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Hurricane ARTHUR Forecast Discussion Number 10
2014-07-03 10:59:52| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 AM EDT THU JUL 03 2014 000 WTNT41 KNHC 030859 TCDAT1 HURRICANE ARTHUR DISCUSSION NUMBER 10 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012014 500 AM EDT THU JUL 03 2014 Data from NOAA and Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate that Arthur has reached hurricane strength. Both aircraft showed several SFMR winds of 60 to 63 kt southeast of the center, and the NOAA aircraft reported a peak flight-level wind of 79 kt at 8,000 feet. Based on these data the initial intensity is set to 65 kt. Radar data show that Arthur was still having difficulty maintaining an eyewall overnight, likely due to dry mid/upper-level air being entrained into the storm. However, the overall radar presentation has improved during the past couple of hours. Some gradual intensification is forecast during the next 24 hours while the cyclone is in an environment of low shear and moves over warm waters. After that time, however, the shear increases dramatically as Arthur interacts with a deep-layer baroclinic zone moving off of the east coast of North America, and global model fields show Arthur completing extratropical transition by 72 hours. The NHC intensity forecast is similar to the previous one and remains close to the multi-model consensus IVCN through 24 hours and is a little below the consensus after that time. Radar data and aircraft fixes indicate that the current motion is now a little east of due north, or 010 degrees at 8 knots. Arthur should begin to recurve today ahead of the aforementioned deep-layer trough, and the track model guidance is in good agreement on this scenario. The NHC track forecast is similar to the previous one and remains near the middle of the dynamical model envelope and close to the TVCA multi-model consensus. The official forecast shows the center of Arthur moving very close to the North Carolina Outer Banks late tonight and early Friday. Arthur should then accelerate northeastward offshore of the mid-Atlantic states and the northeastern U.S. Friday and Friday night, and move into the Canadian Maritimes by Saturday before turning northward by the end of the period. The track, intensity, and wind radii forecast during the extratropical phase of Arthur have been coordinated with the Ocean Prediction Center. The new experimental potential storm surge flooding map is available at: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/graphics_at1.shtml?inundation FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 03/0900Z 31.3N 79.1W 65 KT 75 MPH 12H 03/1800Z 32.5N 78.3W 70 KT 80 MPH 24H 04/0600Z 34.7N 76.1W 75 KT 85 MPH 36H 04/1800Z 37.5N 72.6W 75 KT 85 MPH 48H 05/0600Z 40.9N 67.9W 70 KT 80 MPH 72H 06/0600Z 47.5N 60.0W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 96H 07/0600Z 54.0N 52.0W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 120H 08/0600Z 60.0N 50.0W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP $$ Forecaster Brennan
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Tropical Storm DOUGLAS Forecast Discussion Number 19
2014-07-03 10:48:52| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 AM PDT THU JUL 03 2014 000 WTPZ44 KNHC 030848 TCDEP4 TROPICAL STORM DOUGLAS DISCUSSION NUMBER 19 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP042014 200 AM PDT THU JUL 03 2014 After an earlier burst of convection in the northern semicircle, thunderstorm activity has been gradually waning over the past few hours with cloud tops warming during the normal convective maximum period. However, TRMM and AMSU microwave satellite data indicate that Douglas has maintained a tight low-level circulation, including a shallow eye-like feature, so the initial intensity is being maintained at 35 kt, which is consistent with satellite estimates of 35 kt from TAFB and 34 kt from the UW-CIMSS ADT. Douglas is moving slowly northwestward, or 315/03 kt. There is no significant change to the previous forecast track or reasoning. Douglas is expected to steadily weaken and gradually become a more shallow vortex that will be steered toward the west-northwest or west by low-level trade wind flow on the south side of the Pacific subtropical ridge. The official NHC forecast track is basically just an update of the previous advisory track and lies close to but just south of the consensus model TVCE. Douglas will gradually weaken throughout the forecast period as the cyclone ingests cooler and more stable air, and also moves over sub-24C sea-surface temperatures by 24 hours. Douglas should become a depression later today, possibly even this morning, and degenerate further into a remnant low by Friday. The NHC intensity forecast is consistent with most of the available intensity guidance. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 03/0900Z 20.4N 116.5W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 03/1800Z 20.7N 116.9W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 04/0600Z 21.1N 117.6W 25 KT 30 MPH 36H 04/1800Z 21.6N 118.4W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 05/0600Z 22.3N 119.6W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 06/0600Z 23.4N 122.6W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 07/0600Z 24.3N 125.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 08/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Stewart
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Bassett Furniture Industries Inc - 10-Q - Management's Discussion and ...
2014-07-03 06:10:54| Furniture - Topix.net
Overview Bassett is a leading retailer, manufacturer and marketer of branded home furnishings.
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Tropical Storm ARTHUR Forecast Discussion Number 9
2014-07-03 04:55:58| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 PM EDT WED JUL 02 2014 000 WTNT41 KNHC 030255 TCDAT1 TROPICAL STORM ARTHUR DISCUSSION NUMBER 9 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012014 1100 PM EDT WED JUL 02 2014 Reports from Air Force Reserve and NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft, along with satellite data, indicate that Arthur is very near hurricane strength. On one side, the central pressure has fallen to 988 mb, there were a few estimates of hurricane force winds from the SFMR instrument on the Air Force plane, and there are several satellite intensity estimates of 65-75 kt. On the other side, the flight-level winds from the two aircraft did not support hurricane strength, and the SFMR winds from the NOAA plane were also below hurricane strength. Given the conflicting data, the initial intensity is held at 60 kt. Another aircraft is scheduled to investigate Arthur around 06Z. The initial motion is now 360/7. Arthur is moving through a weakness in the subtropical ridge towards the westerlies over the eastern United States. During the next 24-36 hours, the cyclone should recurve northeastward ahead of a deep-layer baroclinic trough moving eastward through the Great Lakes and New England. While the guidance is in good agreement with this scenario, the center of the guidance envelope has again shifted a little westward toward the North Carolina coast. The GFS has made a rather significant shift since the previous run, and it now brings the center of Arthur across eastern North Carolina. The new forecast track is shifted a little closer to the coast, but it will stay in the center of the guidance envelope to the east of the GFS. Coastal radar data shows that Arthur is having trouble maintaining a closed eyewall, which is likely due to continued entrainment of dry air. However, the storm should remain in an area of light vertical wind shear and over warm sea surface temperatures for the next 36 hours or so. Thus, the new intensity forecast calls for additional strengthening during that time similar to the previous forecast. After 48 hours, Arthur should merge with the baroclinic trough over the Canadian Maritimes and become extratropical. The intensities and wind radii during the extratropical phase have been modified based on input from the Ocean Prediction Center. The new experimental potential storm surge flooding map is available at: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/graphics_at1.shtml?inundation FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 03/0300Z 30.6N 79.1W 60 KT 70 MPH 12H 03/1200Z 31.7N 78.9W 65 KT 75 MPH 24H 04/0000Z 33.5N 77.4W 70 KT 80 MPH 36H 04/1200Z 36.0N 74.5W 75 KT 85 MPH 48H 05/0000Z 39.0N 70.7W 75 KT 85 MPH 72H 06/0000Z 45.5N 63.0W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 96H 07/0000Z 51.0N 55.5W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 120H 08/0000Z 55.5N 50.5W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP $$ Forecaster Beven
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Tropical Storm DOUGLAS Forecast Discussion Number 18
2014-07-03 04:37:45| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 PM PDT WED JUL 02 2014 000 WTPZ44 KNHC 030237 TCDEP4 TROPICAL STORM DOUGLAS DISCUSSION NUMBER 18 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP042014 800 PM PDT WED JUL 02 2014 Conventional satellite imagery shows that a convective band with -70C cloud top temperatures has persisted over the northeast portion of the cyclone. A compromise of the Dvorak satellite intensity estimates from TAFB/SAB and the CIMSS ADT CI supports holding the initial intensity at 35 kt for this advisory. An intruding dry and stable thermodynamic air mass and decreasing sea surface temperatures of less than 25C should induce weakening through the forecast period. The cyclone is forecast to become a depression on Thursday and weaken further into a remant low near the 36 hr period. Douglas continues to move north-northwestward, or 330/2 kt, within the weak steering flow produced by a mid-level ridge extending across the eastern Pacific from the southwest United States. A turn toward the northwest is forecast on Thursday with a slight increase in forward speed as the aforementioned ridge gradually strengthens. By the 36 hour period, Douglas is expected to move west-northwestward within the low-level tradewind flow as a remnant low and continue on this general track through the remainder of the forecast. The official NHC forecast track is slightly to the right of the previous advisory and is close to the TVCE multi-model consensus. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 03/0300Z 20.2N 116.3W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 03/1200Z 20.4N 116.5W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 04/0000Z 20.8N 117.1W 30 KT 35 MPH 36H 04/1200Z 21.3N 117.9W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 05/0000Z 21.9N 119.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 06/0000Z 23.2N 122.1W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 07/0000Z 24.0N 125.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 08/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Roberts
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