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Tropical Depression FOUR-E Forecast Discussion Number 5

2014-06-29 22:40:54| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 200 PM PDT SUN JUN 29 2014 000 WTPZ44 KNHC 292040 TCDEP4 TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOUR-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 5 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP042014 200 PM PDT SUN JUN 29 2014 Satellite images suggest that the depression's cloud pattern has not become better organized since this morning. Deep convection near the center has decreased, while convection remains concentrated in a long band over the western semicircle of the circulation. A partial ASCAT overpass at 1722 UTC continues to indicate a large and sprawling cyclonic envelope associated with the depression, with the strongest winds well removed from the center of circulation. Dvorak intensity estimates are a 2.5 and 2.0 from TAFB and SAB, respectively, at 1800 UTC. Given the lack of change in the system's organization, the initial intensity estimate is maintained at 30 kt for this advisory. The center is still not obvious, even in visible satellite imagery, and thus the initial motion estimate, or 295/14, is as uncertain as it was previously. The cyclone should continue to move at a fast clip on the south side of a strong subtropical ridge. This ridge is forecast to weaken and shift westward during the next couple of days when a mid- to upper-level shortwave trough moves into the California coast. This should cause a notable reduction in the forward speed of the cyclone during this time, with the track becoming more westerly after that once the storm becomes more shallow in nature. The NHC track forecast remains on the left side of the guidance envelope, slightly to the left of and slower than the previous one through 36 hours. The forecast track is adjusted to the right and is slower beyond 36 hours but is not as far right as the ECMWF, GFS, and multi-model consensus TVCE. Low shear and warm waters along the depression's track should favor intensification for another day or possibly two, but the large size and slow evolution of inner core suggests that any strengthening will only be gradual. Cooler waters and a drier and more stable atmosphere should bring any intensification to a halt in about two days, with slow but steady weakening after that time in the absence of any significant shear. The thermodynamics should become increasingly unfavorable late in the forecast period, and remnant low status is now forecast on day 5. The NHC intensity forecast is a bit lower than the previous one and close to the multi-model consensus IVCN through 72 hours but a bit lower after that time. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 29/2100Z 16.5N 111.9W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 30/0600Z 17.0N 113.6W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 30/1800Z 17.6N 115.0W 45 KT 50 MPH 36H 01/0600Z 18.3N 116.1W 50 KT 60 MPH 48H 01/1800Z 18.7N 116.9W 50 KT 60 MPH 72H 02/1800Z 18.8N 117.7W 40 KT 45 MPH 96H 03/1800Z 18.9N 118.7W 30 KT 35 MPH 120H 04/1800Z 18.8N 120.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Kimberlain

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Tropical Depression FOUR-E Forecast Discussion Number 4

2014-06-29 16:50:56| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 800 AM PDT SUN JUN 29 2014 000 WTPZ44 KNHC 291450 TCDEP4 TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOUR-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 4 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP042014 800 AM PDT SUN JUN 29 2014 Satellite pictures show that the cloud pattern of the cyclone has gradually been increasing in organization this morning. A large band consisting of very cold-topped convection covers the western semicircle of the circulation, and deep convection has also begun to develop around the center in what appears to be the beginnings of an inner core. Subjective Dvorak intensity estimates remain at 2.0 from both TAFB and SAB, so the initial intensity estimate is kept at 30 kt for this advisory. However, recent trends suggest that the depression is very near tropical-storm strength. The center position has been difficult to determine, which, in turn, makes the depression's initial motion rather uncertain. A smoothing of the latest fixes suggests that the cyclone continues to move quickly toward the west-northwest, or 295/14, due to a strong subtropical ridge located to the north of the cyclone. Global models show a weak mid- to upper-level trough extending southward offshore of the California coast during the next few days, which is forecast to cause this ridge to weaken. This change in the steering pattern should result in a substantial reduction in the cyclone's forward speed with the track bending toward the west once the circulation becomes more shallow in nature. The NHC forecast track is quite a bit faster and to the right of the previous one, primarily due to the re-location of the center based upon first-light visible images. The forecast track lies on the far left side of the guidance envelope, closest to the ECMWF solution. Environmental conditions are favorable for strengthening during the next couple of days, but the large size and slow evolution of the inner core of the depression suggests that only gradual intensification is likely to occur. Beyond that time, the cyclone should reach cooler waters and move into a somewhat drier and more stable air mass, which should bring a halt to any further strengthening. The large-scale conditions should not, however, be hostile enough to cause a rapid decay of the cyclone, so only slow weakening is indicated late in the forecast period. The NHC intensity forecast is similar to the previous one, and is close to the multi-model consensus through 72 hours, but is a little lower on days 4-5. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 29/1500Z 16.4N 110.3W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 30/0000Z 17.0N 112.4W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 30/1200Z 17.5N 114.1W 50 KT 60 MPH 36H 01/0000Z 18.1N 115.4W 55 KT 65 MPH 48H 01/1200Z 18.5N 116.5W 55 KT 65 MPH 72H 02/1200Z 18.7N 117.7W 50 KT 60 MPH 96H 03/1200Z 18.7N 118.7W 35 KT 40 MPH 120H 04/1200Z 18.7N 120.0W 30 KT 35 MPH $$ Forecaster Kimberlain

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Tropical Depression FOUR-E Forecast Discussion Number 3

2014-06-29 10:32:52| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 200 AM PDT SUN JUN 29 2014 000 WTPZ44 KNHC 290832 TCDEP4 TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOUR-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 3 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP042014 200 AM PDT SUN JUN 29 2014 The tropical cyclone remains rather broad and sprawling early this morning, with some deep convective banding features trying to develop. Data from an ASCAT overpass suggests that the system does not yet have strong winds very close to the center, and that it is below tropical storm strength. This is also in agreement with Dvorak intensity estimates from TAFB and SAB. The current intensity is held at 30 kt based on those estimates. The depression continues to move fairly quickly toward the west-northwest, or about 290/14, due to a strong mid-level high pressure area that is currently situated to the north of the cyclone. Global models predict that this high pressure area will shift westward during the next few days, with a mid-level weakness developing to the north of the tropical cyclone later in the forecast period. Consequently, the system should gradually slow its forward speed within the next couple of days. The official track forecast is similar to the previous one and fairly close to the latest ECMWF solution. The broad nature of the cyclone and lack of an inner core argues against any rapid strengthening. Nonetheless, vertical shear is forecast to remain low and the system will be traversing sufficiently warm waters to allow for strengthening during the next few days. The official wind speed forecast is very similar to the latest Decay-SHIPS guidance through 72 hours and close to the intensity model consensus thereafter. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 29/0900Z 15.3N 108.8W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 29/1800Z 16.0N 110.8W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 30/0600Z 16.7N 113.1W 45 KT 50 MPH 36H 30/1800Z 17.2N 114.7W 50 KT 60 MPH 48H 01/0600Z 17.6N 116.0W 55 KT 65 MPH 72H 02/0600Z 18.0N 117.5W 55 KT 65 MPH 96H 03/0600Z 18.0N 118.5W 50 KT 60 MPH 120H 04/0600Z 17.5N 120.0W 45 KT 50 MPH $$ Forecaster Pasch

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Tropical Depression FOUR-E Forecast Discussion Number 1

2014-06-28 22:45:22| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 200 PM PDT SAT JUN 28 2014 000 WTPZ44 KNHC 282045 TCDEP4 TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOUR-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 1 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP042014 200 PM PDT SAT JUN 28 2014 Satellite images indicate that the area of low pressure southwest of Mexico has enough banded convective organization and center definition to be declared a tropical cyclone. The initial intensity is set to 30 kt, in agreement with an ASCAT-B pass from 1602 UTC. The large-scale environment looks favorable for strengthening, with an upper-level anticyclone located just east of the center, along with plenty of warm water. However, the depression has a rather large circulation envelope and radius of maximum winds, which could preclude anything more than gradual strengthening. Guidance is split, with the LGEM/SHIPS showing a strong tropical storm, while the HWRF/GFDL keep the system weaker through the first few days of the forecast. The NHC prediction is a little below the intensity consensus at first to account for the initial structure, then is above the consensus on Days 2/3 under the assumption the system eventually consolidates. Some weakening seems likely at longer ranges due to cooler waters and possible dry air aloft. The initial motion of the cyclone is 295/10. A ridge currently over the eastern Pacific and northern Mexico is forecast to build eastward and strengthen over the next couple of days, which should cause the cyclone to accelerate and take a slight leftward bend by Monday. The guidance is in good agreement and the NHC track forecast is close to the model consensus during this time. Afterward, there is much uncertainty in the forecast due to a possible interaction with invest EP97 to the east, along with the ridge likely weakening along 120W. The model solutions become rather divergent, ranging from a slow southward motion from the HWRF/GFDL to a moderate westward motion from the ECMWF/GEFS. The NHC forecast at long range will show a slow westward course, more in line with the ECMWF/GEFS solutions, and is west of the track consensus. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 28/2100Z 14.5N 105.8W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 29/0600Z 15.3N 107.5W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 29/1800Z 16.1N 110.5W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 30/0600Z 16.7N 113.1W 45 KT 50 MPH 48H 30/1800Z 17.1N 114.9W 50 KT 60 MPH 72H 01/1800Z 17.5N 116.5W 50 KT 60 MPH 96H 02/1800Z 17.5N 118.0W 45 KT 50 MPH 120H 03/1800Z 17.5N 120.0W 40 KT 45 MPH $$ Forecaster Blake

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Body Image Discussion with Robyn Lawley One for the Ages

2014-06-24 04:52:58| Apparel - Topix.net

Robyn Lawley is an Australian-born model who has been labeled 'plus-size' throughout her young career.

Tags: the image body discussion

 

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