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Post-Tropical Cyclone DOUGLAS Forecast Discussion Number 28
2014-07-05 17:11:05| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 AM PDT SAT JUL 05 2014 000 WTPZ44 KNHC 051510 TCDEP4 POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE DOUGLAS DISCUSSION NUMBER 28...CORRECTED NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP042014 800 AM PDT SAT JUL 05 2014 Corrected capitalization in last paragraph. Douglas remains devoid of deep convection, and since the sea surface temperatures are below 22 deg C, there is little likelihood of the system making a comeback. Therefore the system is being declared a remnant low, and this is the last advisory. The large circulation has been slow to spin down, but gradual weakening is anticipated with the cyclone expected to dissipate in about 72 hours. The initial motion continues northwestward at about 8 kt. Post-tropical cyclone Douglas should continue to be steered by the flow on the south side of a low- to mid-level subtropical ridge. The track guidance generally shows a turn toward the west-northwest with a slight decrease in forward speed over the next couple of days, and so does the official forecast. For additional information on the remnant low of Douglas, please see High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service, under AWIPS header NFDHSFEPI and WMO header FZPN01 KWBC. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 05/1500Z 23.7N 120.1W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 06/0000Z 24.4N 121.1W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 24H 06/1200Z 25.4N 122.4W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 07/0000Z 26.1N 123.4W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 07/1200Z 26.5N 124.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 08/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Pasch
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Post-Tropical Cyclone ARTHUR Forecast Discussion Number 19
2014-07-05 17:01:06| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 AM EDT SAT JUL 05 2014 000 WTNT41 KNHC 051500 TCDAT1 POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE ARTHUR DISCUSSION NUMBER 19 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012014 1100 AM EDT SAT JUL 05 2014 Surface, satellite, and earlier NOAA reconnaissance aircraft data indicate that Arthur became an extratropical cyclone by 1200 UTC this morning. The earlier aircraft reports and recent wind observations show that the cyclone continues to weaken, and the initial intensity is lowered to 50 kt. The post-tropical cyclone should continue to weaken during the next day or so and winds are expected to be below gale force in 48 to 72 hours. The cyclone is now forecast to dissipate by the end of the forecast period. The cyclone is moving north-northeastward at about 21 kt. A north-northeastward to northeastward motion at a slower forward speed is expected during the next day or so. A turn toward the north and a further reduction in forward speed is forecast in a few days. The lastest track forecast is similar to the previous forecast through 48 hours, but has been adjusted westward thereafter to be in better agreement with the latest track guidance. This will be the last NHC advisory on Arthur. For additional information, including warnings, consult products issued by the Canadian Hurricane Centre at: weather.gc.ca/hurricane/index_e.html Statements on the post-tropical cyclone are also being issued by the Canadian Hurricane Centre under WMO header WOCN31 CWHX and in French at WOCN41 CWHX. For marine interests, additional information can be found in High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1 and WMO header FZNT01 KWBC. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 05/1500Z 45.0N 65.5W 50 KT 60 MPH 12H 06/0000Z 47.0N 63.5W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 24H 06/1200Z 49.0N 60.0W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 36H 07/0000Z 52.0N 56.0W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 48H 07/1200Z 56.0N 53.0W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 72H 08/1200Z 60.5N 54.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 96H 09/1200Z 60.5N 52.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 120H 10/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Brown/Pasch
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Post-Tropical Cyclone DOUGLAS Forecast Discussion Number 28
2014-07-05 16:37:04| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 AM PDT SAT JUL 05 2014 000 WTPZ44 KNHC 051436 TCDEP4 POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE DOUGLAS DISCUSSION NUMBER 28 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP042014 800 AM PDT SAT JUL 05 2014 Douglas remains devoid of deep convection, and since the sea surface temperatures are below 22 deg C, there is little likelihood of the system making a comeback. Therefore the system is being declared a remnant low, and this is the last advisory. The large circulation has been slow to spin down, but gradual weakening is anticipated with the cyclone expected to dissipate in about 72 hours. The initial motion continues northwestward at about 8 kt. Post-tropical cyclone Douglas should continue to be steered by the flow on the south side of a low- to mid-level subtropical ridge. The track guidance generally shows a turn toward the west-northwest with a slight decrease in forward speed over the next couple of days, and so does the official forecast. for additional information on the remnant low of Douglas, please see high seas forecasts issued by the national weather service...under awips header nfdhsfepi and wmo header fzpn01 kwbc. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 05/1500Z 23.7N 120.1W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 06/0000Z 24.4N 121.1W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 24H 06/1200Z 25.4N 122.4W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 07/0000Z 26.1N 123.4W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 07/1200Z 26.5N 124.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 08/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Pasch
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Tropical Depression DOUGLAS Forecast Discussion Number 27
2014-07-05 10:46:08| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 AM PDT SAT JUL 05 2014 000 WTPZ44 KNHC 050845 TCDEP4 TROPICAL DEPRESSION DOUGLAS DISCUSSION NUMBER 27 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP042014 200 AM PDT SAT JUL 05 2014 Douglas has once again lost its deep convection, likely now for the final time. The small patch of showers and thunderstorms dissipated around 03Z and Dvorak intensity analyses from SAB and TAFB suggest that Douglas has weakened to a tropical depression. With expected continued cool water and a stable atmosphere along its track, the cyclone should become a remnant low shortly. The depression is moving northwestward at 8 kt. A low to mid-level subtropical ridge to its northeast will continue to steer Douglas toward the northwest or west-northwest at a slightly slower speed for the next two days until dissipation. The track forecast is again nudged to the north of the previous advisory and is based upon the multi-model consensus TVCE. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 05/0900Z 23.1N 119.6W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 05/1800Z 23.9N 120.6W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 24H 06/0600Z 24.9N 121.9W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 06/1800Z 25.8N 122.9W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 07/0600Z 26.5N 124.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 08/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Landsea
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Tropical Storm ARTHUR Forecast Discussion Number 18
2014-07-05 10:45:01| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 AM EDT SAT JUL 05 2014 000 WTNT41 KNHC 050844 TCDAT1 TROPICAL STORM ARTHUR DISCUSSION NUMBER 18 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012014 500 AM EDT SAT JUL 05 2014 Satellite imagery and data from an Air Force reconnaissance plane indicate that Arthur is rapidly losing tropical characteristics. The low-level center is now displaced from the convection, and the rain shield has expanded significantly toward the northwest. However,the circulation is still vigorous given that there was a peak wind of 83 knots at 850 mb reported by the Air Force plane. These strong winds are not reaching the surface, and the initial intensity is set at 60 knots based on SFMR reports. Arthur should complete extratropical transition later today and should weaken. Arthur has slowed down as anticipated and is moving toward the northeast at 19 knots. The cyclone should continue on this general track steered by the southwesterly flow ahead of a mid-latitude trough. In fact, most of the global models show Arthur becoming associated with this trough in about 12 to 24 hours. Both intensity and track forecasts during the post-tropical stage have been adjusted based on input from the OPC. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 05/0900Z 43.1N 66.9W 60 KT 70 MPH 12H 05/1800Z 45.5N 64.5W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 24H 06/0600Z 47.0N 61.5W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 36H 06/1800Z 49.5N 57.5W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 48H 07/0600Z 52.5N 54.0W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 72H 08/0600Z 60.0N 51.5W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 96H 09/0600Z 58.5N 50.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 120H 10/0600Z 62.1N 43.2W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP $$ Forecaster Avila
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