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Hurricane Enrique Forecast Discussion Number 14
2021-06-28 16:50:29| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 900 AM MDT Mon Jun 28 2021 000 WTPZ45 KNHC 281450 TCDEP5 Hurricane Enrique Discussion Number 14 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP052021 900 AM MDT Mon Jun 28 2021 The convective structure of Enrique has eroded some this morning as the hurricane appears to be feeling the effects of dry air entrainment, both from downsloping to the northeast off the higher terrain of Mexico and from stable air being entrained from the northwest. This degradation in the northern portion of Enrique's inner-core structure is also seen in an 0919 UTC AMSR2 microwave pass. The latest subjective Dvorak intensity estimates were T4.5/77 kt from both TAFB and SAB, and the intensity for this advisory was lowered to 75 kt in accordance with these estimates. Enrique's motion appears to be gradually turning more toward the left at 335/4 kt. Over the next few days, a weak low- to mid-level ridge is expected to keep the storm on a similar northwest heading. The latest track guidance is in relatively good agreement, though there have been notable leftward shifts in the HWRF and HMON models. The latest NHC forecast is a slightly farther left compared to the previous one, close to both the TVCE and HCCA consensus aids. Now that Enrique's inner core structure has become increasingly ragged, weakening is expected to continue via dry-air entrainment as the storm tracks along gradually decreasing oceanic heat content. The latest NHC intensity forecast is a bit faster in its weakening rate over the next 24-36 hours, but Enrique is still forecast to be a tropical storm as it approaches the Baja California peninsula. However, some uncertainty remains in the forecast intensity because Enrique is forecast to track along a sharp sea-surface temperature gradient, where a left shift in the track would likely result in faster weakening rate while a right shift in the track may allow Enrique to maintain its intensity longer. Given the latest forecast, the government of Mexico has issued a tropical storm watch from Cabo San Lucas to Los Barriles along southern part of the Baja California Peninsula. Key Messages: 1. The outer rainbands of Enrique are likely to produce heavy rains across a portion of western Mexico during the next couple of days, which could likely cause life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides. 2. The core of Enrique is still near but just offshore the southwestern coast of Mexico this morning and a Hurricane Warning is in effect for a portion of that area. Tropical-storm-force winds are expected to continue across the remainder of southwestern Mexico within the warning areas through today. Hurricane conditions are possible in the Hurricane Watch area today. 3. Swells generated by Enrique are expected to affect the southwestern coast of Mexico during the next few days. These swells could cause life-threatening surf and rip currents. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 28/1500Z 20.4N 106.7W 75 KT 85 MPH 12H 29/0000Z 20.9N 107.2W 70 KT 80 MPH 24H 29/1200Z 21.4N 107.7W 60 KT 70 MPH 36H 30/0000Z 22.2N 108.4W 50 KT 60 MPH 48H 30/1200Z 23.0N 109.3W 40 KT 45 MPH 60H 01/0000Z 23.8N 110.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND 72H 01/1200Z 24.5N 110.8W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND 96H 02/1200Z 25.3N 112.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND 120H 03/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Papin/Stewart
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Hurricane Enrique Forecast Discussion Number 13
2021-06-28 10:35:54| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 300 AM MDT Mon Jun 28 2021 000 WTPZ45 KNHC 280835 TCDEP5 Hurricane Enrique Discussion Number 13 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP052021 300 AM MDT Mon Jun 28 2021 Enrique's cloud pattern has changed little in organization over the past several hours. An eye is no longer apparent in geostationary satellite images, but the central dense overcast is still characterized by fairly cold cloud tops. The current intensity for this advisory is held at 80 kt, which is close to the latest Dvorak estimates from TAFB and SAB. A slow weakening trend is expected to begin soon, as the cyclone starts to move into a little less conducive environment. Faster weakening is likely to commence in 24 to 48 hours due to decreasing oceanic heat content, and entrainment of a more stable air mass. The official intensity forecast is a blend of the corrected and simple consensus model guidance and is similar to the previous NHC prediction. Latest center fixes show that the hurricane's heading is beginning to lean a little to the left and the initial motion is now north-northwestward, or 340/5 kt. A weak ridge that is forecast to develop over northwestern mainland Mexico should cause the cyclone to turn toward the northwest during the next day or two. This general motion should continue through 48-72 hours, however the steering currents are likely to remain rather weak so Enrique is expected to move quite slowly for the next few days. The official track forecast is close to the latest corrected consensus predictions, HCCA and the FSU Superensemble. On the forecast track, Enrique is expected to pass near or over the southern portion of the Baja California peninsula in 2-3 days. A Tropical Storm Watch will likely be required for a portion of that area later today. Key Messages: 1. The outer rainbands of Enrique are likely to produce heavy rains across a portion of western Mexico during the next couple of days, which would likely cause life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides. 2. The core of Enrique will continue to pass near the southwestern coast of Mexico this morning and a Hurricane Warning is in effect for a portion of that area. Tropical-storm-force winds are expected to continue across the remainder of southwestern Mexico within the warning areas through today. Hurricane conditions are possible in the Hurricane Watch area today. 3. Swells generated by Enrique are expected to affect the southwestern coast of Mexico during the next few days. These swells could cause life-threatening surf and rip currents. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 28/0900Z 20.0N 106.3W 80 KT 90 MPH 12H 28/1800Z 20.6N 106.8W 75 KT 85 MPH 24H 29/0600Z 21.2N 107.3W 70 KT 80 MPH 36H 29/1800Z 21.9N 107.9W 60 KT 70 MPH 48H 30/0600Z 22.7N 108.7W 50 KT 60 MPH 60H 30/1800Z 23.6N 109.5W 40 KT 45 MPH...INLAND 72H 01/0600Z 24.5N 110.4W 30 KT 35 MPH...OVER WATER 96H 02/0600Z 25.5N 112.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND 120H 03/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Pasch
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Hurricane Enrique Forecast Discussion Number 12
2021-06-28 04:51:24| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 900 PM MDT Sun Jun 27 2021 000 WTPZ45 KNHC 280251 TCDEP5 Hurricane Enrique Discussion Number 12 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP052021 900 PM MDT Sun Jun 27 2021 The satellite presentation of Enrique has improved slightly this evening with a ragged eye occasionally seen in infrared imagery. A couple of earlier SSMI/S microwave images revealed a double eyewall structure with the inner eyewall open to the northeast. The microwave data also revealed good banding structure over the southern portion of the cyclone. Although the eye has been apparent this evening, subjective Dvorak T-numbers from both TAFB and SAB remain T4.5 (77 kt) with objective satellite estimates slightly lower. Therefore the initial wind speed of 80 kt is maintained for this advisory. The environment ahead of Enrique is forecast to remain conducive for some additional strengthening, however the double eye structure suggests that an eyewall cycle is occuring so little overall change in strength is anticipated through early Monday. After that time, decreasing ocean heat content and the possibility of upwelling of cooler waters due to the slow motion of the hurricane are likely to lead to gradual weakening over the next 36-48 hours. Later in the forecast period, Enrique is expected to entrain a drier and more stable airmass and that along with cooler SSTs and potential interaction with the Baja California peninsula are forecast to result in a faster rate of decay in 3-4 days. The NHC intensity forecast is a blend of the slightly higher statistical guidance and the HCCA and ICON consensus aids. Enrique has been moving generally northward, but very recently it appears that the much anticipated north-northwestward turn may be beginning. The overall track forecast philosophy has not changed from the previous advisory. A ridge is forecast to build to the northeast of the tropical cyclone, which should cause Enrique to turn northwestward on Monday, and that general heading should continue for the next few days. The track guidance is in somewhat better agreement than it has been over the past couple of days and the new forecast is between the HCCA and TVCA consensus models. On the forecast track, Enrique is expected to pass near the southern portion of the Baja California peninsula in 2-3 days and interests in that area should monitor the progress of this system. Key Messages: 1. The outer rainbands of Enrique are likely to produce heavy rains across a portion of southwestern Mexico during the next day or so, which would likely cause life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides. 2. The core of Enrique is forecast to pass near the southwestern coast of Mexico tonight and a Hurricane Warning is in effect for a portion of that area. Tropical-storm-force winds are expected to continue across the remainder of southwestern Mexico within the warning areas through Monday. Hurricane conditions are possible in the Hurricane Watch area. 3. Swells generated by Enrique are expected to affect the southwestern coast of Mexico during the next few days. These swells could cause life-threatening surf and rip currents. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 28/0300Z 19.6N 106.0W 80 KT 90 MPH 12H 28/1200Z 20.3N 106.4W 80 KT 90 MPH 24H 29/0000Z 20.9N 106.9W 75 KT 85 MPH 36H 29/1200Z 21.6N 107.5W 65 KT 75 MPH 48H 30/0000Z 22.4N 108.1W 55 KT 65 MPH 60H 30/1200Z 23.3N 109.0W 45 KT 50 MPH 72H 01/0000Z 24.4N 110.0W 35 KT 40 MPH 96H 02/0000Z 26.0N 112.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 03/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Brown
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Hurricane Enrique Forecast Discussion Number 11
2021-06-27 22:57:14| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 400 PM CDT Sun Jun 27 2021 000 WTPZ45 KNHC 272057 TCDEP5 Hurricane Enrique Discussion Number 11 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP052021 400 PM CDT Sun Jun 27 2021 Enrique has been trying to form an eye in visible satellite imagery since early this morning. Each time this has occurred, the feature has filled in shortly thereafter. The overall appearance and structure of the hurricane has changed little today, and the latest Dvorak T-number from TAFB indicates that the estimated intensity remains 80 kt for this advisory. A pair of earlier ASCAT overpasses helped to confirm the size of the wind field of Enrique, and showed that tropical storm conditions were occurring within the warned area of the coast of Mexico. The data also revealed that the strongest core of winds of 50 kt or greater were about 50 n mi offshore. Enrique move a little east of north for several hours today. However, over the past couple of hours it appears that the eastward component of motion has ceased, and the initial motion is now 360/07 kt. Embedded in generally weak steering flow, Enrique is currently moving toward a weakening mid-level trough over northwestern Mexico. A small ridge should build just to the northeast of the cyclone tonight, forcing it to turn north-northwest then northwest. This northwestward motion should then continue until the system dissipates by the middle of the week. Based on the forecast track and wind radii, the core of strongest winds associated with Enrique are forecast to pass near the southwestern coast of Mexico through tonight and any deviation to the right could bring the strongest winds to the coast by late tonight. As a result, the government of Mexico has issued a Hurricane Warning for a small portion of the coast of southwestern Mexico. In about 72 h, the center of the system is forecast to be near the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula. Overall, the environment surrounding Enrique is still favorable for strengthening in the near term, and although not shown in the official forecast, some slight strengthening could still occur through tonight. On Monday, the hurricane is forecast to begin moving over waters of decreasing oceanic heat content. Due to the fairly slow motion of the cyclone over these waters, upwelling should bring cooler waters to the surface. This would induce a gradual weakening trend beginning sometime tomorrow. By Tuesday, the cyclone is expected to begin moving over much cooler waters and into a drier and stable atmospheric environment, which will hasten the pace of weakening. Most of the guidance shows Enrique becoming a remnant low in a few days. There is some uncertainty as to whether or not this transition will occur before the system reaches the southern Baja California peninsula. Therefore it is possible that a Tropical Storm Watch could be required for a portion of the southern Baja California peninsula by tomorrow. After Enrique does finally become a remnant low, it should dissipate shortly thereafter. The latest NHC intensity forecast is little changed from the previous one, and is near the SHIPS/LGEM models through 36 h and the corrected consensus HCCA beyond 36 h. Key Messages: 1. The outer rainbands of Enrique are likely to produce heavy rains across a portion of southwestern Mexico during the next day or two, which would likely cause life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides. 2. The core of Enrique is forecast to pass near the southwestern coast of Mexico tonight and the government of Mexico as issued a Hurricane Warning for a portion of that area. Tropical-storm-force winds are expected to continue across the remainder of southwestern Mexico within the warning areas through early Monday. Hurricane conditions are possible in the Hurricane Watch area. 3. Swells generated by Enrique are expected to affect the southwestern coast of Mexico during the next few days. These swells could cause life-threatening surf and rip currents. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 27/2100Z 19.0N 105.7W 80 KT 90 MPH 12H 28/0600Z 19.8N 106.1W 80 KT 90 MPH 24H 28/1800Z 20.5N 106.8W 75 KT 85 MPH 36H 29/0600Z 21.1N 107.3W 65 KT 75 MPH 48H 29/1800Z 21.8N 107.9W 55 KT 65 MPH 60H 30/0600Z 22.6N 108.6W 45 KT 50 MPH 72H 30/1800Z 23.6N 109.5W 35 KT 40 MPH 96H 01/1800Z 25.5N 112.2W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 02/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Latto/Brown
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Hurricane Enrique Forecast Discussion Number 10
2021-06-27 16:47:37| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1000 AM CDT Sun Jun 27 2021 000 WTPZ45 KNHC 271447 TCDEP5 Hurricane Enrique Discussion Number 10 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP052021 1000 AM CDT Sun Jun 27 2021 Enrique has been holding its own over the past several hours, with some warming of the cloud tops over the estimated center, suggesting that an eye is attempting to form. The northern portion of the core appears to be entraining some dry air, which is likely due to down-sloping from the offshore flow over the mountainous terrain of Mexico. Otherwise, the core of the hurricane appears well intact, and the latest Dvorak intensity estimate T-number from TAFB indicates that the initial intensity remains 80 kt for this advisory. Enrique has been wobbling on a nearly due north trajectory for the past 12 h or so, while the forward motion has appeared to increase to about 5 kt. There is little change to the forecast track reasoning. Embedded in generally weak steering flow, Enrique is forecast to move toward a mid-level trough over northwestern Mexico. This trough is expected to gradually fill in over the next day or so, causing the system to turn to the north-northwest. By late Monday and Tuesday, the weakening cyclone should turn northwestward as it becomes steered by the lower-tropospheric environmental flow. The latest NHC track forecast is very near the previous one, and is close to the TVCE consensus. Overall, the environment surrounding Enrique is favorable for strengthening in the near term. On Monday, the hurricane is forecast to begin moving over waters of decreasing oceanic heat content. Due to the fairly slow motion of the cyclone over these waters, upwelling should bring cooler waters to the surface. This would induce a gradual weakening trend beginning sometime tomorrow. By Tuesday, the cyclone is expected to begin moving over much cooler waters and into a drier and stable atmospheric environment, which will hasten the pace of weakening. Most of the guidance shows Enrique becoming a remnant low very near the time it reaches the southern Baja California peninsula, with the low dissipating a short time thereafter. Other than indicating a little faster transition to a remnant low and dissipation, the official intensity forecast is very similar to the previous one, near the high end of the guidance through 36 h, and then a blend of the SHIPS/LGEM models and the intensity consensus after 36 h. Key Messages: 1. The outer rainbands of Enrique are likely to produce heavy rains across a portion of southwestern Mexico during the next couple of days, which would likely cause life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides. 2. Tropical-storm-force winds are expected to continue across portions of southwestern Mexico through early Monday. Although the core of Enrique is still forecast to remain just offshore, any deviation to the right of the forecast track or expansion of the wind field could bring even stronger winds onshore over a portion of the southwestern coast of Mexico. Therefore, a Hurricane Watch remains in effect for a portion of that area. 3. Swells generated by Enrique are expected to affect the southwestern coast of Mexico during the next few days. These swells could cause life-threatening surf and rip currents. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 27/1500Z 18.2N 105.9W 80 KT 90 MPH 12H 28/0000Z 19.1N 106.3W 85 KT 100 MPH 24H 28/1200Z 19.9N 106.9W 80 KT 90 MPH 36H 29/0000Z 20.6N 107.5W 70 KT 80 MPH 48H 29/1200Z 21.1N 108.0W 60 KT 70 MPH 60H 30/0000Z 21.8N 108.6W 50 KT 60 MPH 72H 30/1200Z 22.6N 109.4W 40 KT 45 MPH 96H 01/1200Z 24.0N 111.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 02/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Latto/Stewart
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