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Fracking discussion scheduled in Swartz Creek

2014-07-08 17:07:36| Waste Management - Topix.net

A July 17 meeting has been scheduled by the Sierra Club Nepessing Group at the Swartz Creek Performing Arts Center to discuss fracking.

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Tropical Storm FAUSTO Forecast Discussion Number 4

2014-07-08 16:49:32| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 800 AM PDT TUE JUL 08 2014 000 WTPZ41 KNHC 081449 TCDEP1 TROPICAL STORM FAUSTO DISCUSSION NUMBER 4 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP062014 800 AM PDT TUE JUL 08 2014 Fausto's cloud pattern has not become better organized over the past few hours, with little evidence of banding features. The center is not easy to locate, even on first-light visible images, but microwave imagery suggest that it is near the northern edge of the main area of deep convection. The current intensity is held at 40 kt, but this may be generous in light of the latest subjective and objective Dvorak estimates. The upper-level outflow is well-defined except over the northwest quadrant of the storm. The tropical cyclone should be moving through a light vertical shear and warm ocean environment for the next couple of days, which would favor intensification. However, the air mass ahead of Fausto appears to be drier and more stable, and this would hinder strengthening. Global models such as the GFS and ECMWF continue to show the system weakening over the next several days, and this is likely due to the unfavorable thermodynamic factors. The official intensity forecast is a little more conservative than the previous ones, and close to the model consensus. The initial motion is estimated to be slightly north of west, or 280/12. There is little change to the track forecast reasoning. A low- to mid-level ridge to the north of Fausto should result in a generally west-northwestward track for the next several days. By days 3-5, a weakness in the ridge in the vicinity of 140-145 degrees west longitude should cause some deceleration and a slight turn to the right. At the end of the forecast period, it is expected that Fausto will be weakening and turning more westward in the lower-tropospheric steering flow. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 08/1500Z 9.7N 123.2W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 09/0000Z 10.3N 125.1W 45 KT 50 MPH 24H 09/1200Z 11.0N 127.7W 50 KT 60 MPH 36H 10/0000Z 11.9N 130.7W 50 KT 60 MPH 48H 10/1200Z 12.9N 133.6W 50 KT 60 MPH 72H 11/1200Z 14.8N 139.0W 45 KT 50 MPH 96H 12/1200Z 16.5N 142.5W 35 KT 40 MPH 120H 13/1200Z 17.5N 146.0W 30 KT 35 MPH $$ Forecaster Pasch

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Tropical Storm FAUSTO Forecast Discussion Number 3

2014-07-08 10:45:48| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 200 AM PDT TUE JUL 08 2014 000 WTPZ41 KNHC 080845 TCDEP1 TROPICAL STORM FAUSTO DISCUSSION NUMBER 3 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP062014 200 AM PDT TUE JUL 08 2014 Conventional satellite imagery indicates that Fausto's cloud pattern appears well organized, with plenty of cold-topped convection and a long band wrapping around the western and southern side of the circulation. However, a couple of ASCAT passes suggest that the cyclone's satellite presentation is misleading, as the low-level center is located near or outside of the northwestern edge of the main convective mass. This structure makes sense with UW-CIMSS shear analyses that show 10 to 15 kt of north-northwesterly shear affecting the cyclone. One of the ASCAT passes showed believable 37-knot winds about 60 n mi southeast of the center, so the initial intensity is maintained at 40 kt. The initial motion estimate is 270/12. Although Fausto has not gained much latitude yet, the track guidance shows the cyclone moving west-northwestward while it approaches the western periphery of a subtropical ridge and nears a weakness along 130w longitude. The latter feature is forecast to lift northward while retrograding, which should allow for enough ridging to keep Fausto on a west- northwestward heading until day 4 or 5. By that time, the cyclone is expected to weaken considerably and become shallower, which should result in a more westerly motion. The NHC track forecast is only slighty to the left of the previous one and a bit faster. The NHC track forecast continues to favor the left side of the guidance envelope and is closest to the HWRF, which had a better initialization of the cyclone. Except for some modest northwesterly or north-northwesterly shear, the large-scale environment is generally expected to be suitable for intensification over the short term. Beyond two days, thermodynamic conditions are forecast to gradually become less favorable and the shear is likely to increase considerably after 72 hours. These negative factors should result in weakening after a couple of days. The NHC intensity forecast is unchanged relative to the previous forecast and is near the mult-model consensus. It should be noted that the global models continue to depict Fausto as a weak feature that does not intensify further during the forecast period. Thus a plausible alternate scenario is for Fausto to degenerate into an open trough within a few days for reasons unknown. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 08/0900Z 9.5N 122.2W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 08/1800Z 9.9N 123.9W 45 KT 50 MPH 24H 09/0600Z 10.6N 126.5W 50 KT 60 MPH 36H 09/1800Z 11.5N 129.2W 55 KT 65 MPH 48H 10/0600Z 12.3N 131.8W 55 KT 65 MPH 72H 11/0600Z 14.3N 136.8W 50 KT 60 MPH 96H 12/0600Z 16.0N 141.0W 45 KT 50 MPH 120H 13/0600Z 17.0N 145.2W 35 KT 40 MPH $$ Forecaster Kimberlain

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Tropical Storm FAUSTO Forecast Discussion Number 2

2014-07-08 04:37:48| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 800 PM PDT MON JUL 07 2014 000 WTPZ41 KNHC 080237 TCDEP1 TROPICAL STORM FAUSTO DISCUSSION NUMBER 2 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP062014 800 PM PDT MON JUL 07 2014 The convective cloud pattern associated with Tropical Storm Fausto has continued to improve with numerous small curved bands having developed in the northern semicircle, while a large curved band has persisted in the southern semicircle. The upper-level outflow is good to excellent, and it has continued to expand and become more symmetrical. The initial intensity has been increased to 40 kt based on the improved cloud pattern, a 1757 UTC ASCAT-B overpass that showed a peak surface wind of 38 kt in the southeastern quadrant, and also the most recent UW-CIMSS ADT satellite intensity estimates of T2.8/41 kt. The initial motion estimate is 275/10 kt. The forecast track was shifted to the right of the previous advisory track, but the forecast reasoning remains unchanged. Fausto should move westward to west-northwestward for the next 72 hours or so as the cyclone skirts the southern periphery of a deep-layer ridge located to its north along 24N-25N latitude. By Days 4 and 5, a mid-tropospheric trough is forecast to dig southward from the north-central Pacific and weaken the ridge between 140W-150W longitude, causing Fausto to turn more northwestward toward the weakness or break in the ridge. As the cyclone gains latitude, it is expected to encounter increasing westerly to southwesterly vertical wind shear and cooler waters by Days 4 and 5, which should weaken the system and cause it to become more shallow and be steered more westward by the strong low-level easterly trade wind flow. The official forecast track is south of the consensus model TCVE due to expected weak northwesterly mid-level wind shear impinging on the vortex column and keeping it farther south closer to the deep convection. This complex steering pattern is depicted well by the HWRF model, which initialized Fausto much better than the other models, and shows a deeper vortex throughout the forecast period. Fausto is expected to remain in a favorable environment of wind shear less than 10 kt, mid-level moisture greater than 70 percent, and sea-surface temperatures in excess of 28C for the next 48 hours or so, which should result in at least gradual strengthening. The HWRF model makes Fausto a hurricane in about 48 hours, which isn't entirely out of the question if convection can wrap around the north side of the low-level center, resulting in a stronger and better developed vortex column. For now, however, the official intensity forecast remains similar to the previous advisory and closely follows the intensity consensus model IVCN due to modest mid-level shear undercutting the favorable upper-level outflow pattern, which is expected to inhibit development somewhat. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 08/0300Z 9.6N 120.7W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 08/1200Z 9.9N 122.2W 45 KT 50 MPH 24H 09/0000Z 10.5N 124.6W 50 KT 60 MPH 36H 09/1200Z 11.2N 127.2W 55 KT 65 MPH 48H 10/0000Z 12.1N 129.8W 55 KT 65 MPH 72H 11/0000Z 13.8N 135.0W 55 KT 65 MPH 96H 12/0000Z 15.5N 139.4W 45 KT 50 MPH 120H 13/0000Z 16.8N 143.5W 35 KT 40 MPH $$ Forecaster Stewart

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Tropical Storm FAUSTO Forecast Discussion Number 1

2014-07-08 00:45:15| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 330 PM PDT MON JUL 07 2014 000 WTPZ41 KNHC 072245 TCDEP1 TROPICAL STORM FAUSTO SPECIAL DISCUSSION NUMBER 1 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP062014 330 PM PDT MON JUL 07 2014 The area of low pressure located about 1000 nmi southwest of the southern tip of Baja California has acquired enough organized convection near the well-defined low-level circulation center to be classified as a tropical cyclone. Although convection has been waxing and waning over the past 12 hours or so, a new burst of deep convection with cloud tops as cold as -83C have developed near and just south of the center. The system is being designated as Tropical Storm Fausto based on wind data from two earlier ASCAT passes at 1704 UTC and 1757 UTC that indicated reliable wind speed of 35-38 kt in the southeastern quadrant. Upper-level outflow is good and continues to expand in all quadrants. The initial motion estimate is 275/11 kt and is based primarily on microwave satellite data. Fausto is expected to move westward for the next day or so and then turn toward the west-northwest after that as the cyclone moves along the southern periphery of a deep-layer subtropical ridge to its north. By Days 4 and 5, a weakness is forecast by all of the global models to develop between 140W-150W longitude, which should allow Fausto to turn more toward the northwest. Although some of the models show the cyclone turning into the ridge and beginning to recurve, the official forecast only shows a slight stair-step in the track since the GFS and ECMWF models show the ridge building back westward at the end of the Day 5 period. The official advisory track is a blend of the GFS and ECMWF models since they have a better depiction of the small tropical cyclone. Fausto is expected to remain in a favorable environment consisting of low vertical wind shear, a moist mid-level regime, and over sea-surface temperatures in excess of 28C for at least the next 72 hours. These conditions should allow for at least some gradual strengthening to occur, and the official forecast closely follows a blend of the GFS-based SHIPS and LGEM models. However, those intensity forecasts are based on the medium BAM model, which takes the cyclone well north of the official forecast track and into strong shear conditions and over colder water by Days 4 and 5. If Fausto fallows a low-latitude track as indicated by the NHC forecast, then strengthening rather than weakening could occur in the latter periods. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 07/2230Z 9.5N 120.1W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 08/0600Z 9.7N 121.5W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 08/1800Z 10.0N 124.1W 45 KT 50 MPH 36H 09/0600Z 10.7N 127.0W 50 KT 60 MPH 48H 09/1800Z 11.5N 130.4W 55 KT 65 MPH 72H 10/1800Z 12.6N 136.0W 55 KT 65 MPH 96H 11/1800Z 14.7N 140.9W 45 KT 50 MPH 120H 12/1800Z 16.0N 146.0W 35 KT 40 MPH $$ Forecaster Stewart

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