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Tropical Storm CARLOS Forecast Discussion Number 9

2015-06-12 22:35:11| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 400 PM CDT FRI JUN 12 2015 000 WTPZ43 KNHC 122034 TCDEP3 TROPICAL STORM CARLOS DISCUSSION NUMBER 9 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032015 400 PM CDT FRI JUN 12 2015 Carlos looks a little better organized this afternoon with the center now fully embedded within a more symmetric and deeper central dense overcast. Microwave images show some evidence of inner core features, but they remain fragmented. Since Dvorak estimates are unchanged, the initial intensity will remain 50 kt, but this could be a bit conservative based on recent trends. The storm continues to be stationary within an area of light steering between a mid-level trough over the western Gulf of Mexico and a ridge over northwestern Mexico. The ridge is forecast to build over central Mexico on Sunday, which should then cause Carlos to move toward the west-northwest, nearly parallel to the coast of Mexico, into early next week at an increasing forward speed. A trough over the southwestern United States should move into northwestern Mexico, which could cause the storm to take a turn toward the northwest by Tuesday. Model guidance remains in relatively good agreement on this scenario, and the latest NHC forecast is close to the previous one. The intensity forecast continues to be challenging. During the next day or so, northeasterly shear is forecast to persist, so only a slight intensification of Carlos is anticipated. Thereafter, although the shear is expected to become light, a combination of warm upper-level temperatures, drier air aloft, and possible land interaction could help keep Carlos from strengthening significantly. By day 5, cooler waters and a more stable atmosphere should help to weaken Carlos. Although most of the intensity guidance no longer calls for Carlos to become a hurricane, this guidance has had a noted low bias this season, and the GFS still shows quite a bit of intensificaton. Thus, I am inclined to stay at the upper edge of the guidance, and near the previous NHC forecast. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 12/2100Z 14.7N 100.6W 50 KT 60 MPH 12H 13/0600Z 14.9N 100.6W 55 KT 65 MPH 24H 13/1800Z 15.2N 100.9W 55 KT 65 MPH 36H 14/0600Z 15.6N 101.6W 60 KT 70 MPH 48H 14/1800Z 16.1N 102.6W 65 KT 75 MPH 72H 15/1800Z 17.3N 104.6W 70 KT 80 MPH 96H 16/1800Z 19.5N 106.4W 60 KT 70 MPH 120H 17/1800Z 22.0N 107.8W 45 KT 50 MPH $$ Forecaster Blake

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Tropical Storm CARLOS Forecast Discussion Number 8

2015-06-12 16:40:03| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 1000 AM CDT FRI JUN 12 2015 000 WTPZ43 KNHC 121439 TCDEP3 TROPICAL STORM CARLOS DISCUSSION NUMBER 8 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032015 1000 AM CDT FRI JUN 12 2015 Carlos continues to be affected by northeasterly shear with the center on the north side of the convection. While an overnight microwave pass showed some increase in organization of the inner core, radar from Acapulco and the latest satellite images suggest that the system has become less organized since then. Dvorak estimates are about the same as six hours ago, so the initial wind speed will remain 50 kt. The storm is essentially stationary, caught in an area of light steering between a distant mid-level trough over the western Gulf of Mexico and a ridge over northwestern Mexico. Little net motion is expected until late this weekend, when the ridge builds over Mexico. This pattern change should cause Carlos to move toward the west-northwest, nearly parallel to the coast of Mexico, into early next week at an increasing forward speed. A trough over the southwestern United States is forecast to dig into northwestern Mexico, which could cause the storm to take a turn toward the northwest by Tuesday. The latest NHC forecast is very similar to the previous one through three days, and then is adjusted a bit to the east to reflect the latest consensus guidance. The intensity forecast is tricky because there are a lot of competing factors. During the next day or two, the northeasterly shear is forecast to persist, so only a gradual intensification of Carlos is anticipated. Thereafter, although the shear is expected to become light, warm upper-level temperatures and drier air in the mid-levels could keep Carlos from significantly strengthening. By day 5, cooler waters and a more stable atmosphere should help to weaken Carlos. The latest intensity guidance has come down from the last cycle, which makes some sense given the limiting factors above. The official NHC wind speed prediction is reduced from the previous one, although it remains on the high side of the guidance. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 12/1500Z 14.7N 100.7W 50 KT 60 MPH 12H 13/0000Z 14.8N 100.8W 50 KT 60 MPH 24H 13/1200Z 14.9N 100.9W 55 KT 65 MPH 36H 14/0000Z 15.4N 101.4W 60 KT 70 MPH 48H 14/1200Z 15.9N 102.1W 65 KT 75 MPH 72H 15/1200Z 17.0N 104.3W 70 KT 80 MPH 96H 16/1200Z 18.7N 106.0W 65 KT 75 MPH 120H 17/1200Z 21.5N 108.0W 50 KT 60 MPH $$ Forecaster Blake

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Tropical Storm CARLOS Forecast Discussion Number 7

2015-06-12 10:53:03| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 400 AM CDT FRI JUN 12 2015 000 WTPZ43 KNHC 120852 TCDEP3 TROPICAL STORM CARLOS DISCUSSION NUMBER 7 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032015 400 AM CDT FRI JUN 12 2015 Carlos has changed little in strength during the last several hours. Infrared images and a recent GPM microwave image indicate that the center is embedded within the deep convection. The latest Dvorak classifications from TAFB, SAB, and UW-CIMSS ADT were unchanged from earlier, and support an intensity of 50 kt. Northeasterly shear of about 15 kt is expected to persist for another day or two, so only gradual intensification is predicted. Some weakening is forecast by the end of the period when Carlos is expected to approach a drier airmass and cooler sea surface temperatures. Little change was made to the previous intensity forecast, and it lies near the high end of the model guidance. The tropical storm is currently embedded in very weak steering currents and has generally been drifting northwestward during the past 6 hours or so. The steering currents are expected to remain weak for another day or so, therefore, Carlos will likely continue to meander during that time. Beyond 48 hours, mid-level ridging is expected to build to the north of the storm resulting in a west-northwestward to northwestward motion at a faster forward speed. This forecast will keep the core of Carlos on a track parallel to the coast of Mexico. The model guidance has changed little this cycle. The official track forecast is similar to the previous one and is also close to the model consensus aids. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 12/0900Z 14.7N 100.8W 50 KT 60 MPH 12H 12/1800Z 14.9N 100.8W 55 KT 65 MPH 24H 13/0600Z 15.1N 101.0W 60 KT 70 MPH 36H 13/1800Z 15.3N 101.3W 65 KT 75 MPH 48H 14/0600Z 15.6N 101.9W 70 KT 80 MPH 72H 15/0600Z 16.6N 103.8W 75 KT 85 MPH 96H 16/0600Z 18.2N 106.2W 75 KT 85 MPH 120H 17/0600Z 20.4N 107.8W 65 KT 75 MPH $$ Forecaster Cangialosi

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Tropical Storm CARLOS Forecast Discussion Number 6

2015-06-12 04:47:34| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 1000 PM CDT THU JUN 11 2015 000 WTPZ43 KNHC 120247 TCDEP3 TROPICAL STORM CARLOS DISCUSSION NUMBER 6 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032015 1000 PM CDT THU JUN 11 2015 Deep convection has expanded near the center of Carlos this evening, but the overall appearance of the cloud pattern has not changed much. The initial intensity has been nudged up to 50 kt, a little below the latest Dvorak estimates from TAFB and SAB. The intensity forecast reasoning has not changed, with some moderate shear expected to persist for the next couple of days. As a result, only gradual intensification is forecast during this time, but Carlos should still reach hurricane strength in a day or so. Some additional strengthening is forecast through 72 hours, with a little weakening shown late in the period as the cyclone begins to move over somewhat cooler waters. The intensity guidance has trended a bit downward this cycle, but the NHC forecast is largely an update of the previous one and close to a consensus of the SHIPS, LGEM, and HWRF. The GFDL is still considered an outlier due to land interaction not shown in the official track forecast. The initial motion estimate is 345/02, as Carlos has wobbled a bit north-northwestward this evening based on the latest geostationary and microwave satellite fixes. A slow north-northwestward to northwestward motion is expected during the next 36 to 48 hours while the steering currents remain weak. After that time, a deep- layer ridge will amplify over the Gulf of Mexico and northwestern Mexico, which should result in Carlos moving more steadily west- northwestward after 48 hours, followed by a turn toward the northwest by day 5. While the NHC forecast still keeps the center of Carlos offshore of the coast of southern Mexico, the forecast track has been nudged a little to the right through 48 hours and lies between the GFS, UKMET, and GEFS mean on the left and the ECMWF and HWRF on the right. Later in the forecast, the NHC track is largely an update of the previous one and is close to a blend of the GFS and ECMWF. The government of Mexico has issued a tropical storm watch from Acapulco and Zihuatanejo since the updated forecast brings tropical storm force winds very close to the coast in 48 hours. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 12/0300Z 14.5N 100.4W 50 KT 60 MPH 12H 12/1200Z 14.8N 100.6W 60 KT 70 MPH 24H 13/0000Z 15.0N 100.8W 65 KT 75 MPH 36H 13/1200Z 15.2N 101.0W 70 KT 80 MPH 48H 14/0000Z 15.4N 101.3W 70 KT 80 MPH 72H 15/0000Z 16.3N 103.1W 75 KT 85 MPH 96H 16/0000Z 17.5N 105.5W 75 KT 85 MPH 120H 17/0000Z 19.2N 107.3W 70 KT 80 MPH $$ Forecaster Brennan

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Tropical Storm CARLOS Forecast Discussion Number 4

2015-06-11 16:40:27| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 1000 AM CDT THU JUN 11 2015 000 WTPZ43 KNHC 111440 TCDEP3 TROPICAL STORM CARLOS DISCUSSION NUMBER 4 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032015 1000 AM CDT THU JUN 11 2015 The organization of the tropical cyclone has gradually increased, with a curved band of deep convection wrapping more than half way around the system's center. The intensity is analyzed to be 35 kt based upon a blend of TAFB, SAB, and ADT Dvorak estimates with consideration that the pattern recognition methods were apparently a bit biased high in comparison with the ASCAT scatterometer winds overnight. Thus the system is upgraded to Carlos, the third tropical storm of the season in the Eastern North Pacific. Even though the cyclone is over very warm waters, Carlos is likely to continue to intensify at a moderate pace due to about 15 kt of northeasterly vertical shear expected during the next two to three days. At the longer forecast times, the shear may decrease as Carlos approaches the axis of the upper-tropospheric ridge. However, a dry and more stable environment at that time may preclude substantial intensification. Given that Carlos' track now is projected to remain away from the Mexican coast for at least the short-term, it is less likely that land influences will affect the system. The official intensity forecast is based upon a blend of the LGEM and SHIPS statistical-dynamical models and is slightly lower than that from the previous advisory. Carlos is moving toward the northwest at about 5 kt. Shortly, a developing trough over the Gulf of Mexico will cause the steering pattern to weaken and Carlos should meander northward for the next couple of days. In three to four days, a deep-layered ridge will become re-established north of Carlos and help propel it northwest or west-northwestward at a slow forward speed, paralleling the southwestern Mexican coast. The official track prediction is based upon the TVCN multi-model track consensus and is just slightly southwest of that from the previous advisory. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 11/1500Z 13.6N 100.4W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 12/0000Z 14.0N 100.7W 45 KT 50 MPH 24H 12/1200Z 14.2N 100.8W 50 KT 60 MPH 36H 13/0000Z 14.4N 100.7W 60 KT 70 MPH 48H 13/1200Z 14.7N 100.7W 65 KT 75 MPH 72H 14/1200Z 15.6N 101.7W 70 KT 80 MPH 96H 15/1200Z 16.8N 104.1W 70 KT 80 MPH 120H 16/1200Z 17.7N 106.4W 75 KT 85 MPH $$ Forecaster Landsea

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