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Tropical Depression DOUGLAS Forecast Discussion Number 22
2014-07-04 04:33:34| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 PM PDT THU JUL 03 2014 000 WTPZ44 KNHC 040233 TCDEP4 TROPICAL DEPRESSION DOUGLAS DISCUSSION NUMBER 22 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP042014 800 PM PDT THU JUL 03 2014 The center of Douglas is partially exposed to the west of a small area of deep convection. Satellite intensity estimates are about the same as earlier, so 30 kt is kept as the initial wind speed. Douglas should gradually lose strength over the next few days while it moves over cold water within a more stable environment. The latest NHC intensity prediction is about the same as the previous one. Douglas will likely become a remnant low on Friday while it traverses sub-24C waters. The low should dissipate in about 4 days according to the global model guidance. The depression is moving a little faster toward the northwest at about 4 kt. Low- to mid-level ridging is expected to build somewhat over the western United States during the next 48 hours, which should cause Douglas or its remnants to speed up a little bit. Model guidance is virtually unchanged from 6 hours ago, so the latest NHC track forecast is basically an update of the previous one. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 04/0300Z 20.9N 117.1W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 04/1200Z 21.4N 117.7W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 24H 05/0000Z 22.1N 118.7W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 05/1200Z 22.9N 119.9W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 06/0000Z 23.7N 121.2W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 07/0000Z 24.8N 123.2W 15 KT 15 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 08/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Blake
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US Initiates Discussion on Pig Welfare, Sustainability in South Korea
2014-07-04 02:00:00| ThePigSite - Industry News
SOUTH KOREA - The US Meat Export Federation (USMEF) is taking a proactive approach on animal welfare and sustainability in its discussion with importers in South Korea.
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Tropical Depression DOUGLAS Forecast Discussion Number 21
2014-07-03 22:32:51| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 PM PDT THU JUL 03 2014 000 WTPZ44 KNHC 032032 TCDEP4 TROPICAL DEPRESSION DOUGLAS DISCUSSION NUMBER 21 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP042014 200 PM PDT THU JUL 03 2014 Douglas's low-level center is located just to the west of a small area of deep convection. Satellite intensity estimates have decreased a bit since this morning, and a blend of the Final-T and CI numbers from TAFB, SAB, and the objective ADT support downgrading Douglas to a 30-kt depression. Continued weakening is forecast while the depression moves over increasingly cooler water and into a drier, more stable environment. Douglas is forecast to degenerate into a remnant low by 24 hours, but it could become one earlier if the deep convection diminishes soon. Dissipation is still expected by day 5. Douglas continues to creep northwestward with an initial motion of 315/2 kt. Low- to mid-level ridging is expected to build over the western United States during the next 48 hours, which should cause the remnant low to turn west-northwestward and accelerate by days 3 and 4. The model guidance is in good agreement, and no significant changes were required to the official NHC track forecast in this advisory. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 03/2100Z 20.6N 116.8W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 04/0600Z 21.0N 117.3W 25 KT 30 MPH 24H 04/1800Z 21.6N 118.1W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 05/0600Z 22.4N 119.3W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 05/1800Z 23.3N 120.6W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 06/1800Z 24.6N 122.9W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 07/1800Z 25.2N 124.9W 15 KT 15 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 08/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Berg
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Hurricane ARTHUR Forecast Discussion Number 11
2014-07-03 16:59:51| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 AM EDT THU JUL 03 2014 000 WTNT41 KNHC 031459 TCDAT1 HURRICANE ARTHUR DISCUSSION NUMBER 11 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012014 1100 AM EDT THU JUL 03 2014 Data from Air Force Reserve and NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft show that Arthur continues to strengthen this morning. The Air Force plane has reported peak 700 mb flight-level winds of 83 kt. The NOAA aircraft reported 91 kt from 8,000 ft, and both aircraft have measured surface winds of around 80 kt from the SFMR. Based on these data, the initial intensity is increased to 80 kt. Arthur is forecast to remain in low shear and move over warm water during the next 24 hours. This should allow for some additional intensification. The updated NHC intensity forecast now calls for Arthur to reach category two strength prior to its landfall or closest approach to the coast, in agreement with tightly clustered intensity guidance. After that time, Arthur will be moving over cooler waters north of the Gulf Stream, and the shear is forecast to increase as Arthur interacts with a deep-layer trough that will be moving off the east coast of the United States. Arthur is forecast to become a strong extratropical cyclone in 48 hours and should steadily weaken after that. Aircraft and radar data indicate that Arthur is moving a little faster and appears to have turned north-northeastward, although the motion over the last hour or two was northward. The hurricane should turn northeastward later today and accelerate ahead of the deep-layer trough nearing the U.S. east coast. The models are in good agreement in showing the center of Arthur grazing the North Carolina coast during the next 24 hours, however only a slight westward shift in the track would bring the strongest winds inland over eastern North Carolina. After 24 hours, the spread in the models increases some with the GFS and HWRF faster and along the western side of the guidance. The ECMWF is a bit slower and to the right. The NHC forecast leans toward the faster GFS solution, but has been adjusted a little to the east at days three through five. The forecast track brings the center of the cyclone near or over portions of Nova Scotia and Newfoundland in two to three days. Users are reminded to not focus of the exact forecast track since the associated hazards extend well away from the center. The new experimental potential storm surge flooding map is available at: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/graphics_at1.shtml?inundation FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 03/1500Z 32.4N 78.5W 80 KT 90 MPH 12H 04/0000Z 33.8N 77.3W 85 KT 100 MPH 24H 04/1200Z 36.3N 74.4W 90 KT 105 MPH 36H 05/0000Z 39.4N 70.2W 80 KT 90 MPH 48H 05/1200Z 42.7N 66.0W 70 KT 80 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 72H 06/1200Z 48.5N 58.0W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 96H 07/1200Z 55.0N 50.0W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 120H 08/1200Z 60.0N 45.0W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP $$ Forecaster Brown
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Tropical Storm DOUGLAS Forecast Discussion Number 20
2014-07-03 16:33:51| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 AM PDT THU JUL 03 2014 000 WTPZ44 KNHC 031433 TCDEP4 TROPICAL STORM DOUGLAS DISCUSSION NUMBER 20 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP042014 800 AM PDT THU JUL 03 2014 Douglas is still producing a small but compact area of deep convection. Satellite intensity estimates are straddling the tropical storm threshold, so I am opting to maintain Douglas as a tropical storm until we get a few visible satellite images and possibly an ASCAT pass later today. Regardless, cold water and dry, stable air should cause Douglas to weaken to a tropical depression soon and degenerate into a remnant low in about 24 hours. Dissipation is forecast by day 5. The initial motion is still slow...320/2 kt. A mid-level high centered just northeast of Hawaii continues to impede Douglas from making much westward progress, but this feature is expected to shift westward during the next 48 hours. At the same time, mid-level ridging will build over the western United States. Douglas is therefore expected to turn west-northwestward and accelerate after 36 hours. The updated NHC track forecast has been shifted to the right a bit and lies fairly close to the model consensus TVCE. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 03/1500Z 20.6N 116.6W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 04/0000Z 20.9N 117.0W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 04/1200Z 21.4N 117.7W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 05/0000Z 22.1N 118.7W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 05/1200Z 22.9N 120.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 06/1200Z 24.3N 122.7W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 07/1200Z 25.0N 125.0W 15 KT 15 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 08/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Berg
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