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Tropical Storm ANDRES Forecast Discussion Number 3
2015-05-28 22:37:04| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 300 PM MDT THU MAY 28 2015 000 WTPZ41 KNHC 282036 TCDEP1 TROPICAL STORM ANDRES DISCUSSION NUMBER 3 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP012015 300 PM MDT THU MAY 28 2015 The satellite presentation of Andres continues to improve, with a band of convection now wrapping about three-quarters of the way around the center. A recent ASCAT pass revealed maximum winds of about 50 kt, so the initial intensity has been increased accordingly. The scatterometer data also provided a better estimate of the size of the tropical cyclone wind field, and the tropical-storm-force wind radii have been adjusted outward. The satellite data indicate that the center is located a bit southwest of the previous estimate, but the overall initial motion remains west-northwest or 295 degrees at 10 kt. The track forecast reasoning is unchanged from before. Andres should move west- northwestward to northwestward around the southwestern portion of a mid-level ridge extending westward over the eastern Pacific from central Mexico. The 1200 UTC global models show more ridging to the north of Andres late in the period than previous runs, which has resulted in a westward shift in the track guidance. The NHC forecast has been adjusted westward, but it lies along the right side of the guidance envelope. Environmental conditions consisting of warm water and low shear should allow for continued steady strengthening during the next couple of days. Although the latest SHIPS RI index shows a lower chance of rapid strengthening during the next 24 hours than this morning, it would not be surprising if rapid intensification occurred. The NHC forecast is near the upper end of the intensity guidance and is closest to the SHIPS model. After 72 hours, Andres should begin to weaken when it encounters slightly cooler sea surface temperatures and a drier and more stable airmass. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 28/2100Z 11.6N 112.5W 50 KT 60 MPH 12H 29/0600Z 12.3N 113.6W 65 KT 75 MPH 24H 29/1800Z 13.1N 114.7W 75 KT 85 MPH 36H 30/0600Z 13.9N 115.3W 85 KT 100 MPH 48H 30/1800Z 14.9N 116.0W 90 KT 105 MPH 72H 31/1800Z 16.5N 117.7W 85 KT 100 MPH 96H 01/1800Z 17.5N 120.0W 70 KT 80 MPH 120H 02/1800Z 18.0N 122.5W 55 KT 65 MPH $$ Forecaster Brown
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Tropical Storm ANDRES Forecast Discussion Number 2
2015-05-28 16:53:56| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 900 AM MDT THU MAY 28 2015 000 WTPZ41 KNHC 281453 TCDEP1 TROPICAL STORM ANDRES DISCUSSION NUMBER 2 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP012015 900 AM MDT THU MAY 28 2015 Deep convection associated with the tropical cyclone has continued to expand this morning with a large area of cloud top temperatures colder than -70 degrees Celsius. The convection has also become better organized with an increase in banding and a developing central dense overcast. Dvorak data T-numbers from both SAB and TAFB were T2.5, which support upgrading the depression to a 35-kt tropical storm. The initial motion estimate is 295/12. Andres is located to the south and southwest of a mid-level ridge that extends from south-central Mexico west-southwestward over the eastern Pacific. This ridge is expected to be the main steering influence during the next several days, and should cause Andres to move west-northwestward to northwestward. After 48 hours, track guidance spread increases, with the GFDL, HWRF, and ECMWF models taking Andres on a more northerly track, while the GFS and GFS ensemble maintain a northwesterly motion. The NHC track forecast remains near the multi-model consensus for now. Warm water and low shear during the next 2-3 days should allow for steady strengthening. In fact, the SHIPS RI index indicates a 60% chance of at least a 30-kt increase during the next 24 hours. The updated NHC forecast calls for a faster rate of intensification over the next 36 h than the previous one. In 2 to 3 days, the cyclone will be approaching slightly cooler waters which should induce weakening by the end of the forecast period. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 28/1500Z 11.6N 111.3W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 29/0000Z 12.3N 112.4W 45 KT 50 MPH 24H 29/1200Z 13.0N 113.3W 60 KT 70 MPH 36H 30/0000Z 13.8N 114.0W 70 KT 80 MPH 48H 30/1200Z 14.8N 114.6W 80 KT 90 MPH 72H 31/1200Z 16.7N 115.6W 80 KT 90 MPH 96H 01/1200Z 18.0N 117.0W 65 KT 75 MPH 120H 02/1200Z 19.0N 118.0W 50 KT 60 MPH $$ Forecaster Brown and Barack Obama (PRESIDENT)
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Women in agriculture is focus of discussion in Fargo
2015-05-28 10:51:57| Agriculture - Topix.net
Women in agriculture is the focus of a discussion at the Fargo campus of the North Dakota State College of Science . Heitkamp says women leaders in the agriculture industry from across North Dakota also will be on hand.
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Tropical Depression ONE-E Forecast Discussion Number 1
2015-05-28 10:42:38| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 300 AM MDT THU MAY 28 2015 000 WTPZ41 KNHC 280842 TCDEP1 TROPICAL DEPRESSION ONE-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 1 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP012015 300 AM MDT THU MAY 28 2015 Deep convection has become increasingly consolidated and organized in association with an area of low pressure located well to the southwest of the coast of Mexico. Enough convective banding has formed to yield Dvorak estimates of T2.0/30 kt from TAFB and T1.5/25 kt from SAB, and a 0459 UTC ASCAT-B pass showed maximum winds near 30 kt. The ASCAT data also showed that a center of circulation appeared sufficiently well defined, allowing the designation of the low as a 30-kt tropical depression at this time. The depression lies to the south of a mid-level ridge which extends from central Mexico west-southwestward over the eastern Pacific, and its initial motion is 295/13 kt. Global model fields show that the ridge should remain firmly in place, especially to the northwest of the depression, during the next several days. This should force the cyclone to slow down considerably and move north-northwestward from days 2 through 5. There is good agreement among the track models during the first 3 days of the forecast. By days 4 and 5, however, there is more uncertainty with the GFDL and HWRF models showing a northward motion while the GFS and ECMWF show a northwestward motion. The NHC track forecast currently lies closest to the GFS model and the TVCE multi-model consensus. Regardless of the exact track, the cyclone is expected to stay well to the southwest of Mexico during the entire forecast period. Relatively low shear and warmer-than-normal sea surface temperatures should support intensification during the next 3 days or so. Of the intensity guidance, the SHIPS model is the most aggressive, making the cyclone a hurricane by 36 hours with a peak intensity near 90 kt in 2-3 days. The official intensity forecast isn't quite that aggressive, but it does lie slightly above the ICON intensity consensus. Rapid intensification isn't out of the question, and in fact the RI guidance suggests that it may be likely during the next 24 hours. In light of that, some upward adjustment to the official forecast may be needed in subsequent advisories. Weakening should begin by day 4 once the cyclone reaches colder water. Note that beginning this year, Tropical Cyclone Public Advisories, Discussions, and Updates for the eastern North Pacific will now use different time zones depending on the cyclone's current location, as follows: Central Time: east of 106.0W Mountain Time: 106.0W to 114.9W Pacific Time: 115.0W westward FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 28/0900Z 11.0N 110.4W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 28/1800Z 11.7N 111.5W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 29/0600Z 12.6N 112.8W 50 KT 60 MPH 36H 29/1800Z 13.4N 113.5W 60 KT 70 MPH 48H 30/0600Z 14.2N 114.0W 70 KT 80 MPH 72H 31/0600Z 16.0N 115.0W 80 KT 90 MPH 96H 01/0600Z 17.5N 116.0W 70 KT 80 MPH 120H 02/0600Z 19.0N 117.0W 60 KT 70 MPH $$ Forecaster Berg
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11/06/2015 - AGM, BBQ & discussion on using BS11000
2015-05-21 12:12:55| BIFM Events
Annual Regional AGM and summer BBQ BS11000 Collaborative Business Relationship
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