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Subtropical Storm ANA Forecast Discussion Number 4
2015-05-08 22:51:58| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 PM EDT FRI MAY 08 2015 000 WTNT41 KNHC 082051 TCDAT1 SUBTROPICAL STORM ANA DISCUSSION NUMBER 4 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012015 500 PM EDT FRI MAY 08 2015 Ana is in the latter stages of tropical transition with curved deep convection closer to the center, with some evidence of a shrinking radius of maximum winds. Still, the convection isn't particularly deep, and an upper-level low remains basically on top of the cyclone. Ana will remain a subtropical cyclone on this advisory, but it would not be surprising if the aircraft mission this evening found enough tropical characteristics to signal a transition to a tropical storm. The maximum winds are kept at 40 kt, which is a blend of the satellite classifications from TAFB and SAB. Ana continues to meander beneath a blocking ridge along the U.S. east coast. While the overall ridge pattern shifts slowly eastward, the western part of the ridge is forecast to build slightly over the Ohio Valley tomorrow. This will help steer Ana more to the northwest, and model guidance continues to be in good agreement in bringing Ana to the coast of the Carolinas in about two days. Only a small eastward adjustment was required to the previous forecast track near the time of landfall. A strong trough should then cause Ana to move more quickly to the north and east late Sunday and into early next week. Extratropical transition should be complete by 96 hr due to interaction of Ana with the trough and the cold waters of the North Atlantic. Some intensification of Ana is still possible since the cyclone remains parked over the Gulf Stream with cold upper-level temperatures promoting more convection than one would expect given the marginally warm waters. However, there is quite a bit of dry air around the storm, which seems to be limiting convection. Some weakening of Ana seems probable on Sunday due to the storm's motion over cooler shelf waters. The latest NHC forecast is close to the previous one, near or slightly above the model consensus. Most of the global models show a little bit of strengthening of Ana in its extratropical phase, so the intensity was raised at 96 and 120 hr. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 08/2100Z 31.7N 77.4W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 09/0600Z 31.9N 77.6W 45 KT 50 MPH 24H 09/1800Z 32.3N 77.9W 45 KT 50 MPH 36H 10/0600Z 33.0N 78.4W 40 KT 45 MPH 48H 10/1800Z 33.6N 78.7W 35 KT 40 MPH 72H 11/1800Z 36.0N 77.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND 96H 12/1800Z 40.5N 69.0W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 120H 13/1800Z 46.0N 50.0W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP $$ Forecaster Blake
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Subtropical Storm ANA Forecast Discussion Number 2
2015-05-08 10:56:17| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 AM EDT FRI MAY 08 2015 000 WTNT41 KNHC 080856 TCDAT1 SUBTROPICAL STORM ANA DISCUSSION NUMBER 2 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012015 500 AM EDT FRI MAY 08 2015 Subtropical Storm Ana has remained convectively challenged overnight with only a small cluster of thunderstorms noted revolving through the southern semicircle, and only shallow isolated convection having recently developed in the inner-core region. The initial intensity remains at 40 kt based on previous recon data and the lack of any significant change in the overall convective pattern since that flight. The initial motion continues to be a slow drift to the northwest or north-northwest at only 1-2 kt. Ana is embedded in a blocking pattern that is expected to persist for the next 3 days or so until a strong mid-tropospheric low/trough currently located over the western U.S. moves into the central and southern Plains and nudges Ana northward and eventually northeastward by early next week. During the next 48 hours, Ana is expected to move toward the southeastern U.S. at a very slow pace. The global and regional models are in remarkably good agreement on this weak steering pattern persisting through the weekend so, the official forecast track is essentially just an update of the previous advisory track and lies close to the consensus model TVCA. Water vapor imagery indicates that a tight mid-/upper-level low has finally become juxtaposed with the surface low, and the two have remained nearly stationary over the relatively warm waters of the Gulf Stream. However, intrusions of dry air into the inner core have been noted in satellite imagery and upper-air data during the past several hours, which have likely been the main reason for the lack of deep convection developing near the center. But with the lows now vertically stacked and expected to remain over SSTs of at least 25C for the next 24 hours, some slight strengthening is expected. Ana could also transition to a tropical storm during that time. By 48 hours and beyond, however, Ana's slow movement will take the cyclone over colder shelf waters of around 20C-22C, and weakening is expected due to the air in the inner core becoming more stable. Most of the global models now show Ana remaining a distinct entity through the forecast period and accompanied by winds near gale force. As a result, the forecast calls for Ana to remain an extratropical low on Days 4 and 5. The official intensity forecast is similar to the previous advisory and the Decay-SHIPS model. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 08/0900Z 31.6N 77.8W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 08/1800Z 31.7N 77.8W 45 KT 50 MPH 24H 09/0600Z 31.9N 78.0W 45 KT 50 MPH 36H 09/1800Z 32.2N 78.2W 40 KT 45 MPH 48H 10/0600Z 32.8N 78.9W 35 KT 40 MPH 72H 11/0600Z 34.1N 79.3W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND 96H 12/0600Z 37.7N 75.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 120H 13/0600Z 43.0N 65.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP $$ Forecaster Stewart
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Subtropical Storm ANA Forecast Discussion Number 1
2015-05-08 04:33:18| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 PM EDT THU MAY 07 2015 000 WTNT41 KNHC 080233 TCDAT1 SUBTROPICAL STORM ANA DISCUSSION NUMBER 1 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012015 1100 PM EDT THU MAY 07 2015 Satellite imagery shows some increase in deep convection this evening, and the low pressure system off the southeast U.S. coast is now being designated as a subtropical storm. Based on adjusted SFMR winds from a hurricane hunter aircraft that has been investigating the system, the current intensity is set at 40 kt. Data from the aircraft also show that the radius of maximum winds has decreased somewhat from earlier today, but at 80 n mi it is still too large to justify classifying Ana as a tropical cyclone at this time. Since there has been more deep convection occurring near the center over the past several hours, it is becoming more likely that Ana will make the transition into a tropical storm within the next day or so. The storm should remain situated near or over the Gulf Stream for the next 24-36 hours, which would allow for some slight strengthening. Later in the period, as the cyclone approaches the coast, weakening is expected due to the influence of cooler shelf waters. The system has not moved much over the past 24 hours and the initial motion estimate is 350/2. Ana is likely to remain located to the south of a stubborn mid-tropospheric blocking pattern for the next 48 hours or so. Global models show the block breaking down over the weekend, which should allow Ana to move inland over the southeastern U.S. Near the end of the forecast period, the system should accelerate northeastward in the flow ahead of a broad trough. The official track forecast is close to the dynamical model consensus. We appreciate the assistance of the Air Force Hurricane Hunters for providing valuable observations, given their limited resources prior to the start of the regular Atlantic Hurricane Season. Note that the name Ana is pronounced AH-nah. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 08/0300Z 31.5N 77.6W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 08/1200Z 31.6N 77.7W 45 KT 50 MPH 24H 09/0000Z 31.7N 77.8W 45 KT 50 MPH 36H 09/1200Z 31.9N 78.0W 40 KT 45 MPH 48H 10/0000Z 32.3N 78.6W 35 KT 40 MPH 72H 11/0000Z 33.4N 79.3W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND 96H 12/0000Z 36.1N 77.8W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND 120H 13/0000Z 41.0N 71.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Pasch
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A Discussion on the State of Housing in Portland
2015-05-07 22:14:43| PortlandOnline
The Oregon Opportunity Network will host a discussion of our new report and what its findings reveal about the state of housing today.
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Presto Engineering Organizes Panel Discussion On RFIC Test At International Microwave Symposium
2015-05-07 09:02:39| rfglobalnet News Articles
Presto Engineering Inc., a world leader in semiconductor engineering services and backend turnkey production services, is pleased to announce its participation at the International Microwave Symposium, May 17-22 in Phoenix. Presto’s CEO, Michel Villemain, will moderate the session titled “Millimeter Wave RFIC Industrial Test: A Roadblock for Mass Adoption?” to be held Thursday, May 21 at noon.
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