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Hurricane CRISTINA Forecast Discussion Number 15

2014-06-13 04:31:37| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 800 PM PDT THU JUN 12 2014 000 WTPZ43 KNHC 130231 TCDEP3 HURRICANE CRISTINA DISCUSSION NUMBER 15 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032014 800 PM PDT THU JUN 12 2014 Cristina has weakened during the last several hours. The eye has lost definition and is now barely apparent in satellite images. In addition, the cloud pattern has become asymmetric with the convection being eroded to the west of the center, likely due to mid-level dry air and some westerly shear. Dvorak intensity numbers from all agencies are decreasing, and the initial wind speed is lowered to 105 kt based on those estimates. Cristina is expected to continue weakening as it moves toward a more hostile environment, including progressively colder waters during the next several days. The NHC intensity forecast is lower than the previous one to account for the observed weakening, and is in good agreement with the intensity model consensus IVCN. The hurricane is moving west-northwestward at about 7 kt. A west-northwestward to northwestward motion is expected during the next couple of days as Cristina is steered by a mid-level ridge over northern Mexico. After that time, the weakening and shallower system should turn westward steered by the low-level flow. The NHC track forecast is once again nudged northward following the trend in the latest guidance. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 13/0300Z 17.3N 108.3W 105 KT 120 MPH 12H 13/1200Z 18.0N 109.2W 95 KT 110 MPH 24H 14/0000Z 18.8N 110.5W 85 KT 100 MPH 36H 14/1200Z 19.4N 111.5W 75 KT 85 MPH 48H 15/0000Z 19.8N 112.5W 65 KT 75 MPH 72H 16/0000Z 20.0N 114.1W 45 KT 50 MPH 96H 17/0000Z 20.0N 116.3W 30 KT 35 MPH 120H 18/0000Z 19.5N 119.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Cangialosi

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Hurricane CRISTINA Forecast Discussion Number 14

2014-06-12 22:37:09| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 200 PM PDT THU JUN 12 2014 000 WTPZ43 KNHC 122037 TCDEP3 HURRICANE CRISTINA DISCUSSION NUMBER 14 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032014 200 PM PDT THU JUN 12 2014 Cristina appeared to peak in intensity earlier this morning around 1200 UTC. Deep convection has become less symmetric since that time, and the eye is somewhat cloud filled in the latest visible images. The initial intensity is lowered to 120 kt for this advisory, which is close to a blend of current intensity estimates from TAFB, SAB, and the objective ADT. Although a UW-CIMSS shear analysis indicates that about 10 kt of west-southwesterly shear is affecting Cristina, it is likely that internal dynamics within the core of the hurricane are also modulating the intensity. Only gradual weakening is forecast during the next 24-36 hours since vertical wind shear is expected to remain light and the ocean is sufficiently warm. After 48 hours, environmental conditions become more hostile, and quicker weakening is anticipated after that time. Given the hurricane's current structure, the statistical models appear too sluggish in showing weakening in the short-term, and the NHC intensity forecast therefore shows faster weakening during the first 36 hours. The initial motion remains 295/7 kt with Cristina located to the south of a mid-level ridge over northern Mexico. The track models are tightly clustered for much of the forecast period, showing Cristina maintaining a northwestward to west-northwestward motion through the next 48 hours. After that time, the weakening cyclone will be steered to the west by lower-level flow. The updated NHC track forecast is moved a little north of the previous forecast during the first 48 hours in response to a general shift in the guidance envelope, but overall the change is quite negligible. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 12/2100Z 16.9N 107.8W 120 KT 140 MPH 12H 13/0600Z 17.6N 108.9W 115 KT 135 MPH 24H 13/1800Z 18.4N 110.2W 105 KT 120 MPH 36H 14/0600Z 19.1N 111.4W 90 KT 105 MPH 48H 14/1800Z 19.5N 112.3W 80 KT 90 MPH 72H 15/1800Z 19.7N 113.9W 55 KT 65 MPH 96H 16/1800Z 19.8N 115.9W 40 KT 45 MPH 120H 17/1800Z 19.5N 119.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Berg

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Hurricane CRISTINA Forecast Discussion Number 13

2014-06-12 17:04:33| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 800 AM PDT THU JUN 12 2014 000 WTPZ43 KNHC 121504 TCDEP3 HURRICANE CRISTINA DISCUSSION NUMBER 13...CORRECTED NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032014 800 AM PDT THU JUN 12 2014 Corrected wording in last paragraph Cristina has gone through an extraordinary, but not unprecedented, phase of rapid intensification during the past 24 hours, with its maximum winds increasing by about 65 kt since this time yesterday. The hurricane has a circular central dense overcast with very cold cloud tops to near -80C. Water vapor images indicate that upper-level outflow is somewhat restricted in the southwestern quadrant but is good elsewhere. Cristina has strengthened so fast that TAFB and SAB satellite estimates are limited to T6.0/115 kt by Dvorak rules. The initial intensity is set at 130 kt, a little below the latest objective ADT estimate of T6.8/135 kt. The intensity trend appears to have leveled off a bit, and no further significant strengthening is expected. However, light vertical wind shear and a deep warm ocean should allow Cristina to maintain major hurricane strength for another 36 hours or so. After that time, gradually increasing vertical shear and cooler sea surface temperatures should induce significant weakening after about 48 hours. The official intensity forecast is fairly close to the consensus ICON and is similar to that of the special advisory. Cristina is located to the south of a mid-level ridge centered over northern Mexico, and the initial motion remains 295/7 kt. The cyclone is expected to maintain a west-northwestward to northwestward heading during the next 4 days due to the ridge, and the track guidance is in fairly good agreement on this scenario. The GFDL model is the primary outlier, taking Cristina farther north after 48 hours. The official forecast sticks with the rest of the guidance, however, and is relatively unchanged from the previous advisory. With Hurricanes Amanda and Cristina reaching category 4 status, this is the first time there have been two category 4 hurricanes through June in the eastern North Pacific basin since the beginning of the satellite era in 1966. Prior to Cristina, the earliest second category 4 hurricane was Hurricane Elida in 1984, which reached that threshold on July 1. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 12/1500Z 16.6N 107.1W 130 KT 150 MPH 12H 13/0000Z 17.2N 108.2W 130 KT 150 MPH 24H 13/1200Z 17.9N 109.5W 115 KT 135 MPH 36H 14/0000Z 18.7N 110.7W 100 KT 115 MPH 48H 14/1200Z 19.2N 111.7W 85 KT 100 MPH 72H 15/1200Z 19.7N 113.1W 65 KT 75 MPH 96H 16/1200Z 20.0N 114.5W 45 KT 50 MPH 120H 17/1200Z 20.0N 117.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Berg

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Hurricane CRISTINA Forecast Discussion Number 12

2014-06-12 14:19:36| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 530 AM PDT THU JUN 12 2014 000 WTPZ43 KNHC 121219 TCDEP3 HURRICANE CRISTINA SPECIAL DISCUSSION NUMBER 12 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032014 530 AM PDT THU JUN 12 2014 Cristina has continued to rapidly intensify overnight. Its well-defined eye is now completely surrounded by cloud tops as cold as -80C, and the current intensity is estimated to be around 125 kt based mainly on objective ADT guidance. This makes Cristina the second category 4 hurricane of the eastern North Pacific season. This special advisory is being issued to update the initial intensity and the intensity forecast during the first 24 hours. The remainder of the forecast remains unchanged from the 0900 UTC advisory. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 12/1230Z 16.4N 106.9W 125 KT 145 MPH 12H 12/1800Z 16.7N 107.5W 130 KT 150 MPH 24H 13/0600Z 17.5N 108.9W 110 KT 125 MPH 36H 13/1800Z 18.3N 110.1W 95 KT 110 MPH 48H 14/0600Z 19.0N 111.3W 80 KT 90 MPH 72H 15/0600Z 19.7N 112.8W 60 KT 70 MPH 96H 16/0600Z 20.0N 114.0W 45 KT 50 MPH 120H 17/0600Z 20.0N 116.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Berg

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Hurricane CRISTINA Forecast Discussion Number 11

2014-06-12 10:39:04| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 200 AM PDT THU JUN 12 2014 000 WTPZ43 KNHC 120838 TCDEP3 HURRICANE CRISTINA DISCUSSION NUMBER 11 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032014 200 AM PDT THU JUN 12 2014 Satellite images indicate that Cristina has rapidly intensified during the past several hours. Convection around the center has become more intense and symmetric, with the eye also becoming better defined and warmer. Dvorak estimates range from 102-112 kt, and 105 kt is chosen as the initial wind speed. Cirrus clouds approaching the storm from the southwest suggest an increase in shear is coming sooner rather than later, so only a small intensification is predicted today. A weakening trend should begin on Friday due to increasing southwesterly shear and cooler waters, with Cristina likely transitioning into a remnant low over the cool eastern Pacific waters by day 5. The NHC intensity forecast is higher than the previous one in the short term to account for the initial intensity, but is otherwise unchanged beyond 36 hours. Cristina is moving at 295/7 around the southern periphery of a mid-level high over Mexico. A west-northwestward to northwestward motion is forecast during the next few days while the hurricane remains steered by the high. Cristina should turn toward the west and decelerate over the weekend when the weakening cyclone becomes more steered by the low-level flow. Although there is still some model disagreement at long range, the model consensus is almost unchanged from the previous one, and the new NHC forecast is basically an update of the last prediction. Cristina is the earliest second major hurricane formation in the eastern Pacific since reliable records began in 1971, eclipsing the former record of Darby (2010) by 13 days. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 12/0900Z 16.2N 106.5W 105 KT 120 MPH 12H 12/1800Z 16.7N 107.5W 110 KT 125 MPH 24H 13/0600Z 17.5N 108.9W 105 KT 120 MPH 36H 13/1800Z 18.3N 110.1W 95 KT 110 MPH 48H 14/0600Z 19.0N 111.3W 80 KT 90 MPH 72H 15/0600Z 19.7N 112.8W 60 KT 70 MPH 96H 16/0600Z 20.0N 114.0W 45 KT 50 MPH 120H 17/0600Z 20.0N 116.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Blake

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