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Hurricane BLANCA Forecast Discussion Number 9
2015-06-02 22:32:00| Tropical Depression LIDIA
Issued at 400 PM CDT TUE JUN 02 2015
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Hurricane ANDRES Forecast Discussion Number 22
2015-06-02 16:33:26| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 AM PDT TUE JUN 02 2015 000 WTPZ41 KNHC 021433 TCDEP1 HURRICANE ANDRES DISCUSSION NUMBER 22 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP012015 800 AM PDT TUE JUN 02 2015 Andres continues to deteriorate this morning with the coldest cloud tops limited to the eastern portion of the cloud pattern. The initial intensity is lowered to 80 kt based on a blend of Dvorak Final-T and Current Intensity numbers of T4.0/5.0. Andres is traversing cooler sea surface temperatures of 25 degrees Celsius while the drier, stable, marine layer intruding from the northwest continues to adversely affect the inner-core convection. The NHC intensity forecast closely follows the intensity consensus IVCN. Andres is expected to degenerate into a remnant low in 72 hours, however some of the deterministic and ensemble models indicate an even faster rate of weakening. The initial motion estimate is 310/9 kt. The subtropical ridge to the north of Andres should gradually weaken over the next couple of days, causing Andres to turn toward the northwest and north. Through the latter portions of the period, Andres is forecast to turn slowly east-northeastward and drift within the weak low to mid-level steering current produced by the aforementioned deep-layer trough. There are no significant changes to the previous advisory and the NHC forecast is based on a blend of the TVCE model consensus and the GFEX (GFS/ECMWF) guidance. The initial wind radii have been adjusted based on a recent ASCAT-B overpass which showed a decreased extent of tropical-storm-force winds over the southeast and southwest quadrants than earlier estimated. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 02/1500Z 17.8N 122.9W 80 KT 90 MPH 12H 03/0000Z 18.6N 123.9W 65 KT 75 MPH 24H 03/1200Z 19.5N 124.8W 50 KT 60 MPH 36H 04/0000Z 19.9N 124.9W 40 KT 45 MPH 48H 04/1200Z 20.1N 124.3W 35 KT 40 MPH 72H 05/1200Z 20.2N 122.8W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 06/1200Z 19.9N 121.2W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 07/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Roberts
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Tropical Storm BLANCA Forecast Discussion Number 8
2015-06-02 16:32:27| Tropical Depression LIDIA
Issued at 1000 AM CDT TUE JUN 02 2015
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Hurricane ANDRES Forecast Discussion Number 21
2015-06-02 10:46:30| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 AM PDT TUE JUN 02 2015 000 WTPZ41 KNHC 020846 TCDEP1 HURRICANE ANDRES DISCUSSION NUMBER 21 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP012015 200 AM PDT TUE JUN 02 2015 Satellite data indicate that Andres continues to weaken. The deep convection has become less symmetric and the eye is no longer apparent. A blend of Dvorak T- and Current Intensity numbers from SAB and TAFB yield an initial intensity of 90 kt. The hurricane will be moving over sea surface temperatures of less than 26 degrees Celsius very soon, and into a drier and more stable environment. These unfavorable conditions will cause steady weakening, and Andres is forecast to weaken to a tropical storm within 24 hours, and become a post-tropical cyclone in 72 hours, if not sooner. The global models suggest that the circulation will become an open trough in about 5 days, and the official forecast follows suit by calling for dissipation by 120 h. The initial motion estimate is 310/9 kt. The forecast reasoning from the previous advisory remains unchanged. A mid-level ridge to the north of Andres is forecast to shift eastward as a deepening mid-latitude trough approaches the west coast of the United States during the next couple of days. This should cause the tropical cyclone to move northwestward, then northward. After 48 hours, a weaker Andres is forecast to turn slowly eastward within the low-level flow. The new track forecast is essentially an update of the previous advisory, but shows a slightly faster eastward motion late in the period to be in better agreement with the model consensus. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 02/0900Z 17.2N 122.2W 90 KT 105 MPH 12H 02/1800Z 18.0N 123.3W 70 KT 80 MPH 24H 03/0600Z 19.0N 124.5W 55 KT 65 MPH 36H 03/1800Z 19.8N 124.9W 45 KT 50 MPH 48H 04/0600Z 20.1N 124.5W 35 KT 40 MPH 72H 05/0600Z 20.3N 123.1W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 06/0600Z 20.2N 121.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 07/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Brown
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Tropical Storm BLANCA Forecast Discussion Number 7
2015-06-02 10:37:01| Tropical Depression LIDIA
Issued at 400 AM CDT TUE JUN 02 2015
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