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Tropical Storm DOUGLAS Forecast Discussion Number 13
2014-07-01 22:41:43| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 PM PDT TUE JUL 01 2014 000 WTPZ44 KNHC 012041 TCDEP4 TROPICAL STORM DOUGLAS DISCUSSION NUMBER 13 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP042014 200 PM PDT TUE JUL 01 2014 Since the last advisory, deep convection associated with Douglas has consolidated into a long band wrapping around the western and southern portions of the broad circulation. As a result, Dvorak intensity estimates have increased slightly to 3.0/45 kt from TAFB and SAB, while the latest UW-CIMSS ADT CI value is at 2.6/35 kt. A blend of these data is used to arrive at an initial intensity of 40 kt for this advisory. Even though Douglas is in a nearly shear-free environment, the cyclone is traversing gradually decreasing sea surface temperatures and ingesting somewhat drier and more stable air. Given these negative thermodynamic factors, the intensity guidance shows a slow decay of the cyclone's winds during the next few days. The NHC intensity forecast follows this philosophy and is about the same as the previous one. The forecast is in basic agreement with the latest multi-model consensus, and still shows remnant low status on day 3 and dissipation just after day 5. The latest fixes suggest that the cyclone's forward speed may be decreasing, and the initial motion estimate is now 310/04. A weakness in the subtropical ridge north of Douglas should result in a further reduction in forward speed, with a possible bend of the track toward the north-northwest during the next day or so. As the cyclone becomes shallower, a turn toward the west-northwest and then the west with some increase in forward speed should occur prior to dissipation. The NHC track forecast is adjusted slightly to the right on the basis of the latest multi-model consensus but is on the far left side of the guidance envelope. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 01/2100Z 19.2N 115.9W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 02/0600Z 19.5N 116.2W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 02/1800Z 19.9N 116.5W 35 KT 40 MPH 36H 03/0600Z 20.2N 116.8W 30 KT 35 MPH 48H 03/1800Z 20.5N 117.3W 30 KT 35 MPH 72H 04/1800Z 21.0N 119.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 05/1800Z 21.6N 122.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 06/1800Z 21.8N 125.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Kimberlain
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Tropical Storm ELIDA Forecast Discussion Number 6
2014-07-01 22:36:10| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 PM PDT TUE JUL 01 2014 000 WTPZ45 KNHC 012036 TCDEP5 TROPICAL STORM ELIDA DISCUSSION NUMBER 6 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052014 200 PM PDT TUE JUL 01 2014 Strong northwesterly wind shear persists over Elida, and the cyclone has become a tight swirl of low clouds devoid of deep convection. Satellite intensity estimates continue to decrease, and on this basis, the initial intensity has been lowered to 35 knots. These winds are probably confined to a small area to the north and east of the center. Global models indicate that the shear will continue and, in fact, most of them weaken Elida to a low or a trough in a few days. The NHC forecast is along the line of such models. Elida continues to be trapped in very weak steering currents, and it has been drifting southeastward during the past several hours. The steering flow is forecast by global models to remain weak during the next day or two, and little motion is anticipated during that period. A ridge is forecast to develop over Mexico beyond 3 days, and this pattern should force Elida or its remnants to begin moving slowly westward away from Mexico. This is consistent with the multi-model consensus trend. The government of Mexico has discontinued the tropical storm warning, however, a few strong squalls could still affect the coast during the next 12 to 24 hours. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 01/2100Z 17.2N 103.9W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 02/0600Z 17.0N 103.8W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 02/1800Z 16.8N 103.9W 30 KT 35 MPH 36H 03/0600Z 16.9N 104.1W 25 KT 30 MPH 48H 03/1800Z 17.0N 104.5W 25 KT 30 MPH 72H 04/1800Z 17.0N 106.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 05/1800Z 17.0N 108.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 06/1800Z 17.0N 111.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Avila
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Tropical Storm ARTHUR Forecast Discussion Number 3
2014-07-01 17:02:05| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 AM EDT TUE JUL 01 2014 000 WTNT41 KNHC 011502 TCDAT1 TROPICAL STORM ARTHUR DISCUSSION NUMBER 3 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012014 1100 AM EDT TUE JUL 01 2014 Radar and satellite imagery indicate that the convective organization of the cyclone has improved since the previous advisory, and the cyclone is being upgraded based on a sustained wind report of 33 kt from Settlement Point (SPGF1) on Grand Bahama Island earlier this morning that was outside of the deep convection. After remaining nearly stationary earlier this morning, Arthur appears to to be drifting northwestward now with an uncertain motion of 315/02 kt. Otherwise, there is no significant change to the previous forecast track. The latest model guidance has continued the trend of a pronounced mid-tropospheric trough digging southeastward from the upper-midwest into the northeastern and mid-Atlantic region of the United States by 72 hours. The 500 mb flow pattern is almost identical in the GFS and ECMWF models, which increases the confidence in this evolving pattern. As a result, a steady increase in southwesterly steering flow over the southeastern United States is expected to gradually turn the tropical cyclone northward over the next 24-36 hours, and then accelerate the system faster toward the northeast on Thursday and Friday. By Days 4 and 5, Arthur is forecast to move over the far north Atlantic as an extratropical cyclone. The NHC track forecast is just an update of the previous advisory track, and lies down the middle of the tightly packed guidance envelope close to the consensus model TVCA. Northwesterly vertical wind shear is forecast by the models to gradually subside over the next 48 hours, which should allow the cyclone to develop its own upper-level outflow pattern. In fact, latest visible and water vapor imagery indicates that cirrus outflow has been expanding on the north side of the system during the past few hours, suggesting that the shear conditions could already be subsiding. The low shear conditions and warm sea-surface temperatures should allow for at least steady strengthening, and the cyclone is expected to become a hurricane by 72 hours. The official intensity forecast is similar to the latest intensity model consensus IVCN through 36 hours, and then slightly higher after that. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 01/1500Z 27.6N 79.3W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 02/0000Z 27.8N 79.4W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 02/1200Z 28.7N 79.6W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 03/0000Z 29.8N 79.5W 50 KT 60 MPH 48H 03/1200Z 31.2N 78.9W 60 KT 70 MPH 72H 04/1200Z 35.4N 75.2W 70 KT 80 MPH 96H 05/1200Z 40.8N 67.3W 65 KT 75 MPH 120H 06/1200Z 45.5N 59.5W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP $$ Forecaster Stewart
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Tropical Storm DOUGLAS Forecast Discussion Number 12
2014-07-01 16:47:36| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 AM PDT TUE JUL 01 2014 000 WTPZ44 KNHC 011447 TCDEP4 TROPICAL STORM DOUGLAS DISCUSSION NUMBER 12 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP042014 800 AM PDT TUE JUL 01 2014 Conventional satellite imagery indicates that the Douglas' cloud pattern has not changed much this morning, except for some cooling of cloud top temperatures northwest of the center. A blend of Dvorak intensity estimates and an ADT CI value of 2.2 are used to lower the initial wind speed estimate to 35 kt on this advisory. Although the vertical wind shear is forecast to remain low during the next few days, Douglas will be traversing gradually decreasing sea surface temperatures and ingesting somewhat drier and more stable air. These factors should result in a gradual weakening of the cyclone, and remnant low status is indicated by day 3. The NHC intensity forecast is reduced slightly relative to the previous one and is near the multi-model consensus. The initial motion estimate is 310/06. The subtropical ridge to the north of the cyclone is weakening, which should result in a further reduction of forward speed on a west-northwesterly heading during the next couple of days. Once Douglas becomes a shallower vortex in 2-3 days, a bend of the track toward the west is expected, followed by some increase in forward speed. The NHC track forecast is basically an update of the previous one, nudged slightly to the north in the direction of the multi-model consensus. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 01/1500Z 19.1N 115.9W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 02/0000Z 19.4N 116.2W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 02/1200Z 19.7N 116.6W 35 KT 40 MPH 36H 03/0000Z 19.9N 116.9W 30 KT 35 MPH 48H 03/1200Z 20.1N 117.3W 30 KT 35 MPH 72H 04/1200Z 20.5N 118.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 05/1200Z 21.0N 120.7W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 06/1200Z 21.5N 124.4W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Kimberlain
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Tropical Storm ELIDA Forecast Discussion Number 5
2014-07-01 16:35:37| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 AM PDT TUE JUL 01 2014 000 WTPZ45 KNHC 011435 TCDEP5 TROPICAL STORM ELIDA DISCUSSION NUMBER 5 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052014 800 AM PDT TUE JUL 01 2014 Strong northwesterly wind shear continues over Elida, and satellite imagery indicates that the low-level center is located on the northern edge of the deep convection. Since the cloud pattern has lost some organization since yesterday, the Dvorak T-numbers suggest a weaker cyclone. The initial intensity has thus been lowered to 40 knots at this time. The shear over Elida is forecast to continue during the next couple of days, and consequently, no significant change in intensity is anticipated. Elida could re-strengthen a little when the shear relaxes beyond 72 hours. The official forecast is consistent with the intensity guidance which shows no important change in strength in 5 days. Elida is trapped in very weak steering currents, and it has barely moved during the past several hours. The steering flow is forecast by global models to remain weak during the next day or two, and little motion is anticipated during that period. A ridge is forecast to develop over Mexico beyond 3 days, and this pattern should force Elida to begin slowly westward away from Mexico. This is consistent with the multi-model consensus trend. Given the new NHC forecast, the government of Mexico has adjusted the area of the tropical storm warning, and if Elida continues to weaken as it moves away from the coast, the tropical storm warning would likely be discontinued later today. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 01/1500Z 17.4N 104.3W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 02/0000Z 17.3N 104.2W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 02/1200Z 17.1N 104.0W 35 KT 40 MPH 36H 03/0000Z 17.0N 104.0W 35 KT 40 MPH 48H 03/1200Z 17.0N 104.5W 35 KT 40 MPH 72H 04/1200Z 17.0N 106.0W 40 KT 45 MPH 96H 05/1200Z 17.0N 108.5W 40 KT 45 MPH 120H 06/1200Z 17.0N 111.5W 40 KT 45 MPH $$ Forecaster Avila
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