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Tropical Depression THREE-E Forecast Discussion Number 3

2015-06-11 10:39:56| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 400 AM CDT THU JUN 11 2015 000 WTPZ43 KNHC 110839 TCDEP3 TROPICAL DEPRESSION THREE-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 3 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032015 400 AM CDT THU JUN 11 2015 The depression does not appear to be strengthening yet. The cyclone has a broad circulation with some evidence of multiple centers. A pair of ASCAT passes at 0330 and 0415 UTC showed maximum winds in the 25-30 kt range. Given that the convective pattern has not changed much since the time of the ASCAT data, the initial wind speed is kept at 30 kt. This intensity estimate is a little lower than the Dvorak classifications from TAFB, SAB, and UW-CIMSS ADT which are all T2.5/35 kt. The initial motion estimate is an uncertain 305/7. The system is expected to slow down and turn northward later today or tonight when a mid- to upper-level trough over the Gulf of Mexico cuts off and drifts westward. The low aloft is expected to weaken this weekend, which should allow ridging to become better established to the north of the tropical cyclone. This pattern change should cause the system to turn west-northwestward and increase in forward speed in a few days. Although a fair amount of spread still exists in the model solutions, they have come into better agreement compared to previous cycles. In fact, most of the guidance has shifted south and west away from the coast of southern Mexico, and the official track forecast follows that trend. The depression is expected to remain over warm water and in a moist airmass for the next several days. These conditions support steady intensification. A slightly inhibiting factor is vertical wind shear, which is forecast by the SHIPS model to be around 15 kt for the next few days. The official intensity forecast is just an update of the previous one and shows gradual intensification through the period. This forecast lies at the high end of the guidance, in best agreement with the SHIPS model. It should be noted that the future intensity of the system is dependent on how much it interacts with land, so if the system gets closer to the coast than predicted, the longer range part of the forecast could be too high. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 11/0900Z 13.1N 100.2W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 11/1800Z 13.5N 100.5W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 12/0600Z 14.1N 100.6W 45 KT 50 MPH 36H 12/1800Z 14.4N 100.5W 55 KT 65 MPH 48H 13/0600Z 14.7N 100.4W 65 KT 75 MPH 72H 14/0600Z 15.5N 100.9W 70 KT 80 MPH 96H 15/0600Z 16.5N 103.4W 75 KT 85 MPH 120H 16/0600Z 17.5N 105.5W 80 KT 90 MPH $$ Forecaster Cangialosi

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Tropical Depression THREE-E Forecast Discussion Number 2

2015-06-11 04:44:27| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 1000 PM CDT WED JUN 10 2015 000 WTPZ43 KNHC 110244 TCDEP3 TROPICAL DEPRESSION THREE-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 2 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032015 1000 PM CDT WED JUN 10 2015 The convective pattern associated with Tropical Depression Three-E is gradually becoming better organized. However, recent microwave imagery and data from the Rapidscat scatterometer on the International Space Station suggest that the low-level circulation is somewhat disorganized, being elongated from west-northwest to east-southeast and possibly having multiple vorticity centers. Satellite intensity estimates from TAFB and SAB are 35 and 30 kt respectively. The initial intensity is held at 30 kt based on these estimates and a lack of reliable tropical-storm wind reports from the scatterometer. The initial motion is a somewhat uncertain 305/9. The depression is currently being steered by a mid-level ridge over Mexico. This feature is forecast to weaken during the next 72 hours as a large mid to upper-level trough forms over the Gulf of Mexico. This should cause the cyclone to turn toward the north and north- northeast. While the track guidance generally agrees with this scenario, there are some important differences in the models. The Canadian, NAVGEM, and UKMET models show a fast enough forward motion that the cyclone makes landfall in southern Mexico. The latest GFS run also takes the system close to the coast, but keeps it offshore at 72 hours. The ECMWF keeps the system farther offshore during this time. After 72 hours, the ridge over Mexico is forecast to build, which should cause the tropical cyclone to turn west- northwestward parallel to the coast of Mexico if it is still offshore. The new forecast track is west of the previous track based on the initial position and motion, and as a result it is farther from the coast of Mexico. However, there is low confidence in how close the center will actually get to the coast. The cyclone is expected to be in an environment of warm sea surface temperatures and light vertical wind shear during the next 48 hours, which favors steady intensification. The intensity forecast calls for the cyclone to become a tropical storm in 12 hours or less and a hurricane in about 48 hours. After that, a combination of northerly shear and possible land interaction suggests that a slower rate of intensification is likely. The new intensity forecast is similar to the intensity consensus during the first 48 hours and in best agreement with the LGEM model after that time. An alternative forecast scenario is that the cyclone makes landfall in southern Mexico, which would lead to rapid dissipation over the mountains of that area. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 11/0300Z 12.9N 99.7W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 11/1200Z 13.2N 100.2W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 12/0000Z 13.7N 100.3W 45 KT 50 MPH 36H 12/1200Z 14.2N 100.1W 55 KT 65 MPH 48H 13/0000Z 14.7N 99.8W 65 KT 75 MPH 72H 14/0000Z 15.5N 99.5W 70 KT 80 MPH 96H 15/0000Z 16.5N 102.0W 75 KT 85 MPH 120H 16/0000Z 17.5N 104.5W 80 KT 90 MPH $$ Forecaster Beven

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Tropical Depression THREE-E Forecast Discussion Number 1

2015-06-10 22:35:54| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 400 PM CDT WED JUN 10 2015 000 WTPZ43 KNHC 102035 TCDEP3 TROPICAL DEPRESSION THREE-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 1 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032015 400 PM CDT WED JUN 10 2015 Satellite imagery indicates that the deep convection associated with the low pressure system located southwest of the Gulf of Tehuantepec has become sufficiently well organized to designate the formation of a tropical depression. Therefore, advisories are being initiated at this time. The cyclone should remain in an environment of low vertical shear and over warm waters for the next several days, so steady strengthening seems to be a good bet. The official wind speed forecast is generally above the intensity model consensus. There is significant uncertainty in the longer range intensity forecast, depending on how much the system interacts with land. Center fixes have had a fair amount of scatter, and my best estimate of the initial motion is 315/8 kt. During the next 72 hours, the cyclone is likely to respond to a mid-level weakness over the Gulf of Mexico by turning northward and north-northeastward. Later in the forecast period, a mid-level ridge to the northwest is expected to cause the system to turn toward the west-northwest and move parallel the coast. The GFS model takes the system close to the coast in 72 hours, but the ECMWF and GFDL model tracks keep the cyclone offshore and are much farther to the west than the GFS solution. As a compromise, the official track forecast is close to the model consensus TVCN albeit not as far west as TVCN by 120 hours. Given the large divergence of the model tracks, this is a low confidence forecast. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 10/2100Z 12.4N 98.7W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 11/0600Z 13.0N 99.4W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 11/1800Z 13.4N 99.9W 45 KT 50 MPH 36H 12/0600Z 14.0N 99.6W 55 KT 65 MPH 48H 12/1800Z 14.5N 99.2W 65 KT 75 MPH 72H 13/1800Z 15.5N 99.0W 70 KT 80 MPH 96H 14/1800Z 16.5N 100.5W 75 KT 85 MPH 120H 15/1800Z 17.5N 103.5W 75 KT 85 MPH $$ Forecaster Pasch

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Accessory Structures Zoning Code Update Discussion Draft Summary

2015-06-10 00:51:33| PortlandOnline

Two-page summary of project and staff proposal. PDF Document, 3,334kbCategory: Accessory Structures Project

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Accessory Structures Zoning Code Update Discussion Draft

2015-06-10 00:51:33| PortlandOnline

Draft of the Code Amendments for public outreach and discussion. PDF Document, 1,687kbCategory: Accessory Structures Project

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