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Tropical Depression Claudette Forecast Discussion Number 11
2021-06-20 10:48:28| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 400 AM CDT Sun Jun 20 2021 000 WTNT43 KNHC 200848 TCDAT3 Tropical Depression Claudette Discussion Number 11 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL032021 400 AM CDT Sun Jun 20 2021 The area of deep convection near the center of Claudette has weakened over the past several hours, though rain bands have become more distinct in the southeastern quadrant. Surface observations continue to indicate that the maximum winds are about 25 kt, and these winds are almost all over the Gulf of Mexico well to the south of the center. Claudette is moving east-northeastward at about 11 kt. The system should gradually accelelerate in that direction through tonight as it moves ahead of a digging trough over the central United States, and all of the models show the system near the North Carolina coast by midday Monday. Claudette should then move even faster to the northeast through Tuesday ahead of the aforementioned trough due to stronger steering flow. Guidance remains in very good agreement through that time, and little change was made to the previous forecast. The end of the forecast remains uncertain as some of the guidance is showing more of a turn to the left closer to Nova Scotia. However, a stronger system would argue for something that remains more separate from the large mid-latitude trough steering the system, so the new forecast is close to the previous one, on the south side of the guidance. Conditions appear to be conducive for the re-development of Claudette once it encounters a more unstable marine environment late today. The system should move close to the Gulf Stream by Monday afternoon, likely fueling intensification while the shear is low. The previously divergent model suite is in better agreement now, with the GFS, UKMET and ECMWF models all showing the system becoming a tropical storm again near the North Carolina Outer Banks with some strengthening over the western Atlantic Ocean. Extratropical transiton should be quick after it moves north of the Gulf Stream, assisted by strong shear in 48 to 60 hours. The new intensity forecast is a little higher than the previous one, close to the NOAA Corrected Consensus Guidance. Key Messages: 1. Claudette is expected to produce heavy rainfall and flash flooding across portions of the Florida Panhandle, northern Alabama, and Georgia through this morning, and into the Carolinas through Monday morning. Considerable flash, urban, and small stream flooding impacts are possible across these areas. 2. Tropical storm conditions are expected along portions of the North Carolina coast late tonight and Monday, where a Tropical Storm Warning is in effect. Tropical storm conditions are possible in northeastern South Carolina tonight and Monday, where a Tropical Storm Watch is in effect. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 20/0900Z 33.3N 85.8W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND 12H 20/1800Z 33.8N 83.2W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND 24H 21/0600Z 34.7N 79.1W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND 36H 21/1800Z 36.5N 74.5W 40 KT 45 MPH...OVER WATER 48H 22/0600Z 39.3N 69.5W 45 KT 50 MPH 60H 22/1800Z 42.7N 63.8W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 72H 23/0600Z 46.5N 58.0W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 96H 24/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Blake
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Remnants of Dolores Forecast Discussion Number 9
2021-06-20 10:34:59| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 400 AM CDT Sun Jun 20 2021 000 WTPZ44 KNHC 200834 TCDEP4 Remnants Of Dolores Discussion Number 9 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP042021 400 AM CDT Sun Jun 20 2021 Satellite imagery and limited surface observations indicate that Dolores has dissipated over the mountainous terrain of central Mexico. Although a mid-level circulation is evident in satellite imagery, this structure no longer extends down to the surface. Therefore, this will be the last NHC advisory on this system. Although the system has dissipated, the remnants of Dolores remain capable of producing heavy rainfall over portions of southwestern and west-central Mexico today, which could produce life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides. For more information, see products issued by your national meteorological service. Key Messages: 1. Heavy rains are forecast over coastal sections of the Mexican states of Guerrero, Michoacan, Colima, Jalisco, Nayarit, and southern Sinaloa through today, which could result in life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 20/0900Z 23.5N 103.7W 20 KT 25 MPH 12H 20/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Reinhart/Blake
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Tropical Depression Dolores Forecast Discussion Number 8
2021-06-20 04:40:05| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1000 PM CDT Sat Jun 19 2021 000 WTPZ44 KNHC 200239 TCDEP4 Tropical Depression Dolores Discussion Number 8 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP042021 1000 PM CDT Sat Jun 19 2021 Satellite imagery and surface observations indicate that Tropical Depression Dolores continues to rapidly weaken. It is getting very difficult to locate a low-level center at this time, if one still exists over the mountainous terrain. Given the length of time already spent over this terrain, the estimated initial intensity is being lowered to 25 kt for this advisory. Dolores is moving north at 18 kt between a ridge to its east and a mid-level low to its west. This motion is expected to continue through tonight, keeping Dolores well inland over western Mexico. This track over the rugged terrain should cause Dolores to finally dissipate late tonight or on Sunday morning. Although Dolores may dissipate soon, the abundant moisture associated with the system is expected to continue to produce heavy rainfall over portions of southwestern and west-central Mexico for the remainder of the weekend. Key Messages: 1. Wind gusts to near tropical storm force will likely continue over coastal sections of west-central Mexico to the south of Puerto Vallarta through early tonight. 2. Heavy rains are forecast over coastal sections of the Mexican states of Guerrero, Michoacan, Colima, Jalisco, Nayarit, and southern Sinaloa through Sunday, which could result in life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 20/0300Z 22.3N 104.3W 25 KT 30 MPH 12H 20/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Latto
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Tropical Depression Claudette Forecast Discussion Number 10
2021-06-20 04:40:05| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1000 PM CDT Sat Jun 19 2021 000 WTNT43 KNHC 200239 TCDAT3 Tropical Depression Claudette Discussion Number 10 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL032021 1000 PM CDT Sat Jun 19 2021 Although the center is well inland, Claudette has become better organized during the past several hours, with a large area of convection forming close to the center in the northern quadrant. In addition to this convection, a large area of rain bands is present over the eastern semicircle from the northeastern Gulf of Mexico northward into southeastern Tennessee Surface observation indicate that the maximum winds have decreased a little more and are now 25 kt, with these winds mainly over the Gulf of Mexico to the south of the center. Surface observations also indicate that the central pressure is 1005-1006 mb. The initial motion is still northeastward, but is a little slower than before, 050/12 kt. A turn to the east-northeast is expected during the next 6-12 h as Claudette moves in the westerlies on the north side of the subtropical ridge. This motion should take the system across portions of the southeast U.S. during the next 36 h or so and then over the western Atlantic and toward Atlantic Canada with a significant increase in forward speed between 36- 72 h. The track forecast guidance remains tightly clustered and has changed little since the last advisory. So, the new forecast track is basically an update of the previous forecast, and it calls for the system to be near the coast of North Carolina at about the 36 h point. The intensity guidance continues to show a sizable amount of spread. On one side, the GFS has an ill-defined system reaching the Carolina coast in 36 h, with only minimal subsequent intensification after Claudette moves into the Atlantic. On the other side, the UKMET shows the central pressure falling below 1000 mb before the system reaches the Atlantic and winds exceeding 50 kt once the system is over water. The ECMWF and Canadian models lie between these extremes. The model forecasts do not show any strong baroclinic forcing that would lead to the level of intensification shown by the UKMET. On the other hand, the short-term trends in the cyclone's organization currently favor the stronger model forecasts. Given the uncertainty, the intensity forecast is not changed much from the previous forecast, except for moving the time of dissipation up by 24 h as Claudette gets absorbed into a large extratropical low over eastern Canada. If the current trends continue, or later GFS runs forecast a stronger system, the intensity forecast could be adjusted upward in later advisories. It should be noted that even the weaker GFS solution brings 30-35 kt winds to the North Carolina coast near the 36 h point, and a tropical storm warning will likely be required for a portion of the current watch area on the next advisory. Key Messages: 1. Claudette is expected to produce heavy rainfall and flash flooding across portions of the Florida Panhandle, northern Alabama, and Georgia through tonight, and into the Carolinas on Sunday. Considerable flash, urban, and small stream flooding impacts are possible across these areas. 2. Tropical storm conditions are possible along portions of the North Carolina coast Sunday night and Monday, where a Tropical Storm Watch is in effect. Tropical Storm Warnings will likely be required for portions of this area early Sunday. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 20/0300Z 32.6N 87.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND 12H 20/1200Z 33.3N 84.7W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND 24H 21/0000Z 34.2N 81.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND 36H 21/1200Z 35.4N 76.6W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND 48H 22/0000Z 37.7N 71.9W 40 KT 45 MPH...OVER WATER 60H 22/1200Z 40.8N 66.7W 40 KT 45 MPH 72H 23/0000Z 44.5N 60.8W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 96H 24/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Beven
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Tropical Storm Dolores Forecast Discussion Number 7
2021-06-19 22:38:19| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 400 PM CDT Sat Jun 19 2021 000 WTPZ44 KNHC 192038 TCDEP4 Tropical Storm Dolores Discussion Number 7 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP042021 400 PM CDT Sat Jun 19 2021 Dolores's circulation, and the associated weather, continue to move farther inland over west-central Mexico, but it's hard to tell how much of a surface circulation remains over the mountainous topography of the region. Deep convection continues to develop near the estimated center, likely with the help of some orographic lift of onshore flow. Based on a typical decay rate over land, Dolores's intensity is set at 45 kt, but there is higher-than-normal uncertainty in this estimate given the effects of the terrain. The heading remains toward the north-northwest (345 degrees), but the speed has increased to 15 kt, likely due to the mid-level circulation rotating around a mid-level low centered near Socorro Island. If the surface circulation has not yet been mangled by the mountainous terrain, it will soon, and the mid-level circulation should then continue north-northwestward through tonight. The new NHC forecast shows continued rapid weakening and depicts Dolores as a remnant low in 12 hours, but in reality the circulation may have dissipated by that time. This forecast reasoning follows the quick dissipation of vorticity indicated in the global model fields. Even though Dolores is moving farther inland, the coastal watches and warnings are being maintained on this advisory until there is no longer a threat of tropical-storm-force winds in those areas. Key Messages: 1. Tropical storm conditions are still occurring within the tropical storm warning area and will spread farther inland across west-central Mexico through tonight. 2. Heavy rains are forecast over coastal sections of the Mexican states of Guerrero, Michoacan, Colima, Jalisco, Nayarit, and southern Sinaloa through the weekend, which could result in life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 19/2100Z 20.3N 104.1W 45 KT 50 MPH...INLAND 12H 20/0600Z 22.5N 104.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND 24H 20/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Berg
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