intensity of the storm. Since the thermodynamic environment is not expected to become any more conducive, weakening is forecast. The official intensity forecast is similar to the previous one and close to the model consensus. It should be noted that Enrique could weaken more rapidly than expected if significant deep convection does not redevelop within the circulation soon. Therefore, the intensity forecast for this system is highly uncertain. The center has become very difficult to locate and the fixes have considerable spread, making the initial position and motion estimates quite uncertain. Based heavily on continuity, the initial motion estimate is a continued northwestward track, or 325/5 kt. The flow to the west of a mid-level ridge over northwestern Mexico should steer Enrique generally northwestward for the next couple of days, taking the system near or over the southern Baja California Peninsula. Given the uncertainty as to whether Enrique will maintain tropical storm intensity by the time it moves near or over southern Baja, it is decided to continue with a Tropical Storm Watch for that area, and not upgrade it to a warning at this time. Key Messages: 1. The outer rainbands of Enrique are likely to produce heavy rains across a portion of western Mexico and the southern Baja Peninsula during the next couple days. The additional rainfall over the mainland of Mexico will continue to pose a threat of flash flooding and mudslides. 2. Tropical-storm-force winds are possible over portions of the southern portion of the Baja California Peninsula beginning tonight, and a Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for that area. 3. Swells generated by Enrique will affect the southwestern coast of Mexico during the next day or two, and will spread northward along portions of the coast of southern Baja California Peninsula and Gulf of California during the next couple of days. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 29/0900Z 21.6N 107.6W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 29/1800Z 22.5N 108.3W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 30/0600Z 23.5N 109.4W 35 KT 40 MPH 36H 30/1800Z 24.5N 110.5W 30 KT 35 MPH 48H 01/0600Z 25.2N 111.7W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND 60H 01/1800Z 25.5N 112.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 02/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Pasch
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Tropical Storm Enrique Forecast Discussion Number 16
2021-06-29 04:39:44| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 900 PM MDT Mon Jun 28 2021 000 WTPZ45 KNHC 290239 TCDEP5 Tropical Storm Enrique Discussion Number 16 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP052021 900 PM MDT Mon Jun 28 2021 Deep convection associated with Enrique has continued to wane this evening, with the cloud tops warming and the center located just to the northwest of the remaining convective activity. The subjective Dvorak T-numbers from TAFB and SAB continue to decrease along with the UW/CIMSS objective T-numbers. A blend of these and an earlier SATCON estimate yields an initial wind speed of 50 kt for this advisory. Although the center of Enrique is located over SSTs of around 28C, the storm has been entraining a drier and more stable air mass located just to its west, which has led to the loss of organization. Bursts of deep convection will likely continue during the next day or so while the storm moves northwestward near a sharp SST gradient. However, steady weakening is anticipated during Enrique's approach to the southern portion of the Baja peninsula. Land interaction and decreasing SSTs should cause the system to degenerate into a remnant low in a couple of days, and dissipate within 72 hours. Enrique is moving northwestward or 320/5 kt. The track forecast reasoning is unchanged from before. A low- to mid-level ridge to the northeast of the storm should steer Enrique northwestward over the next couple of days. The track guidance has shifted back to the east this cycle and the NHC forecast has been nudged in that direction, but it lies a little to the west of the latest multi-model consensus aids. The guidance has again trended faster and the NHC forecast has been adjusted accordingly. Key Messages: 1. The outer rainbands of Enrique are likely to produce heavy rains across a portion of western Mexico and the southern Baja Peninsula during the next couple days. The rainfall over the mainland of Mexico continue to pose a threat of life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides. 2. Tropical-storm-force winds are possible over portions of the southern portion of the Baja California Peninsula beginning Tuesday night and a Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for that area. 3. Swells generated by Enrique will affect the southwestern coast of Mexico during the next day or two, and will spread northward along portions of the coast of southern Baja California Peninsula and Gulf of California during the next couple of days. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 29/0300Z 21.1N 107.4W 50 KT 60 MPH 12H 29/1200Z 21.7N 108.0W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 30/0000Z 22.6N 108.9W 35 KT 40 MPH 36H 30/1200Z 23.6N 109.9W 30 KT 35 MPH 48H 01/0000Z 24.5N 111.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND 60H 01/1200Z 25.0N 112.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND 72H 02/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Brown
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Tropical Depression Danny Forecast Discussion Number 3
2021-06-29 04:32:42| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 PM EDT Mon Jun 28 2021 000 WTNT44 KNHC 290232 TCDAT4 Tropical Depression Danny Discussion Number 3 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL042021 1100 PM EDT Mon Jun 28 2021 Danny made landfall just north of Hilton Head on Pritchards Island, South Carolina, around 2330 UTC with maximum winds of about 35 kt. Since then, the storm moved inland across extreme southern South Carolina and is now located over east-central Georgia. Surface observations and Doppler radar data indicate that Danny has weakened, and the cyclone has now been downgraded to a 30-kt tropical depression. Heavy rains associated with the depression are spreading westward across central Georgia. The weakening cyclone is moving west-northwestward at about 13 kt. This general motion is expected to continue overnight and Tuesday taking Danny, or its remnants, across Georgia and northern Alabama. As the system continues its trek inland, additional weakening is forecast, and Danny will likely dissipate by late Tuesday. Key Messages: 1. Heavy rainfall is possible from coastal southern South Carolina and Georgia, inland across the Piedmont of Georgia into northeast Alabama. Isolated flooding is possible across urban areas of the southern South Carolina and Georgia coasts. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 29/0300Z 32.6N 81.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND 12H 29/1200Z 33.3N 83.8W 20 KT 25 MPH...INLAND 24H 30/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Cangialosi
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Tropical Storm Danny Forecast Discussion Number 2
2021-06-28 22:42:41| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 PM EDT Mon Jun 28 2021 000 WTNT44 KNHC 282042 TCDAT4 Tropical Storm Danny Discussion Number 2 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL042021 500 PM EDT Mon Jun 28 2021 Deep convection has exploded this afternoon over the center of what is now Tropical Storm Danny. Reconnaissance aircraft measured 49 kt winds at the 850-mb fight-level, which equals roughly a 39-kt surface wind. In addition, Doppler velocity data from the Charleston radar measured average velocities of 49 kt at 6000-7000 ft, which also equate to about 40-kt surface winds. A reconnaissance aircraft dropsonde also measured a central pressure of 1009 mb. Based on these data, the advisory intensity has been increased to 40 kt. The initial motion estimate is 290/14 kt. Tiny Danny is forecast to maintain a west-northwestward motion for the next day or so, with landfall expected along the southern coast of South Carolina likely occurring by 0000 UTC this evening. The small tropical cyclone should continue to move inland across southern South Carolina and eastern Georgia tonight and early Tuesday, with dissipation expected over the mountains of northern Georgia by Tuesday night or early Wednesday. The new NHC track forecast is a little to the left of the previous advisory track, and lies close to the consensus track models HCCA, TVCA, and GFEX. No additional strengthening is anticipated before Danny makes landfall. Rapid weakening should commence shortly after landfall, with Danny likely becoming a remnant low by Tuesday morning. The official intensity forecast follows a blend for the Decay-SHIPS statistical model for inland tropical cyclones, and the intensity consensus models IVCN and HCCA. Key Messages: 1. Heavy rainfall is possible from coastal southern South Carolina and Georgia, inland across the Piedmont of Georgia into northeast Alabama. Isolated flooding is possible across urban areas of the southern South Carolina and Georgia coasts. 2. Tropical-storm-force winds are expected across portions of the South Carolina coast late this afternoon and tonight where a Tropical Storm Warning is in effect. 3. Swells generated by Tropical Storm Danny are expected to affect portions of the South Carolina coast through tonight. These swells could cause life-threatening surf and rip currents. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 28/2100Z 32.3N 80.1W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 29/0600Z 33.2N 82.4W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND 24H 29/1800Z 34.3N 85.2W 15 KT 15 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND 36H 30/0600Z...DISSIPATED INLAND $$ Forecaster Stewart
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Tropical Depression Four Forecast Discussion Number 1
2021-06-28 16:51:59| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 AM EDT Mon Jun 28 2021 000 WTNT44 KNHC 281451 TCDAT4 Tropical Depression Four Discussion Number 1 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL042021 1100 AM EDT Mon Jun 28 2021 The area of disturbed weather and associated low pressure system that the NHC has been tracking the past couple of days has developed into a tropical depression off the coast of South Carolina this morning. The inner-core cloud structure noted in high-resolution visible satellite imagery has continued to tighten up and deep convection with cloud top temperatures of -60 deg C have persisted northwest through southwest of the center, yielding a Dvorak shear pattern intensity estimate of 30 kt. This intensity estimate is consistent with overnight scatterometer surface wind data of 31-32 kt just north of the well-defined center. The initial motion estimate is 300/14 kt. The small tropical cyclone is expected to maintain a west-northwestward to northwestward motion for the next couple of days, resulting in landfall along the south-central coast of South Carolina later this evening. The small cyclone is expected to dissipate by 48 hours, if not sooner, when the system will be located over the southern Appalachian Mountains. The NHC track forecast lies close to the tightly packed GFS- and ECMWF-based Beta-Advection models due to the lack of any significant inner-core convection, which is allowing the cyclone to be steered more by the low-level flow rather than the deep-layer flow as depicted by the global and regional models. There is a narrow window of opportunity this afternoon for the depression to strengthen into a tropical storm before landfall occurs. During the next few hours, the small cyclone will be passing over the warmer Gulf Stream where sea-surface temperatures are around 28 deg C. In addition, as the outer wind field begins to interact with land, low-level frictional convergence along and just offshore should help to generate deep convection just prior to landfall, helping to spin up the wind field. The NHC forecast shows the system becoming a tropical storm before landfall, and as a result a tropical storm warning has been issued for a portion of the South Carolina coast. An Air Force Reserve Unit reconnaissance aircraft will investigate the system this afternoon beginning around 1800 UTC, providing more detailed information on the cyclone's intensity. Key Messages: 1. Heavy rainfall is possible from coastal southern South Carolina and Georgia, inland across the Piedmont of Georgia into northeast Alabama. Isolated flooding is possible across urban areas of the southern South Carolina and Georgia coasts. 2. Tropical-storm-force winds are expected across portions of the South Carolina coast late this afternoon and tonight where a Tropical Storm Warning is in effect. 3. Swells generated by the depression are expected to affect portions of the South Carolina coast this afternoon and tonight. These swells could cause life-threatening surf and rip currents. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 28/1500Z 31.9N 78.3W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 29/0000Z 32.8N 80.6W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND 24H 29/1200Z 34.2N 83.3W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND 36H 30/0000Z 35.2N 85.6W 15 KT 15 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND 48H 30/1200Z...DISSIPATED INLAND $$ Forecaster Stewart
Tags: number
discussion
tropical
depression
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