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Tropical Depression TWO-E Forecast Discussion Number 2
2015-06-01 04:36:20| Tropical Depression LIDIA
Issued at 1000 PM CDT SUN MAY 31 2015
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Hurricane ANDRES Forecast Discussion Number 16
2015-06-01 04:33:51| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 PM PDT SUN MAY 31 2015 000 WTPZ41 KNHC 010233 TCDEP1 HURRICANE ANDRES DISCUSSION NUMBER 16 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP012015 800 PM PDT SUN MAY 31 2015 The rather unexpected intensification noted earlier today has continued into this evening. Andres has a classic presentation on satellite images, with a well-defined 15 n mi diameter eye embedded within a symmetric mass of very deep convection. The current intensity estimate is set at 120 kt, which is a blend of the latest subjective and objective Dvorak analyses. Andres continues to move slowly westward, or 270/5 kt, in a weak steering current. Within 36 hours, the global models show a mid-tropospheric anticyclone building in the vicinity of the Baja California peninsula. This should cause Andres to turn toward the west-northwest and northwest at a slightly faster forward speed. After 72 hours, a mid-tropospheric trough is predicted to dig near the longitude of the cyclone. Andres should be rapidly weakening by that time, however, and will likely not respond much to the flow at that level. Therefore the official track forecast shows only a northeastward drift at 96-120 hours. This is similar to the previous forecast and leans toward the ECMWF model track Even though Andres has intensified significantly today, the numerical intensity guidance insists on a weakening trend beginning soon. The hurricane is likely to encounter a more stable and drier environment in the next day or two, and sea surface temperatures will be gradually cooling. The official intensity forecast is close to the model consensus through 72 hours, and below it afterwards since the cyclone is likely to be reduced to a remnant low over quite cool waters by that time. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 01/0300Z 15.3N 119.2W 120 KT 140 MPH 12H 01/1200Z 15.8N 120.2W 110 KT 125 MPH 24H 02/0000Z 16.7N 121.7W 100 KT 115 MPH 36H 02/1200Z 17.7N 123.3W 85 KT 100 MPH 48H 03/0000Z 18.7N 124.9W 65 KT 75 MPH 72H 04/0000Z 20.0N 126.5W 40 KT 45 MPH 96H 05/0000Z 20.5N 126.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 06/0000Z 21.0N 125.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Pasch
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2015 AT&T Byron Nelson Discussion Thread
2015-06-01 02:52:46| Telecom - Topix.net
Headin out to the tournament in a bit, wearin my crappiest sneaks, gonna be a bog out there. Lemme know if anyone here is going, would enjoy meeting you at The Pavilion.
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Tropical Depression TWO-E Forecast Discussion Number 1
2015-06-01 00:09:53| Tropical Depression LIDIA
Issued at 530 PM CDT SUN MAY 31 2015
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Hurricane ANDRES Forecast Discussion Number 15
2015-05-31 22:39:18| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 PM PDT SUN MAY 31 2015 000 WTPZ41 KNHC 312039 TCDEP1 HURRICANE ANDRES DISCUSSION NUMBER 15 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP012015 200 PM PDT SUN MAY 31 2015 The satellite presentation of Andres has improved considerably since this morning. The eye has become more distinct and warmed in infrared imagery, and is now surrounded by a ring of cloud tops of about -60C to -70C. Objective and subjective Dvorak estimates have increased, and currently range from T5.5/102 kt to T6.1/117 kt. The initial intensity has been raised to 110 kt for this advisory. Beyond the observed intensity increase today, the overall intensity forecast reasoning has not changed. The cyclone will be moving over cooler waters during the forecast period, and should cross the 26C isotherm in about 36 hours, which should result in weakening. More rapid weakening forecast at 48 hours and beyond, with Andres forecast to become a remnant low in about 4 days as the shear increases over very cool SSTs. The new NHC intensity forecast is higher than the previous one through 48 hours to account for the initial intensity, and is similar after that. The official forecast is generally close to the IVCN intensity consensus. The hurricane has jogged to the left since this morning, with an initial motion of 270/07. Andres should gradually turn poleward during the next several days as a weakness develops in the subtropical ridge around 125W. There remains a fair bit of spread in the track guidance throughout the period. The UKMET and ECMWF are initially to the left of the rest of the guidance for the first 12 to 24 hours, and the NHC forecast trends towards those aids given the more westerly initial motion. Late in the period, all of the dynamical models now show a turn toward the north and northeast, but significant spread remains. Given that Andres should be sheared apart by days 4 and 5, the NHC forecast shows only a slow northward drift, in better agreement with the ECMWF and GEFS ensemble mean. The GFS remains an outlier with a track that appears to go too far to the northeast for such a weak system. Beyond 24 hours, the new NHC track is similar to or a little to the right of the previous one, adjusted for the initial position and motion, and lies a little to the left of the multi-model consensus. The initial 34-kt and 50-kt wind radii have been adjusted based on a recent ASCAT pass. Andres is only the fifth major hurricane to form in the basin in May since reliable records began in 1970. Previous May major hurricanes were Adolph (2001), Alma (2002), Bud (2012), and Amanda (2014). FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 31/2100Z 15.3N 118.8W 110 KT 125 MPH 12H 01/0600Z 15.5N 119.7W 100 KT 115 MPH 24H 01/1800Z 16.3N 121.1W 90 KT 105 MPH 36H 02/0600Z 17.2N 122.7W 80 KT 90 MPH 48H 02/1800Z 18.2N 124.4W 65 KT 75 MPH 72H 03/1800Z 19.5N 126.5W 40 KT 45 MPH 96H 04/1800Z 20.0N 126.8W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 05/1800Z 20.5N 126.8W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Brennan
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