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Hurricane CARLOS Forecast Discussion Number 15

2015-06-14 10:35:50| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 400 AM CDT SUN JUN 14 2015 000 WTPZ43 KNHC 140835 TCDEP3 HURRICANE CARLOS DISCUSSION NUMBER 15 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032015 400 AM CDT SUN JUN 14 2015 The satellite presentation of Carlos has deteriorated overnight, with a decrease of inner-core deep convection and less well-defined convective banding features. An eye is no longer present on satellite images, and only about half of an eyewall was seen in the Acapulco radar data. Dvorak T-numbers have decreased, and using a blend of final-T and CI-numbers from TAFB and SAB the current intensity is set at 70 kt. Given that the hurricane has been over the same general area for over a day, it is likely that the cyclone is being influenced by upwelled and cooled ocean waters. This has probably contributed to the weakening, as was also seen with slow-moving Hurricane Blanca over a week ago. The north-northeasterly shear that had been affecting the system has lessened, and the shear should remain fairly weak for the next few days. Assuming that Carlos will be moving away from its cool wake soon, restrengthening should begin later today. The official intensity forecast is below the previous one, but above the available guidance. The intensity forecast in the latter part of the forecast period is highly uncertain since it depends on the extent to which the circulation will interact with the Mexican landmass in 1 to 3 days. The initial motion continues to be quite slow, or 340/3 kt. A mid-level ridge to the north of Carlos is expected to build a little over the next couple of days. This should cause a turn toward the northwest and west-northwest with some increase in forward speed in 1 to 2 days. Beyond that time the ridge weakens, so in 3 to 5 days the tropical cyclone should turn toward the north-northwest. As noted earlier, while the dynamical models generally agree on the overall pattern, there is disagreement on where and when Carlos will make landfall in southwestern Mexico. The latest ECMWF solution shows landfall within 3 days whereas the GFS shows landfall much sooner, within 1 to 2 days. Some of the other guidance, such as the UKMET model, does not show landfall at all. The official track forecast is similar to the previous one and is close to the ECMWF solution. Based on the new forecast track, the government of Mexico has extended the hurricane warning westward to Punta San Telmo. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 14/0900Z 15.8N 100.3W 70 KT 80 MPH 12H 14/1800Z 16.3N 101.0W 70 KT 80 MPH 24H 15/0600Z 16.9N 102.0W 75 KT 85 MPH 36H 15/1800Z 17.5N 103.0W 80 KT 90 MPH 48H 16/0600Z 18.0N 104.0W 80 KT 90 MPH 72H 17/0600Z 20.0N 105.0W 65 KT 75 MPH...INLAND 96H 18/0600Z 21.5N 105.5W 45 KT 50 MPH...OVER WATER 120H 19/0600Z 23.5N 106.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND $$ Forecaster Pasch

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Hurricane CARLOS Forecast Discussion Number 14

2015-06-14 04:46:12| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 1000 PM CDT SAT JUN 13 2015 000 WTPZ43 KNHC 140246 TCDEP3 HURRICANE CARLOS DISCUSSION NUMBER 14 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032015 1000 PM CDT SAT JUN 13 2015 Carlos has a somewhat ragged appearance in satellite imagery at the moment. While an eye occasionally appears, the surrounding convection is asymmetric with little convection to the northwest of the eye. This asymmetry is also seen in data from the Mexican radar at Acapulco, which shows strong bands to the east and weak bands to the west of the center. Satellite intensity estimates from TAFB and SAB remain 77 kt, so the initial intensity remains 75 kt. The initial motion is 345/2. Water vapor imagery suggests that the forecast mid to upper-level ridge is now developing over central Mexico. This should cause Carlos to turn northwestward or west-northwestward during the next 12 to 24 hours. After a couple of days, the western portion of the ridge is forecast to weaken as a mid to upper-level trough drops southward across northwestern Mexico. This should result in Carlos turning more northward on the east side of the trough. While the dynamical models generally agree on the overall pattern, there is significant disagreement on whether Carlos will make landfall in Mexico. The GFS and ECMWF models call for the center to turn northward quickly enough to make landfall in the Manzanillo-Cabo Corrientes area. On the other hand, the Canadian, UKMET, and NAVGEM models keep the cyclone offshore. The new forecast track, which is similar to the previous track, generally follows the GFS/ECMWF solutions, showing a landfall near Cabo Corrientes in about 72 hours and a second landfall by 120 hours in northwestern Mexico. Vertical shear is diminishing over Carlos, and the system is expected to remain over warm water until landfall. This should allow continued strengthening until landfall. However, the intensity guidance does not show a lot of strengthening, and Carlos' struggles to maintain an eyewall suggest some negative factor at work such as dry air entrainment. The new intensity forecast is slightly weaker than the previous forecast in calling for a peak intensity of 90 kt in about 36 hours. Landfall in western Mexico should cause considerable weakening and disruption of the circulation, and thus the intensity forecast show significant weakening after 48 hours. The intensity forecast is of low confidence due to the uncertainly in the amount of land interaction and why Carlos is currently struggling to intensify. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 14/0300Z 15.5N 100.1W 75 KT 85 MPH 12H 14/1200Z 15.9N 100.6W 80 KT 90 MPH 24H 15/0000Z 16.4N 101.6W 85 KT 100 MPH 36H 15/1200Z 16.9N 102.5W 90 KT 105 MPH 48H 16/0000Z 17.5N 103.3W 90 KT 105 MPH 72H 17/0000Z 19.5N 105.0W 65 KT 75 MPH...INLAND 96H 18/0000Z 21.5N 106.0W 45 KT 50 MPH...OVER WATER 120H 19/0000Z 23.5N 106.5W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND $$ Forecaster Beven

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Hurricane CARLOS Forecast Discussion Number 13

2015-06-13 22:34:14| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 400 PM CDT SAT JUN 13 2015 000 WTPZ43 KNHC 132034 TCDEP3 HURRICANE CARLOS DISCUSSION NUMBER 13 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032015 400 PM CDT SAT JUN 13 2015 Satellite images show that Carlos is becoming stronger. The eye is becoming better defined, with a more symmetric appearance on the latest infrared pictures. Radar data also shows a more complete eyewall, although it is still open on the north side at times. Dvorak estimates from TAFB/SAB support an intensity of 75 kt for the initial wind speed. Over the past 24 hours, Carlos has drifted northeastward toward a weakness in the mid-level ridge over Mexico related to a trough over the Gulf of Mexico. All models continue to insist that the ridge will strengthen soon, forcing Carlos more toward the west-northwest or northwest over the next couple of days. The ridge is expected to weaken again due to a trough over northwestern Mexico, which should cause Carlos to turn more to northwest by late Monday. However, since any significant westward motion has yet to materialize, the guidance continues to show a greater threat to Mexico, with many models now having a landfall within a few days time. Thus, the NHC forecast is moved to the right in agreement with the model consensus. Although the center is still offshore of Mexico through 36 hours, the hurricane-force wind radii are too close for comfort, and therefore the government of Mexico has issued a Hurricane Warning for a portion of the southwestern coast. Microwave data show that the low- and mid-level circulations of Carlos remain a little displaced from one another due to northeasterly shear. However, this shear is forecast to get rather light over the next 24 hours while the hurricane moves over waters near 30C. It appears that the environment overall is becoming more supportive of significant strengthening than earlier anticipated, assuming that Carlos moves as forecast and does not suffer from its own cold wake. This favorable environment is also reflected in the SHIPS rapid intensification index showing a 30 percent chance of a 30 kt increase over the next 24 hours. Thus, the NHC forecast is raised from the previous one, above most of the guidance, and is closest to the LGEM model. The intensity forecast at 72 hours and beyond is quite uncertain since it depends on exactly how much land interaction occurs with Carlos. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 13/2100Z 15.2N 100.0W 75 KT 85 MPH 12H 14/0600Z 15.6N 100.4W 80 KT 90 MPH 24H 14/1800Z 16.1N 101.1W 90 KT 105 MPH 36H 15/0600Z 16.7N 102.0W 95 KT 110 MPH 48H 15/1800Z 17.3N 103.0W 90 KT 105 MPH 72H 16/1800Z 19.4N 104.9W 65 KT 75 MPH...INLAND 96H 17/1800Z 21.0N 106.0W 45 KT 50 MPH...OVER WATER 120H 18/1800Z 23.0N 106.5W 35 KT 40 MPH $$ Forecaster Blake

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Hurricane CARLOS Forecast Discussion Number 12

2015-06-13 16:55:12| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 1000 AM CDT SAT JUN 13 2015 000 WTPZ43 KNHC 131455 TCDEP3 HURRICANE CARLOS DISCUSSION NUMBER 12 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032015 1000 AM CDT SAT JUN 13 2015 Satellite data indicate that Carlos has strengthened with a ragged eye becoming apparent on the latest visible imagery. In addition, radar data from Acapulco show that an eyewall has become established, although it is still open on the north side. Dvorak estimates from TAFB/SAB are 65 kt, so this will be the initial intensity. After an eastward jog overnight, Carlos appears to have resumed a northwestward drift. For the rest of the weekend, a building ridge over Mexico is expected to steer Carlos generally to the west-northwest. Thereafter, a mid-level trough near the Baja California peninsula should cause Carlos to turn northwestward. However, the hurricane is now farther to the east than expected yesterday, which has moved the track closer to the southwestern coast of Mexico. Track guidance has been steadily shifting eastward, and a few models are now showing landfall in Mexico. While I am not yet ready to show that solution, the NHC prediction has been shifted eastward to account for the greater threat to Mexico. Accordingly, the government of Mexico has issued a tropical storm warning and hurricane watch for a portion of the southwestern coast. Since Carlos is expected to remain over very warm water with decreasing shear, it seems likely that further intensification will occur over the next day or so. However, there is very poor agreement on what will occur after that time due to competing atmospheric factors and possible land interaction. The new NHC forecast stays on the upper end of the guidance and is raised from the previous one. It is worth noting that the normally conservative HWRF is above the latest NHC prediction. With Carlos becoming a hurricane, this is the second earliest on record that the third hurricane has occurred in the eastern Pacific season, one day behind the third hurricane of 1956. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 13/1500Z 14.9N 100.2W 65 KT 75 MPH 12H 14/0000Z 15.2N 100.5W 70 KT 80 MPH 24H 14/1200Z 15.8N 101.3W 75 KT 85 MPH 36H 15/0000Z 16.3N 102.2W 75 KT 85 MPH 48H 15/1200Z 16.9N 103.1W 70 KT 80 MPH 72H 16/1200Z 18.6N 105.0W 65 KT 75 MPH 96H 17/1200Z 20.5N 106.2W 50 KT 60 MPH 120H 18/1200Z 22.5N 107.5W 40 KT 45 MPH $$ Forecaster Blake

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Tropical Storm CARLOS Forecast Discussion Number 10

2015-06-13 04:35:05| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 1000 PM CDT FRI JUN 12 2015 000 WTPZ43 KNHC 130235 TCDEP3 TROPICAL STORM CARLOS DISCUSSION NUMBER 10 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032015 1000 PM CDT FRI JUN 12 2015 Carlos has changed little in organization since the last advisory. The deep convection in satellite imagery is asymmetric, with the coldest cloud tops currently east of the center. In addition, data from the Mexican radar at Acapulco shows that the eyewall is having trouble becoming a closed ring around the 15-20 n mi wide eye. These conditions are likely due to continued moderate northeasterly vertical wind shear and perhaps some dry air entrainment. Satellite intensity estimates from TAFB and SAB remain 55 kt and 45 kt respectively, so the initial intensity remains 50 kt. The center of Carlos has made an eastward turn during the past several hours, and the initial motion is a somewhat uncertain 045/2. Water vapor imagery shows a large mid to upper-level trough over the Gulf of Mexico and eastern Mexico, and this may be the cause of the current motion. The large-scale models forecast a ridge to build over Mexico over the weekend, which should then cause Carlos to move west-northwestward nearly parallel to the coast of Mexico. Early next week, a mid to upper-level trough over the southwestern United States is forecast to move into northwestern Mexico, which could cause Carlos to turn northwestward toward the Gulf of California or the Baja California Peninsula by Tuesday. The new forecast track is similar to but adjusted somewhat north of the previous one, and it brings the center of Carlos a little closer to the coast of mainland Mexico. It should be noted that any motion to the right of the forecast track could bring the center onshore in mainland Mexico as forecast by the latest GFS run. The large-scale models suggest the current shear should abate after 12-24 hours, which in theory should allow Carlos to strengthen. However, most of the intensity guidance forecasts only slow strengthening during the next 72 hours, which may be due to a combination of drier air aloft and possible land interaction. After 72 hours, cooler waters and a more stable atmosphere are expected to cause Carlos to weaken. The new intensity forecast is unchanged from the previous one, and it remains at the upper end of the intensity guidance. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 13/0300Z 14.8N 100.1W 50 KT 60 MPH 12H 13/1200Z 15.0N 100.2W 55 KT 65 MPH 24H 14/0000Z 15.4N 100.8W 55 KT 65 MPH 36H 14/1200Z 15.8N 101.6W 60 KT 70 MPH 48H 15/0000Z 16.3N 102.6W 65 KT 75 MPH 72H 16/0000Z 17.5N 104.5W 70 KT 80 MPH 96H 17/0000Z 19.5N 106.0W 60 KT 70 MPH 120H 18/0000Z 22.0N 107.5W 45 KT 50 MPH $$ Forecaster Beven

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