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Tropical Storm Claudette Forecast Discussion Number 8
2021-06-19 16:39:46| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1000 AM CDT Sat Jun 19 2021 000 WTNT43 KNHC 191439 TCDAT3 Tropical Storm Claudette Discussion Number 8 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL032021 1000 AM CDT Sat Jun 19 2021 Claudette continues to move inland, with the center now located over southern Mississippi. Most of the showers and thunderstorms are still located on the storm's east side and extend across portions of Mississippi, Alabama, and the Florida Panhandle. Based on surface observations, the initial intensity is estimated to be 35 kt, and those winds are occurring along the coast within the warning area and over the northern Gulf of Mexico waters. The tropical storm is moving north-northeastward at 12 kt. A turn to the northeast is expected to occur soon, followed by an east-northeastward motion tonight and Sunday as Claudette moves in the westerlies on the north side of the subtropical ridge. This motion should take the system across portions of the southeast U.S. during the next couple of days and then over the western Atlantic and toward Atlantic Canada early next week. The models are in relatively good agreement, and the NHC track forecast lies near the middle of the guidance envelope. This forecast is very similar to the previous one, except a little to the right at the longer range forecast times. In the short term, land interaction should cause weakening and Claudette will likely become a tropical depression later today. In 36 to 48 hours, however, the global models, except for the GFS, show Claudette restrengthening when it nears and moves offshore of the Carolinas Sunday night and Monday. This predicted strengthening is likely due in part to baroclinic processes. The ECMWF model is the most aggressive during that portion of the forecast showing Claudette having peak winds of 45-50 kt along the coast when the center is located over eastern North Carolina. Once the system moves north of the Gulf Stream Current in a few days, it is forecast to transition to an extratropical cyclone prior to reaching Atlantic Canada. The NHC intensity forecast is a little higher than the previous one, and in line with the HCCA and IVCN consensus aids. Key Messages: 1. Claudette is expected to produce heavy rainfall and life-threatening flash flooding across coastal Mississippi and Alabama, and the western Florida Panhandle through the afternoon. Considerable flash, urban and small stream flooding, will continue through the weekend across these areas, with flood impacts spreading northeastward into interior portions of the Southeast. 2. Tropical storm conditions are still occurring along portions of the Gulf Coast from the Mouth of the Mississippi River to the Okaloosa/Walton County line, Florida. These winds will continue for a few more hours. 3. Tropical storm conditions are possible along portions of the North Carolina coast Sunday night and Monday, and a Tropical Storm Watch has been issued for that area. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 19/1500Z 31.0N 89.7W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND 12H 20/0000Z 32.0N 88.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND 24H 20/1200Z 32.9N 85.3W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND 36H 21/0000Z 33.7N 81.7W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND 48H 21/1200Z 35.0N 77.6W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND 60H 22/0000Z 37.5N 72.7W 40 KT 45 MPH...OVER WATER 72H 22/1200Z 40.4N 67.7W 40 KT 45 MPH 96H 23/1200Z 49.5N 57.1W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 120H 24/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Cangialosi
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Tropical Storm Dolores Forecast Discussion Number 6
2021-06-19 16:37:13| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1000 AM CDT Sat Jun 19 2021 125 WTPZ44 KNHC 191437 TCDEP4 Tropical Storm Dolores Discussion Number 6 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP042021 1000 AM CDT Sat Jun 19 2021 Satellite imagery indicates that Dolores's center is moving onshore near the Michoacan/Colima border a little to the northwest of Punta San Telmo, Mexico. Within its last few hours over water, Dolores's satellite presentation continued to improve, and an SSMIS microwave pass from 1155 UTC showed that the storm has a large, well-defined mid-level eye surrounded by a nearly closed eyewall. Dolores appears to be very close to hurricane strength, and its current intensity is set at 60 kt as a compromise between estimates of T3.5 and T4.5 from TAFB and SAB, respectively. Dolores has been accelerating while approaching the coast, and its current motion is estimated to be toward the north-northwest (335 degrees) at 11 kt. With the center forecast to move farther inland through the day, the mountainous terrain of west-central Mexico is expected to disrupt the surface circulation, and the model guidance generally shows the low-level vorticity dissipating in about 12 hours, or less. To maintain continuity with previous forecasts, the NHC official forecast maintains a track for 24 hours, showing Dolores weakening fast and degenerating to a remnant low over west-central Mexico by this time tomorrow. However, it is entirely possible that the surface circulation will have dissipated by Sunday morning, with the associated rains continuing to spread northward with the remnant mid-level circulation. Even though Dolores is making landfall, the hurricane watch for the coast of Mexico is being maintained on this advisory since gusts to hurricane force could be occurring to the east of where the center is moving onshore. Key Messages: 1. Even though Dolores had made landfall, tropical storm conditions are still occurring within the tropical storm warning area and will spread farther inland across west-central Mexico through the day and tonight. Hurricane conditions, especially in gusts, are still possible for a few more hours within the hurricane watch area. 2. Heavy rains are forecast over coastal sections of the Mexican states of Oaxaca, Guerrero, Michoacan, Colima, Jalisco, Nayarit, and southern Sinaloa through the weekend, which could result in life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 19/1500Z 18.6N 103.7W 60 KT 70 MPH...ON THE COAST 12H 20/0000Z 20.4N 104.2W 40 KT 45 MPH...INLAND 24H 20/1200Z 21.8N 104.6W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND 36H 21/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Berg
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Tropical Storm Claudette Forecast Discussion Number 7
2021-06-19 10:59:10| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 400 AM CDT Sat Jun 19 2021 000 WTNT43 KNHC 190859 TCDAT3 Tropical Storm Claudette Discussion Number 7 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL032021 400 AM CDT Sat Jun 19 2021 The system that we have been tracking for a few days finally has enough of a well-defined center and organized convection to be considered a tropical storm. While the organization is not classical by any means, and there are some hybrid characteristics, the cyclone most resembles a sheared tropical storm, so the system is now Tropical Storm Claudette. The initial wind speed remains 40 kt, in line with surface observations and radar. These winds are primarily occurring in a strong band on the eastern side of the cyclone well away from the center. Claudette is moving north-northeastward at about 10 kt. The storm should turn northeastward and east-northeastward over the next day or so while it moves around the northern side of the subtropical ridge and gradually weakens to a depression/post-tropical cyclone. The biggest change to the forecast is that almost all of the reliable global models, save the GFS, are showing the system regenerating near or offshore of the North Carolina coast in 60 to 72 hours. Thus the forecast has been extended from the last one and now shows the system as a tropical cyclone over the western Atlantic Ocean. The new intensity forecast is more conservative than most of the guidance, but is higher than the previous advisory. Extratropical transition is expected by 96 hours near Nova Scotia. Given the current and anticipated structure of this system, users should not focus on the exact track of the center, as rainfall and wind hazards are likely to extend well east of the center. Impacts along the northern Gulf coast will continue. Key Messages: 1. Claudette is expected to produce heavy rainfall and life-threatening flash flooding across coastal Mississippi and Alabama, and the far western Florida Panhandle through the afternoon. Considerable flash, urban, and small stream flooding, will continue through the weekend along the central Gulf Coast, with flood impacts spreading northeastward into interior portions of the Southeast. 2. Tropical storm conditions are occurring along portions of the central Gulf Coast from east of Morgan City, Louisiana, to the Okaloosa/Walton County line, Florida, including New Orleans. These winds will spread inland and continue through this afternoon. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 19/0900Z 29.6N 90.7W 40 KT 45 MPH...INLAND 12H 19/1800Z 30.9N 89.7W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND 24H 20/0600Z 32.2N 87.6W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND 36H 20/1800Z 33.3N 84.2W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND 48H 21/0600Z 34.2N 80.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND 60H 21/1800Z 35.8N 76.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND 72H 22/0600Z 38.5N 71.0W 35 KT 40 MPH...TROPICAL CYCLONE 96H 23/0600Z 47.0N 61.0W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 120H 24/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Blake
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Tropical Storm Dolores Forecast Discussion Number 5
2021-06-19 10:52:39| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 400 AM CDT Sat Jun 19 2021 000 WTPZ44 KNHC 190852 TCDEP4 Tropical Storm Dolores Discussion Number 5 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP042021 400 AM CDT Sat Jun 19 2021 Dolores appears to be in another bursting pattern coincident with the diurnal max this morning, as deep convection and cold cloud tops have increased in coverage and intensity near the estimated low-level center. A distinct curved band has also formed along the storm's southern semicircle. The latest Dvorak subjective intensity estimates were both T3.5/55 kt from TAFB and SAB, though the most recent CIMSS-ADT intensity estimate was only T3.0/45 kt. Unfortunately there has not been no recent microwave or scatterometer data available to better assess the inner core structure of the cyclone. Blending the subjective and objective intensity estimates, the maximum sustained winds was raised to 50 kt for this advisory, though this value may be conservative. Dolores appears to be making a slow right turn as the storm gradually accelerates while it rounds the western side of a mid-level ridge, currently moving at 330/9 kt. A gradual acceleration toward the north-northwest is anticipated until landfall with this motion continuing until the storm dissipates over the high terrain of western Mexico. The latest track forecast is a bit to the east of the previous forecast cycle but remains in close agreement with the multi-model consensus. On this track, Dolores is expected to reach the Mexican coastline in the next 12 h and push far inland thereafter. Given the eastward adjustment in the forecast track, the government of Mexico has extended the hurricane watch further to the southeast for this advisory. Environmental conditions are expected to remain favorable for additional intensification right up until landfall along the Mexican coast, close to Punta San Telmo, in about 12 h. The current forecast intensity for 60 kt in 12 hours is a bit higher than the guidance consensus, as few models already have the storm inland at that time. Rapid weakening is forecast as Dolores moves inland over western Mexico thereafter and the storm will likely dissipate by 36 h, if not sooner. Key Messages: 1. Dolores is expected to continue strengthening today up until landfall, and it could be near hurricane strength when it reaches the coast of west-central Mexico by this afternoon. A tropical storm warning and a hurricane watch are in effect for portions of the southwestern and west-central coasts of Mexico. 2. Heavy rains are forecast over coastal sections of the Mexican states of Oaxaca, Guerrero, Michoacan, Colima, Jalisco, and Nayarit during the next few days, which could result in life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 19/0900Z 17.0N 103.1W 50 KT 60 MPH 12H 19/1800Z 18.6N 103.6W 60 KT 70 MPH...NEAR THE COAST 24H 20/0600Z 21.4N 104.4W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND 36H 20/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Papin/Blake
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Potential Tropical Cyclone Three Forecast Discussion Number 6
2021-06-19 04:44:32| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1000 PM CDT Fri Jun 18 2021 000 WTNT43 KNHC 190244 TCDAT3 Potential Tropical Cyclone Three Discussion Number 6 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL032021 1000 PM CDT Fri Jun 18 2021 Satellite imagery indicates that the circulation associated with the broad low pressure area over the northern Gulf of Mexico is slowly getting better defined, and several swirls of low-level clouds/vorticity centers were apparent in visible imagery just before dark. However, surface data and reports from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft show that the surface wind field is more like a trough elongated NNE-SSW from southeastern Louisiana into the Gulf. In addition, the convection associated with the system is mostly well to the northeast of the swirls. Based on this, the low will remain as a potential tropical cyclone, as it has not yet put all of the pieces together to be called a tropical or subtropical cyclone. There is again little change to the track forecast reasoning. The initial motion is a little slower than before at 010/11. This general motion should continue until the system reaches the northern Gulf coast in the next 6 h or so. After the system moves inland, a turn to the northeast and then east-northeast across the southeast U.S. is predicted when the cyclone becomes embedded in the westerlies on the north side of the subtropical ridge. The new forecast is a little faster and a little south of the previous forecast after 36 h based on the latest guidance, but other than that there are no significant changes. Time is running out for the system to develop further before landfall. However, it should be noted that in this case landfall will not instantly put an end to the chances of tropical or subtropical cyclone development, as much of the associated strong winds and convection will remain over water for at least 12 h. After that time, the system should be far enough inland to cause weakening to start. One note is that all of the global models except the GFS now forecast the low to survive for more than 72 h. The new intensity forecast will not change the dissipation time for now. However, if the 00Z global models continue this trend, subsequent advisories may need to show a longer life for the system. Given the current and anticipated structure of this system, users should not focus on the exact track of the center, as rainfall and wind hazards are likely to extend well east of the center. Impacts along the northern Gulf coast will continue regardless of whether there is any additional development. Key Messages: 1. The system is expected to produce heavy rainfall and considerable flash, urban and small stream flooding, continuing through the weekend along the central Gulf Coast, with flood impacts spreading northeastward into the southern Appalachians and portions of the Southeast. 2. Tropical storm conditions are occurring along portions of the central Gulf Coast from east of Morgan City, Louisiana, to the Okaloosa/Walton County line, Florida, including New Orleans. These winds will spread inland and continue into Saturday. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 19/0300Z 28.9N 90.9W 40 KT 45 MPH...POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE 12H 19/1200Z 30.4N 90.3W 40 KT 45 MPH...INLAND 24H 20/0000Z 31.9N 88.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND 36H 20/1200Z 33.2N 85.9W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND 48H 21/0000Z 34.1N 82.8W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND 60H 21/1200Z 35.5N 79.3W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 22/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Beven
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