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Hurricane BLANCA Forecast Discussion Number 12

2015-06-03 16:45:06| Tropical Depression LIDIA

Issued at 1000 AM CDT WED JUN 03 2015

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Hurricane BLANCA Forecast Discussion Number 11

2015-06-03 10:58:07| Tropical Depression LIDIA

Issued at 400 AM CDT WED JUN 03 2015

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Tropical Storm ANDRES Forecast Discussion Number 25

2015-06-03 10:38:05| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 200 AM PDT WED JUN 03 2015 000 WTPZ41 KNHC 030837 TCDEP1 TROPICAL STORM ANDRES DISCUSSION NUMBER 25 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP012015 200 AM PDT WED JUN 03 2015 The coverage and intensity of convection associated with Andres continues to decrease as the cyclone moves over cooler waters. The initial intensity is lowered to 60 kt, which is a blend of the latest Dvorak T- and Current Intensity numbers from SAB and TAFB. Increasing vertical wind shear, decreasing sea surface temperatures along the forecast track, and a drier and more stable airmass should cause steady weakening during the next couple of days. Andres is expected to weaken to a tropical depression in about 36 hours, and become a post-tropical remnant low shortly thereafter. The circulation is forecast to become an open trough before the end of the forecast period. Andres is moving northwestward at about 7 kt. A deepening mid-level trough to the north of the cyclone is expected to cause Andres to turn northward and decelerate today. As the cyclone becomes a shallow system, it is forecast to turn eastward, then east-southeastward in the low-level flow. The updated track forecast is similar to the previous advisory and close to the ECMWF/GFS consensus. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 03/0900Z 19.2N 124.8W 60 KT 70 MPH 12H 03/1800Z 19.8N 125.3W 45 KT 50 MPH 24H 04/0600Z 20.0N 125.3W 35 KT 40 MPH 36H 04/1800Z 20.0N 125.0W 30 KT 35 MPH 48H 05/0600Z 19.9N 124.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 06/0600Z 19.4N 123.3W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 07/0600Z 18.8N 121.7W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 08/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Brown

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Hurricane BLANCA Forecast Discussion Number 10

2015-06-03 04:46:34| Tropical Depression LIDIA

Issued at 1000 PM CDT TUE JUN 02 2015

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Hurricane ANDRES Forecast Discussion Number 24

2015-06-03 04:46:34| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 800 PM PDT TUE JUN 02 2015 000 WTPZ41 KNHC 030246 TCDEP1 HURRICANE ANDRES DISCUSSION NUMBER 24 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP012015 800 PM PDT TUE JUN 02 2015 Andres continues to weaken this evening as it moves over sea surface temperatures of 25C. Although the vertical wind shear is light, several recent microwave images suggest that the system is no longer vertically stacked, with the mid-level center located north of the low-level center. The initial intensity is reduced to 70 kt as a blend of satellite intensity estimates from TAFB and SAB, and this could be a little generous. The initial motion is now estimated to be 305/7. There is little change to either the track forecast philosophy or the forecast guidance since the previous advisory. A developing break in the mid-level tropospheric ridge to the north of the cyclone should induce Andres to turn northward and decelerate during the next 24 hours. After that time, the cyclone or its remnants are expected to turn eastward and east-southeastward as Hurricane Blanca to the southeast becomes the dominant steering influence. The new forecast track is an update of the previous forecast. A combination of decreasing sea surface temperatures along the forecast track, increasing vertical wind shear, and dry air entrainment should cause Andres to quickly weaken. The cyclone is forecast to become a tropical storm in 12 hours or less, a tropical depression in about 36 hours, and a remnant low in about 48 hours. The remnant low is expected to dissipate by 120 hours as it gets closer to Hurricane Blanca. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 03/0300Z 18.6N 124.2W 70 KT 80 MPH 12H 03/1200Z 19.2N 124.9W 55 KT 65 MPH 24H 04/0000Z 19.8N 125.1W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 04/1200Z 19.8N 124.9W 30 KT 35 MPH 48H 05/0000Z 19.8N 124.3W 25 KT 30 MPH 72H 06/0000Z 19.5N 123.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 07/0000Z 18.5N 121.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 08/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Beven

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