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Hurricane Enrique Forecast Discussion Number 9

2021-06-27 10:41:09| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 300 AM MDT Sun Jun 27 2021 113 WTPZ45 KNHC 270841 TCDEP5 Hurricane Enrique Discussion Number 9 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP052021 300 AM MDT Sun Jun 27 2021 The central dense overcast of the hurricane has not expanded much over the past several hours, and the eye is not apparent on geostationary satellite images. However, Enrique has well-defined convective banding features over most of its circulation. Taking a blend of the latest Dvorak intensity estimates from TAFB and SAB gives a current intensity estimate of 80 kt. A little more strengthening could occur today, as reflected in the official forecast. In 24 to 48 hours, cooler sea surface temperatures and decreasing oceanic heat content should cause a weakening trend to commence. Later in the forecast period, the cyclone should be entraining a drier and more stable air mass near the southern Baja California peninsula, which should also contribute to the weakening process. The official intensity forecast is similar to the previous one and close to the HFIP Corrected Consensus and FSU Superensemble predictions. Enrique has moved quite slowly overnight and the initial motion estimate is north-northwestward, or 330/3 kt. Steering currents are expected to remain rather weak over the next few days. The system is expected to move on a north-northwestward to northwestward heading, in the general direction of a weak mid-level trough over extreme northwestern Mexico, for the next 2-3 days. Later in the forecast period, the weakening cyclone's track should gradually bend to the left under the influence of the lower-tropospheric environmental flow. The official track forecast is a blend of the latest GFS and ECMWF solutions, and not too different from the previous NHC track. Key Messages: 1. The outer rainbands of Enrique are likely to produce heavy rains across a portion of southwestern Mexico during the next couple of days, which would likely cause life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides. 2. Tropical-storm-force winds are expected to continue across portions of southwestern Mexico through early Monday. Although the core of Enrique is still forecast to remain just offshore, any deviation to the right of the forecast track or expansion of the wind field could bring even stronger winds onshore over a portion of the southwestern coast of Mexico. Therefore, a Hurricane Watch is in effect for a portion of that area. 3. Swells generated by Enrique are expected to affect the southwestern coast of Mexico during the next few days. These swells could cause life-threatening surf and rip currents. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 27/0900Z 17.6N 106.0W 80 KT 90 MPH 12H 27/1800Z 18.5N 106.1W 85 KT 100 MPH 24H 28/0600Z 19.4N 106.6W 80 KT 90 MPH 36H 28/1800Z 20.1N 107.2W 70 KT 80 MPH 48H 29/0600Z 20.7N 107.7W 65 KT 75 MPH 60H 29/1800Z 21.3N 108.2W 55 KT 65 MPH 72H 30/0600Z 22.1N 109.0W 45 KT 50 MPH 96H 01/0600Z 23.5N 110.5W 30 KT 35 MPH 120H 02/0600Z 24.7N 112.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Pasch

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Hurricane Enrique Forecast Discussion Number 8

2021-06-27 04:49:29| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 1000 PM CDT Sat Jun 26 2021 000 WTPZ45 KNHC 270249 TCDEP5 Hurricane Enrique Discussion Number 8 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP052021 1000 PM CDT Sat Jun 26 2021 After appearing a bit ragged this afternoon, convective banding has increased in the eastern semicircle and near the center of Enrique this evening. A couple of microwave overpasses since the previous advisory have shown a ragged low- to mid-level eye feature. These observations suggest that some of the dry air noted earlier has mixed out. Although objective satellite intensity estimates have decreased, subjective Dvorak T-numbers from both SAB and TAFB remain T4.5 (77 kt) so the initial wind speed is held at 75 kt. Although Enrique has not strengthened as much as previously forecast, environmental conditions appear conducive for some slight intensification in the short term. After that time, moderate easterly shear and gradually decreasing ocean heat content along the track of the storm is likely to result in gradual weakening with Enrique forecast to weaken below hurricane strength in two to three days. A faster rate of weakening is expected later in the forecast period as SSTs fall below 26C and the cyclone entrains a drier and more stable air mass near the Baja California peninsula. This is expected to result in Enrique becoming a remnant low by day 5. Recent microwave data indicated that the center of Enrique is located a little south of the earlier estimates, which required a slight adjustment to the 0000 UTC initial position. Although the latest advisory position shows little motion since the 2100 UTC advisory, the longer-term motion appears to be 325/4 kt. The ridge to the north of the hurricane is predicted to continue weakening over the next day or so as a trough digs southward into the southwest United States. As a result, Enrique is forecast to turn north-northwestward tonight and continue on that heading through 36 hours. After that time, the ridge is expected to re-build to the northeast of the storm, and Enrique is forecast to bend back toward the northwest. The latest official forecast is fairly similar to the previous advisory, but is slightly closer to the coast of southwestern Mexico during the 24- to 36-hour time period. The new forecast is in best agreement with the GFEX model (consensus of the GFS and ECMWF), but is not nearly as far east as the GFS and HWRF, which continue to bring the storm close to or onshore the coast of southwestern Mexico. Given the slight shift in the forecast track closer to southwestern Mexico, any deviation to the right of the track or expansion of the hurricane-force wind field could bring those winds closer to the coast. Therefore, the government of Mexico has issued a Hurricane Watch for a portion of the coast of southwestern Mexico, and has also extended the Tropical Storm Warning area farther north. Key Messages: 1. The outer rainbands of Enrique are likely to produce heavy rains across a portion of southwestern Mexico during the next couple of days, which would likely cause life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides. 2. Tropical-storm-force winds are expected to continue across portions of southwestern Mexico through early Monday. Although the core of Enrique is still forecast to remain just offshore, any deviation of the storm to the right of the forecast track or expansion of the wind field could bring even stronger winds onshore a portion of the southwestern coast of Mexico. Therefore, a Hurricane Watch has been issued for a portion of that area. 3. Swells generated by Enrique are expected to affect the southwestern coast of Mexico during the next few days. These swells could cause life-threatening surf and rip currents. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 27/0300Z 17.3N 105.9W 75 KT 85 MPH 12H 27/1200Z 18.0N 106.1W 80 KT 90 MPH 24H 28/0000Z 19.1N 106.3W 75 KT 85 MPH 36H 28/1200Z 20.0N 106.8W 70 KT 80 MPH 48H 29/0000Z 20.8N 107.7W 65 KT 75 MPH 60H 29/1200Z 21.3N 108.4W 55 KT 65 MPH 72H 30/0000Z 21.9N 109.0W 45 KT 50 MPH 96H 01/0000Z 23.3N 110.4W 30 KT 35 MPH 120H 02/0000Z 24.3N 111.6W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Brown/Berg

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Hurricane Enrique Forecast Discussion Number 7

2021-06-26 22:58:20| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 400 PM CDT Sat Jun 26 2021 000 WTPZ45 KNHC 262058 TCDEP5 Hurricane Enrique Discussion Number 7 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP052021 400 PM CDT Sat Jun 26 2021 Enrique no longer appears to be intensifying this afternoon. The hurricane's structure has degraded somewhat, with little evidence of an eye on visible satellite imagery, and additional hints that dry air, seen earlier on microwave imagery, may have disrupted the inner core structure of the cyclone. Stable stratocumulus clouds can also be seen to the northwest of Enrique's core streaming underneath the cirrus canopy on the western side. Subjective Dvorak satellite estimates this afternoon were both T4.5/75 kt from TAFB and SAB. The latest objective UW-CIMSS ADT estimate was a tad lower at T4.2/70 kt. A blend of these estimates still supports an estimated intensity of 75 kt for this advisory. Smoothing out a short-term wobble more westward, the estimated motion is still on a west-northwest heading at 300/06 kt. As discussed previously, Enrique is expected to make a turn to the northwest this evening as the mid-level ridge poleward of the storm weakens, due to a strong shortwave trough digging into the Four Corners region of the southwestern US. The latest track guidance is more or less similar to the previous forecast cycle, but there are some notable eastern outliers, including the most recent GFS and HWRF runs. The latest NHC track forecast remains close to the TVCE consensus and is quite similar to the previous track forecast for the first 48 hours. Thereafter, the track guidance has been shifting a bit more rightward, and the NHC track forecast was shifted in that direction, though not as far as the TVCE consensus at the end of the forecast period. The small size of the 64-kt wind radii forecast with Enrique should keep the highest winds offshore, but any additional eastward track adjustments could require hurricane watches for portions of the southwestern coast of Mexico tonight or tomorrow. Downslope dry-air entrainment appears to be the cause of the recent disruption in Enrique's satellite structure, primarily in its eastern quadrant. In addition, the latest GFS-SHIPS guidance indicates that moderate easterly shear has increased a little earlier than expected over the cyclone. Given these negative factors, the latest intensity forecast has been sharply decreased from the previous one over the first 24 h, with only a little additional intensification expected. Thereafter, the slow forward motion of the storm upwelling cooler waters, and possible additional dry downslope flow from the higher Mexican terrain is expected to lead to gradual weakening starting early next week. In the latter portion of the forecast, decreasing sea-surface temperatures below 26 C will hasten the weakening process, with the storm degenerating into a remnant low near the tip of Baja California by the end of the forecast. Key Messages: 1. The outer rainbands of Enrique are likely to produce heavy rains across a portion of southwestern Mexico during the next couple days, which would likely cause life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides. 2. Tropical-storm-force winds are expected across portions of southwestern Mexico today and this weekend, and a Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for a portion of that area. 3. Swells generated by Enrique are expected to affect the southwestern coast of Mexico during the next few days. These swells could cause life-threatening surf and rip currents. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 26/2100Z 17.3N 105.9W 75 KT 85 MPH 12H 27/0600Z 17.9N 105.9W 80 KT 90 MPH 24H 27/1800Z 19.0N 106.3W 80 KT 90 MPH 36H 28/0600Z 19.9N 106.8W 75 KT 85 MPH 48H 28/1800Z 20.4N 107.3W 65 KT 75 MPH 60H 29/0600Z 21.1N 108.0W 55 KT 65 MPH 72H 29/1800Z 21.8N 108.7W 45 KT 50 MPH 96H 30/1800Z 22.9N 110.1W 35 KT 40 MPH 120H 01/1800Z 23.6N 110.7W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Papin/Stewart

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Hurricane Enrique Forecast Discussion Number 6

2021-06-26 17:24:15| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 1000 AM CDT Sat Jun 26 2021 000 WTPZ45 KNHC 261523 CCA TCDEP5 Hurricane Enrique Discussion Number 6...Corrected NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP052021 1000 AM CDT Sat Jun 26 2021 Corrected initial storm motion in second paragraph Enrique continues to exhibit a well organized structure on satellite imagery. First-light visible shows the formation of a ring of overshooting tops along Enrique's north and west sides, a sign that an eyewall is organizing. Indeed, a recent 1207 UTC SSMIS microwave pass showed this formative eyewall, though some dry air also appears to be wrapping around the hurricane along its eastern flank. Satellite intensity estimates this morning include subjective Dvorak estimates of T4.0/65 kt from TAFB, T4.5/75 kt from SAB, and an objective estimate of T4.3/72 kt from UW-CIMSS ADT. The initial intensity is increased to 75 kt for this advisory, favoring the higher intensity estimates based on the improvement in satellite structure since 1200 UTC. Satellite imagery suggests that the estimated motion is beginning to bend a bit rightward at 300/06 kt. As the mid-level ridge to the north of the storm weakens over the next day or so, Enrique should slow down and turn a bit more to the northwest. The large region of monsoonal southwesterly flow south and east of the hurricane may also be influencing this rightward bend in the track in the short term. The new forecast track has shifted again to the right, especially over the first 48 hours, following the track guidance consensus and close to the most recent ECMWF ensemble mean. The small size of the 64-kt wind radii forecast with Enrique should keep the highest winds offshore, but any additional eastward track adjustments could require hurricane watches for portions of the southwestern coast of Mexico later today. Conditions remains favorable for Enrique to intensify further in the short term, and the current rapid intensification cycle is expected to continue the next 12 to 24 h with the hurricane peaking at 95 kt. Thereafter, an increase in easterly shear could help import dry down-sloping flow off the higher Mexican terrain into Enrique's core. In addition, the depth of warm sea-surface temperatures along Enrique's track becomes increasingly shallow and any further slowdown in the forward motion would result in cool ocean upwelling. Thus, Enrique is expected to begin weakening after 24 h, and this steady weakening should continue through the end of the forecast period as sea-surface temperatures decrease along the forecast track. Key Messages: 1. The outer rainbands of Enrique are likely to produce heavy rains across a portion of southwestern Mexico during the next couple days, which would likely cause life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides. 2. Tropical-storm-force winds are expected across portions of southwestern Mexico today and this weekend, and a Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for a portion of that area. 3. Swells generated by Enrique are expected to affect the southwestern coast of Mexico during the next few days. These swells could cause life-threatening surf and rip currents. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 26/1500Z 17.1N 105.3W 75 KT 85 MPH 12H 27/0000Z 17.5N 105.7W 85 KT 100 MPH 24H 27/1200Z 18.3N 106.0W 95 KT 110 MPH 36H 28/0000Z 19.4N 106.4W 90 KT 105 MPH 48H 28/1200Z 20.1N 107.1W 75 KT 85 MPH 60H 29/0000Z 20.6N 107.7W 65 KT 75 MPH 72H 29/1200Z 21.3N 108.4W 50 KT 60 MPH 96H 30/1200Z 22.1N 109.5W 35 KT 40 MPH 120H 01/1200Z 22.9N 110.6W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Papin/Stewart

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Hurricane Enrique Forecast Discussion Number 5

2021-06-26 10:55:39| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 400 AM CDT Sat Jun 26 2021 666 WTPZ45 KNHC 260855 TCDEP5 Hurricane Enrique Discussion Number 5 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP052021 400 AM CDT Sat Jun 26 2021 The cloud pattern of Enrique has continued to become better organized since the last advisory, with a well-defined central dense overcast and a small, but persistent, area of cloud tops colder than -80C that may be the top of an eyewall. Satellite intensity estimates include subjective Dvorak estimates of 55 kt from TAFB and SAB and an objective estimate of 65 kt from the CIMSS ADT. The initial intensity is increased to 65 kt based mainly on the latter estimate. Although the cyclone continues to intensify, cirrus cloud motions to the west of the center suggest some shear is occurring. The initial motion is 290/7. A mid-level ridge to the north of the storm is forecast to weaken over the next day or so which should cause Enrique to slow down and bend northwestward between 24-60 h. After that time, the ridge is expected to re-strengthen, causing the tropical cyclone to turn west-northwestward once again. The track guidance has shifted a little to the right since the last advisory during the first 72 h, and the GFS model continues to show a sharper northward turn that would bring the center closer to the coast of Mexico. The new forecast track is also shifted a little to the right during the first 72 h, but it lies west of the various consensus models. Any subsequent adjustment of the forecast track to the right/east could require a hurricane watch for portions of the southwestern coast of Mexico later today. Enrique is forecast to remain within an environment of low vertical wind shear and over warm sea surface temperatures during the next 24 to 36 hours. Therefore, continued steady to rapid strengthening is likely as indicated by the Rapid Intensification Indices of the SHIPS model. The new intensity forecast calls for a peak intensity of 95 kt at 36 h, which is near the high end of the intensity guidance. After 36 h, increasing shear and decreasing sea surface temperatures along the forecast track should cause a steady weakening. Key Messages: 1. The outer rainbands of Enrique are likely to produce heavy rains across a portion of southwestern Mexico during the next couple days, which would likely cause life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides. 2. Tropical-storm-force winds are expected across portions of southwestern Mexico today and this weekend, and a Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for a portion of that area. 3. Swells generated by Enrique are expected to affect the southwestern coast of Mexico during the next few days. These swells could cause life-threatening surf and rip currents. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 26/0900Z 16.7N 104.7W 65 KT 75 MPH 12H 26/1800Z 16.9N 105.5W 75 KT 85 MPH 24H 27/0600Z 17.5N 106.1W 90 KT 105 MPH 36H 27/1800Z 18.5N 106.4W 95 KT 110 MPH 48H 28/0600Z 19.5N 107.1W 90 KT 105 MPH 60H 28/1800Z 20.2N 107.8W 75 KT 85 MPH 72H 29/0600Z 20.7N 108.5W 65 KT 75 MPH 96H 30/0600Z 21.5N 109.5W 45 KT 50 MPH 120H 01/0600Z 22.5N 111.0W 30 KT 35 MPH $$ Forecaster Beven

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