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Tropical Storm Enrique Forecast Discussion Number 4

2021-06-26 04:39:10| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 1000 PM CDT Fri Jun 25 2021 000 WTPZ45 KNHC 260238 TCDEP5 Tropical Storm Enrique Discussion Number 4 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP052021 1000 PM CDT Fri Jun 25 2021 Enrique's cloud pattern has continued to improve since this afternoon. There has been a notable increase in banding, and the Central Dense Overcast has become more symmetric. In addition, a SSMIS microwave overpass from shortly before 0000 UTC revealed an improved inner core structure with a band of deep convection wrapping about three-quarters of the way around the center. The latest subjective Dvorak T-numbers from SAB and TAFB are T3.5 (55 kt) and T3.0 (45 kt), respectively. Given the improvement in structure the intensity was increased to 55 kt on the 0000 UTC intermediate advisory and remains at that value for this advisory. The tropical storm is forecast to remain within an environment of low vertical wind shear and over warm sea surface temperatures during the next 24 to 36 hours. Those favorable conditions along with Enrique's improved inner core structure are likely to result in a period of rapid strengthening during the next day or so. In fact, the SHIPS guidance explicitly calls for rapid strengthening, and the latest NHC forecast follows suit. The new NHC intensity forecast calls for a peak intensity near major hurricane strength in 36 hours and lies between the SHIPS model and the slightly lower HCCA and ICON consensus aids. After 36-48 h, increasing shear, and possibly cooler upwelled waters, are likely to induce steady weakening throughout the remainder of the forecast period. Enrique continues to move west-northwestward or 295/8 kt. A mid-level ridge to the north of the storm is forecast to weaken over the next day or so which should cause Enrique to slow down and bend northwestward between 24 and 60 hours. After that time, the ridge is expected to re-strengthen causing the tropical cyclone to turn west-northwestward once again. There has been little overall change to the track guidance this cycle, and the updated NHC forecast is not very different from before. It should be noted that the GFS and HWRF models depict a sharper northward turn over the weekend and bring the center of Enrique somewhat closer to the southwestern coast of Mexico than the remainder of the guidance, however the most recent run of the HWRF has trended westward during the early portion of the forecast. Key Messages: 1. The outer rainbands of Enrique are likely to produce heavy rains across portions of southwestern Mexico during the next couple of days, which could cause life-threatening flash floods and mudslides. 2. Tropical-storm-force winds are expected across portions of southwestern Mexico tonight and this weekend, and a Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for a portion of that area. 3. Swells generated by Enrique are expected to affect the southwestern coast of Mexico during the next few days. These swells could cause life-threatening surf and rip currents. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 26/0300Z 16.3N 104.1W 55 KT 65 MPH 12H 26/1200Z 16.7N 105.2W 70 KT 80 MPH 24H 27/0000Z 17.1N 105.9W 85 KT 100 MPH 36H 27/1200Z 17.8N 106.3W 95 KT 110 MPH 48H 28/0000Z 18.9N 106.8W 90 KT 105 MPH 60H 28/1200Z 19.8N 107.5W 75 KT 85 MPH 72H 29/0000Z 20.5N 108.3W 65 KT 75 MPH 96H 30/0000Z 21.5N 109.7W 50 KT 60 MPH 120H 01/0000Z 22.5N 111.0W 35 KT 40 MPH $$ Forecaster Brown

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Tropical Storm Enrique Forecast Discussion Number 3

2021-06-25 22:57:05| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 400 PM CDT Fri Jun 25 2021 000 WTPZ45 KNHC 252056 TCDEP5 Tropical Storm Enrique Discussion Number 3 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP052021 400 PM CDT Fri Jun 25 2021 Enrique has continued to become better organized on satellite imagery over the course of the day. After exhibiting a prominent banding pattern for the majority of the morning and early afternoon, a recent convective burst with cloud tops below -80 C has developed over the center and could be the start of an organized central dense overcast. While there have not been any recent microwave passes to assess the structure underneath the cirrus canopy, scatterometer wind data over the center of Enrique indicated the extent of 34-kt winds east of the center had expanded, with a peak wind retrieval of 38 kt. Dvorak satellite estimates from TAFB were T3.0/45 kt, while SAB was T2.5/35 kt. The objective Advanced Dvorak Technique (ADT) has also been gradual increasing with its latest estimate at T3.5/55 kt. Taking a blend of Dvorak estimates with the somewhat lower scatterometer wind data yields an estimated intensity of 45 kt. Enrique has maintained a west-northwest heading for the majority of the day, but seems to be gradually slowing down at 290/7 kt. The track philosophy for the next few days has remained unchanged, with a weakening mid-level ridge to the north of Enrique likely to lead to a slowdown in the storm's forward motion with a northwest bend in its track. After 72 h, Enrique is expected to begin bending back to the west-northwest as the mid-level ridge re-intensifies, and the cyclone becomes more influenced by low-level steering flow while becoming a more shallow vortex. The latest track guidance has shifted a bit to the right after the first 24 h and the NHC track forecast follows suit, in good agreement with the track guidance consensus, but still remains left of the GFS and HWRF models. Satellite imagery this afternoon suggests Enrique is poised to intensify in the short term, while the storm remains embedded in a favorable environment of low vertical wind shear, high mid-level humidity, and warm sea-surface temperatures. In fact, the latest SHIPS-RI guidance indicates there is a 72 percent chance of a 45-kt wind increase over the next 36 hours, nearly 11 times its climatological value. The latest NHC intensity forecast is just below this value, calling for a 85-kt peak intensity in 36 hours. After 48 hours, increasing easterly shear, and possibly cooler upwelled waters as Enrique moves slowly northwestward is expected to begin a weakening trend. The latest NHC intensity forecast is in good agreement with the intensity consensus, but remains just a little below the HFIP corrected consensus approach (HCCA). The expanded wind radii east of Enrique has prompted the issuance of Tropical Storm Warnings from Zihuatanejo northwestward to Cabo Corrientes. Key Messages: 1. The outer rainbands of Enrique are likely to produce heavy rains across portion of southwestern Mexico during the next couple of days, which could cause life-threatening flash floods and mudslides. 2. Tropical-storm-force winds are expected across portions of southwestern Mexico tonight and this weekend, and a Tropical Storm Warning has been issued for a portion of that area. 3. Swells generated by Enrique are expected to affect the southwestern coast of Mexico during the next few days. These swells could cause life-threatening surf and rip currents. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 25/2100Z 15.9N 103.3W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 26/0600Z 16.3N 104.4W 55 KT 65 MPH 24H 26/1800Z 16.7N 105.4W 70 KT 80 MPH 36H 27/0600Z 17.2N 105.8W 85 KT 100 MPH 48H 27/1800Z 18.0N 106.3W 85 KT 100 MPH 60H 28/0600Z 18.9N 106.8W 75 KT 85 MPH 72H 28/1800Z 19.8N 107.6W 65 KT 75 MPH 96H 29/1800Z 21.0N 109.2W 50 KT 60 MPH 120H 30/1800Z 21.9N 110.5W 35 KT 40 MPH $$ Forecaster Papin/Cangialosi

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Tropical Storm Enrique Forecast Discussion Number 2

2021-06-25 16:57:24| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 1000 AM CDT Fri Jun 25 2021 180 WTPZ45 KNHC 251457 TCDEP5 Tropical Storm Enrique Discussion Number 2 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP052021 1000 AM CDT Fri Jun 25 2021 Convective coverage with Enrique has increased further this morning with a number of prominent banding features along the storm's south and eastern sides. This improvement in structure is also confirmed by a 1045 UTC 37 GHz GMI overpass, which suggested a formative inner core as the convective banding increased. The latest round of subjective Dvorak satellite estimates were both T2.5/35 kt from TAFB and SAB, while the UW-CIMSS advanced Dvorak technique (ADT) estimate was up to T3.0/45 kt. Blending these estimates but learning towards the higher ADT value yields a current intensity of 40 kt for this advisory. The current motion of Enrique continues to the west-northwest at 290/8 kt, while the storm remains steered by a large mid-level ridge anchored over Mexico. However, this ridge will shift westward and weaken to the north of Enrique as a mid- to upper-level trough digs southward into the southwestern US. This pattern will likely slow down the steering currents over Enrique and allow for a gradual turn to the northwest late this weekend and early next week. Later in the forecast, Enrique's track is expected to bend back to the west-northwest as it becomes an increasingly shallow cyclone and the low- to mid-level ridging builds back in over Mexico. The latest NHC track forecast is in decent agreement with the track consensus, but some spread remains, with the GFS and HMON still on the right side of the guidance envelope. The current light northeasterly shear impacting Enrique is forecast to decrease even further over the next 24 to 48 hours while the cyclone traverses warm 29-30 C sea-surface temperatures and remains embedded in a moist mid-level environment. These conditions favor at least steady intensification, and Enrique is now forecast to become a hurricane in 24 hours and reach a peak intensity of 85 kt in 48 hours. Thereafter, easterly vertical wind shear could increase somewhat over the system, and its slow forward motion could lead to some upwelling of cooler waters underneath the cyclone. Thus, weakening is forecast to begin after 48 hours. By the end of the forecast period, sea-surface temperatures drop sharply along Enrique's expected track and more rapid weakening is likely. The latest NHC intensity forecast is higher than the previous one during the first 48 hours, but is still a little below the reliable HFIP corrected consensus approach (HCCA). Thereafter, the rate of weakening has been increased a bit as the thermodynamic environment becomes increasingly unfavorable. While the center of Enrique is still forecast to remain offshore of the southwestern coast of Mexico, the large wind radii predicted on the eastern side of the storm necessitates the issuance of a Tropical Storm Watch from Punta San Telmo northwestward to Cabo Corrientes. In addition, outer rainbands are expected to cause locally heavy rains across portions of southwestern Mexico. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 25/1500Z 15.6N 102.5W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 26/0000Z 15.9N 103.6W 50 KT 60 MPH 24H 26/1200Z 16.4N 104.6W 65 KT 75 MPH 36H 27/0000Z 16.9N 105.4W 80 KT 90 MPH 48H 27/1200Z 17.6N 106.1W 85 KT 100 MPH 60H 28/0000Z 18.5N 106.7W 75 KT 85 MPH 72H 28/1200Z 19.2N 107.5W 65 KT 75 MPH 96H 29/1200Z 20.1N 108.6W 50 KT 60 MPH 120H 30/1200Z 20.9N 109.8W 40 KT 45 MPH $$ Forecaster Papin/Cangialosi

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Remnants of Claudette Forecast Discussion Number 18

2021-06-22 04:57:34| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 1100 PM AST Mon Jun 21 2021 000 WTNT43 KNHC 220257 TCDAT3 Remnants Of Claudette Discussion Number 18 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL032021 1100 PM AST Mon Jun 21 2021 Recent scatterometer data show that the system has opened up into a northwest to southeast-oriented trough. Therefore Claudette has dissipated as a tropical cyclone and this is the last advisory. The remnants of Claudette should continue to move rapidly east-northeastward and weaken over the next day or so. Additional information on the remnants of Claudette can be found in High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service, under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01 KWBC, and online at ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.php FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 22/0300Z 39.0N 69.0W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 22/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Pasch

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Tropical Storm Claudette Forecast Discussion Number 17

2021-06-21 22:32:33| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 500 PM EDT Mon Jun 21 2021 000 WTNT43 KNHC 212032 TCDAT3 Tropical Storm Claudette Discussion Number 17 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL032021 500 PM EDT Mon Jun 21 2021 Claudette's low-level center passed over or near buoy 44014 (east of Virginia Beach) around 1400 UTC, and was associated with a sharp south-to-north wind shift and an estimated pressure of 1004 mb. In addition, buoy 41001, located in the southeastern quadrant of the cyclone's circulation, reported a 1-minute sustained wind of 39 kt at around 1600 UTC. Based on these data, the intensity has been increased to 40 kt, which is supported by a satellite classification of T2.5/35 kt from TAFB. The initial motion estimate is 060/25 kt. Claudette is expected to continue in a general east-northeastward direction through tonight ahead of a deep-layer trough and associated frontal system that is moving across the eastern United States. By early Tuesday, the cyclone is forecast move northeastward at a slightly faster forward speed over the colder waters of the far northwestern Atlantic. The new NHC track forecast is similar to the previous advisory track, and lies down the center of the tightly packed track model guidance suite. Claudette has likely peaked in intensity, and little change in strength is expected due to the cyclone currently moving over sub-23-deg-C sea-surface temperatures with even colder water ahead of the storm. Claudette is forecast to become a post-tropical extratropical low in the 12-24-hour period, but that transition could occur sooner. The latest official intensity forecast is similar to the previous advisory, and closely follows the intensity consensus models HCCA, FSSE, and IVCN. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 21/2100Z 37.5N 72.1W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 22/0600Z 39.5N 67.9W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 22/1800Z 42.8N 62.2W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 36H 23/0600Z 46.0N 56.9W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 48H 23/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Stewart

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