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Tropical Storm Claudette Forecast Discussion Number 16

2021-06-21 16:49:55| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 1100 AM EDT Mon Jun 21 2021 000 WTNT43 KNHC 211449 TCDAT3 Tropical Storm Claudette Discussion Number 16 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL032021 1100 AM EDT Mon Jun 21 2021 Claudette's low-level center is estimated to be back over water. However, it is difficult to locate in surface observation data due to the broad inner-core wind field and elongated pressure envelope near the NC/VA coasts in which the cyclone is embedded. For now, the surface center has been placed close to the low- to mid-level circulation center noted in KAKQ and KMHX Doppler radar data. The initial intensity is being maintained at 35 kt based on a 1200 UTC 32-kt wind report from ship 3EVZ8 located about 130 nmi southeast of the center. Claudette continues to accelerate east-northeastward and the motion is now 060/24 kt. The track forecast and discussion remain pretty straightforward. Claudette is now caught up in the deep-layer west-southwesterly flow on the north side of a broad subtropical ridge and ahead of a mid-latitude trough currently moving into the eastern and southeastern United States. The cyclone or its remnants will gradually lift out toward the northeast ahead of the approaching mid-latitude trough by tonight, with that motion continuing through Tuesday. The new NHC track forecast is similar to the previous advisory track, and lies close to a blend of consensus track models TVCA, GFEX, and HCCA. As Claudette continues to accelerate, its increased forward speed could result in the low-level wind field opening up into a trough, which would result in the cessation of the system as a tropical cyclone. For now, however, the assumption is that the cyclone could strengthen a little more, which would allow for the surface wind field to remain closed today and into Tuesday until the system weakens over the cold North Atlantic waters north of the Gulf Stream, which is located along roughly 38N latitude. As a result, Claudette is forecast to become a post-tropical remnant low in about 24 h, follows by dissipation in about 48 h. The official NHC intensity forecast remains very similar to the previous one, and the track closely follows the intensity consensus models HCCA and IVCN. Key Message: 1. Heavy rain from Claudette will continue to diminish this morning across far southeast Virginia and the Outer Banks of North Carolina. Isolated flash, urban, and small stream flooding impacts are possible. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 21/1500Z 37.0N 75.0W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 22/0000Z 38.7N 71.1W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 22/1200Z 41.8N 65.4W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 36H 23/0000Z 44.8N 59.9W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 48H 23/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Stewart

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Tropical Storm Claudette Forecast Discussion Number 15

2021-06-21 10:42:00| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 500 AM EDT Mon Jun 21 2021 000 WTNT43 KNHC 210841 TCDAT3 Tropical Storm Claudette Discussion Number 15 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL032021 500 AM EDT Mon Jun 21 2021 The elongated low-level center of Claudette is located over eastern North Carolina this morning, while a curved band of convection continues pushing eastward across the adjacent coastal and offshore waters. Surface pressures have fallen slightly overnight near the estimated center position, and Frying Pan Shoals buoy 41013 off the coast of southeastern North Carolina reported a brief period of sustained tropical-storm-force winds shortly after 06 UTC. Therefore, Claudette's initial intensity is raised to 35 kt with this advisory, making it a tropical storm once again. Claudette continues to accelerate east-northeastward as it is steered by a mid- to upper-level trough that is approaching the eastern United States. The storm will move off the North Carolina coast within the next few hours, and a bit more strengthening is possible today as it passes near the north wall of the Gulf Stream. The official NHC forecast hangs onto Claudette as a tropical cyclone through tonight, then quickly transitions it to a post-tropical cyclone by 36 h. The time of dissipation is also moved up a day earlier with this advisory, which is consistent with the latest global model fields that show an open trough approaching Atlantic Canada. Otherwise, the official NHC forecast remains very similar to the previous one, and the track closely follows the multi-model consensus. Some of the global guidance suggests that Claudette could lose its closed low-level circulation and open up into a trough soon after emerging into the western Atlantic Ocean later today. Given the current poor center definition, it is a plausible alternative scenario that Claudette dissipates faster than shown below. Key Messages: 1. Heavy rain from Claudette will continue over the North Carolina coast this morning. Isolated flash, urban, and small stream flooding impacts are possible. 2. Tropical storm conditions are expected along portions of the North Carolina coast through this morning, where a Tropical Storm Warning is in effect. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 21/0900Z 35.6N 77.6W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND 12H 21/1800Z 37.0N 74.1W 40 KT 45 MPH...OVER WATER 24H 22/0600Z 39.5N 68.6W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 22/1800Z 42.8N 63.3W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 48H 23/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Reinhart/Blake

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Tropical Depression Claudette Forecast Discussion Number 14

2021-06-21 04:38:11| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 1100 PM EDT Sun Jun 20 2021 000 WTNT43 KNHC 210238 TCDAT3 Tropical Depression Claudette Discussion Number 14 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL032021 1100 PM EDT Sun Jun 20 2021 Deep convection is increasing in curved bands to the east and northeast of the center, however the center of circulation itself is not very well defined. Coastal surface observations indicate that the highest winds have increased to near 30 kt. Some additional restrengthening is anticipated, and Claudette is expected to regain tropical storm strength prior to moving into the Atlantic on Monday. A little more intensification could occur while the system moves near the northern edge of the Gulf Stream during the next day or so, as reflected in the official forecast. Within 48 hours, as the cyclone moves near Atlantic Canada, the global models suggest that the system will lose tropical characteristics, or even open up into a trough. Claudette's forward speed is gradually increasing and the current motion is estimated to be near 070/17 kt. On the projected track, the system should move into the western Atlantic tomorrow. The flow ahead of a broad 500 mb trough approaching the eastern United States should cause the cyclone to accelerate east- northeastward to northeastward during the next 48 hours. The official forecast is very similar to the previous one, and close to the model consensus TVCN. No changes to the warning and watch along the southeastern United States coasts are required at this time. Key Messages: 1. Claudette is expected to produce heavy rainfall and flash flooding from southeastern Georgia into the Carolinas through Monday morning. Flash, urban, and small stream flooding impacts are possible across these areas. 2. A couple of tornadoes are possible through early Monday across parts of the coastal Carolinas. 3. Tropical storm conditions are expected along portions of the North Carolina coast by early Monday, where a Tropical Storm Warning is in effect. Tropical storm conditions are possible in northeastern South Carolina tonight and Monday, where a Tropical Storm Watch is in effect. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 21/0300Z 34.7N 80.4W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 21/1200Z 35.9N 76.7W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND 24H 22/0000Z 38.1N 71.7W 40 KT 45 MPH...OVER WATER 36H 22/1200Z 41.0N 66.0W 40 KT 45 MPH 48H 23/0000Z 44.5N 61.0W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 60H 23/1200Z 47.5N 56.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 72H 24/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Pasch

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Tropical Depression Claudette Forecast Discussion Number 13

2021-06-20 22:32:10| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 500 PM EDT Sun Jun 20 2021 000 WTNT43 KNHC 202032 TCDAT3 Tropical Depression Claudette Discussion Number 13 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL032021 500 PM EDT Sun Jun 20 2021 Satellite and surface observations show that Claudette's circulation has become elongated today and that there is a fairly large area of light winds near the center. Observations along the southeastern U.S. coast and over coastal sections of the Carolinas indicate that the winds have increased somewhat but these data still support an initial intensity of 25 kt. As Claudette approaches the coast overnight and Monday morning, restrengthening is anticipated, and the cyclone is forecast to regain tropical storm status before it exits the coast of North Carolina. Some additional strengthening is forecast while Claudette moves over the warm waters of the Gulf Stream and the shear remains low. The system should become extratropical Tuesday afternoon when it passes near Nova Scotia, and the global models indicate that it will degenerate into a trough of low pressure by Wednesday morning. The NHC intensity foreast is close to the intensity model consensus and follows the trends of the various global models. The depression is moving east-northeastward at around 15 kt. A mid-latitude trough that is moving into the central United States should continue to steer Claudette east-northeastward to northeastward over the next couple of days. The center of Claudette is forecast to move offshore of the coast of North Carolina Monday morning, then pass well offshore of the Mid-Atlantic coast Monday night, and be near or just southeast of Nova Scotia on Tuesday. The dynamical model guidance remains in very good agreement and the NHC forecast again lies near the various consensus aids. Key Messages: 1. Claudette is expected to produce heavy rainfall and flash flooding from North Florida and southeastern Georgia into the Carolinas through Monday morning. Flash, urban, and small stream flooding impacts are possible across these areas. 2. Isolated tornadoes are possible this evening across parts of the central and eastern Carolinas. 3. Tropical storm conditions are expected along portions of the North Carolina coast late tonight and Monday, where a Tropical Storm Warning is in effect. Tropical storm conditions are possible in northeastern South Carolina tonight and Monday, where a Tropical Storm Watch is in effect. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 20/2100Z 34.2N 82.5W 25 KT 30 MPH 12H 21/0600Z 35.0N 79.1W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND 24H 21/1800Z 36.9N 74.3W 40 KT 45 MPH...OVER WATER 36H 22/0600Z 39.3N 69.0W 40 KT 45 MPH 48H 22/1800Z 42.4N 63.4W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 60H 23/0600Z 45.5N 58.4W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 72H 23/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Brown

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Tropical Depression Claudette Forecast Discussion Number 12

2021-06-20 16:43:03| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 1100 AM EDT Sun Jun 20 2021 467 WTNT43 KNHC 201442 TCDAT3 Tropical Depression Claudette Discussion Number 12 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL032021 1100 AM EDT Sun Jun 20 2021 Surface observations and visible satellite imagery show that the center of Claudette is moving across central Georgia this morning. Although the deep convection near the center has waned overnight, loose convective bands are evident over portions of North and South Carolina, and to the southeast of the center across southeastern Georgia and northern Florida. There have been a few wind reports of 20-23 kt along the coast of Georgia and South Carolina within the past couple of hours, with the higher reports occurring at some elevated towers. The initial wind speed is maintained at 25 kt, but the strongest winds are well removed from the center and occurring mainly over water. Claudette is beginning to accelerate east-northeastward with an initial motion estimate of 070/15 kt. There has been no change to the track forecast reasoning. Claudette should continue to accelerate east-northeastward ahead of a mid-tropospheric trough moving into the central United States. The center of the cyclone should be near the coast of North Carolina Monday morning, and then pass well offshore the Mid-Atlantic coast Monday afternoon and Monday night. The track guidance remains in very good agreement and the updated NHC forecast is very close to the previous official foreast. As the large circulation of Claudette moves off of the southeastern United States coast later today and tonight, winds will increase along and offshore of the coast, and the system is expected to regain tropical-storm status by Monday morning. Additional re-strengthening is foreast on Monday and Monday night while the cyclone moves over the warmer waters of the Gulf Stream. After that time, the system is expected to quickly transition to an extratropical cyclone, and the global models show the post-tropical cyclone opening up into a trough of low pressure by Wednesday morning. The NHC intensity forecast is a blend of the various intensity aids and the modest deepening indicated by the global models. Key Messages: 1. Claudette is expected to produce heavy rainfall and flash flooding across eastern portions of the Florida Panhandle, North Florida, and southern Georgia today, and into the Carolinas through Monday morning. Flash, urban, and small stream flooding impacts are possible across these areas. 2. A few tornadoes are possible today across parts of Georgia and the Carolinas. 3. Tropical storm conditions are expected along portions of the North Carolina coast late tonight and Monday, where a Tropical Storm Warning is in effect. Tropical storm conditions are possible in northeastern South Carolina tonight and Monday, where a Tropical Storm Watch is in effect. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 20/1500Z 33.8N 84.2W 25 KT 30 MPH 12H 21/0000Z 34.4N 81.2W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND 24H 21/1200Z 35.8N 76.7W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND 36H 22/0000Z 38.0N 71.7W 40 KT 45 MPH...OVER WATER 48H 22/1200Z 41.1N 66.4W 45 KT 50 MPH 60H 23/0000Z 44.3N 61.0W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 72H 23/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Brown

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