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Tropical Storm ANDRES Forecast Discussion Number 29

2015-06-04 10:43:11| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 200 AM PDT THU JUN 04 2015 000 WTPZ41 KNHC 040843 TCDEP1 TROPICAL STORM ANDRES DISCUSSION NUMBER 29 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP012015 200 AM PDT THU JUN 04 2015 The cloud pattern of Andres is deteriorating quickly this morning with the center of circulation becoming exposed well to the west of the dissipating deep convection. The ambiguity solution of an earlier 0222 UTC ISS-RapidScat pass showed a few believable 45 kt winds to the northeast of the surface center. Since that time, however, the deep convection in that particular area has decreased in coverage and the cloud tops have warmed considerably. Therefore, the initial intensity is decreased to 40 kt for this advisory, and also agrees with a blend of the satellite intensity estimates from TAFB and SAB. Since Andres is forecast to remain over sub-24 degrees Celsius waters and within a harsh vertical shear environment, the cyclone is expected to weaken and become a remnant low in 24 hours or less. The NHC intensity forecast, which is similar to the IVCN consensus, calls for Andres to further weaken and become a post-tropical remnant low within 24 hours, followed by dissipation in 4 days. Andres has barely moved during the past 6 hours, and appears to be drifting northeastward with an initial motion of 045/2 kt. The cyclone is forecast to turn gradually eastward later today and then east-southeastward tonight within a weak low to mid-level steering current. For the remaining portion of the forecast, the low is expected to gradually accelerate and move toward the southeast within the peripheral flow of Hurricane Blanca situated several hundred miles to its east. The initial wind radii have been adjusted based on a recent ISS-RapidScat overpass, which showed a slightly larger extent of tropical-storm-force winds over the northeast quadrant, and a smaller area over the southern semi-circle. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 04/0900Z 20.2N 124.9W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 04/1800Z 20.2N 124.8W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 05/0600Z 19.9N 124.4W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 05/1800Z 19.5N 124.3W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 06/0600Z 19.0N 124.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 07/0600Z 18.0N 122.4W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 08/0600Z...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Roberts

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Hurricane BLANCA Forecast Discussion Number 14

2015-06-04 04:44:15| Tropical Depression LIDIA

Issued at 1000 PM CDT WED JUN 03 2015

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Tropical Storm ANDRES Forecast Discussion Number 28

2015-06-04 04:43:27| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 800 PM PDT WED JUN 03 2015 000 WTPZ41 KNHC 040243 TCDEP1 TROPICAL STORM ANDRES DISCUSSION NUMBER 28 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP012015 800 PM PDT WED JUN 03 2015 Andres continues to generate a small area of convection to the northeast of the center despite being over sea surface temperatures near 24C. Satellite intensity estimates continue to decrease, and the initial intensity is set at 45 kt based on continuity from the previous advisory and a 45-kt satellite intensity estimate from TAFB. Cold water and increasing vertical wind shear should cause Andres to steadily weaken through the forecast period. The cyclone is expected to weaken to a tropical depression within 24 hours, degenerate to a remnant low in about 36 hours, and dissipate completely after 96 hours. Andres has turned northward over the past several hours with the initial motion of 010/3. The cyclone is likely to be situated within a col region with little steering flow during the next 48 hours or so with only a slow motion expected. After that time, a somewhat faster motion toward the southeast or east-southeast should occur as the large circulation of Hurricane Blanca to the east becomes the main steering influence. The new forecast track has been nudged a little south of the previous track after 24 hours and lies near the model consensus. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 04/0300Z 20.2N 125.2W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 04/1200Z 20.3N 125.0W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 05/0000Z 20.1N 124.7W 30 KT 35 MPH 36H 05/1200Z 19.8N 124.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 06/0000Z 19.4N 124.2W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 07/0000Z 18.5N 123.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 08/0000Z 17.5N 120.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 09/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Beven

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Hurricane BLANCA Forecast Discussion Number 13

2015-06-03 22:37:06| Tropical Depression LIDIA

Issued at 400 PM CDT WED JUN 03 2015

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Tropical Storm ANDRES Forecast Discussion Number 27

2015-06-03 22:33:55| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 200 PM PDT WED JUN 03 2015 000 WTPZ41 KNHC 032033 TCDEP1 TROPICAL STORM ANDRES DISCUSSION NUMBER 27 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP012015 200 PM PDT WED JUN 03 2015 Despite the limited and diminishing deep convection associated with Andres, a 1304Z RapidScat scatterometer pass indicated at least 50 kt in the western - presumably the weaker - semicircle. Thus it appears that Andres was more intense earlier today than originally analyzed. Current subjective Dvorak and the ADT intensity estimates for Andres have dropped to 35-45 kt. Given the likely low bias indicated in the earlier Dvorak estimates, the initial intensity is kept at 50 kt. Andres should continue to be convectively challenged because it is anticipated to remain over cool water, embedded in dry stable air, and affected by increasingly strong vertical shear. Steady weakening is likely and the system should become a remnant low by Friday, if not earlier, and then dissipate in about five days. The official intensity forecast is based upon the multi-model variable intensity guidance - IVCN - and is unchanged from the previous advisory. Identifying the center of Andres this afternoon is quite straightforward as the center is exposed southwest of the remaining deep convection. The tropical storm is moving toward the northwest at 5 kt, primarily due to steering induced by a deep-layered ridge to its northeast. However, the cyclone will shortly be situated within a col region with little steering flow and Andres should meander on Thursday and Friday. In about three days, the remnant low of Andres should move east-southeastward as it gets swept up the by large circulation of Hurricane Blanca to its east. The official track forecast is based upon the multi-model variable track guidance - TVCN - of which the member models remain tightly clustered. This new track prediction lies just slightly south of that from the previous advisory. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 03/2100Z 19.9N 125.4W 50 KT 60 MPH 12H 04/0600Z 20.1N 125.4W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 04/1800Z 20.0N 125.1W 30 KT 35 MPH 36H 05/0600Z 19.9N 124.9W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 05/1800Z 19.6N 124.6W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 06/1800Z 18.9N 123.4W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 07/1800Z 17.9N 121.1W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 08/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Landsea

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