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Tropical Storm ELIDA Forecast Discussion Number 4
2014-07-01 10:48:17| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 AM PDT TUE JUL 01 2014 000 WTPZ45 KNHC 010848 TCDEP5 TROPICAL STORM ELIDA DISCUSSION NUMBER 4 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052014 200 AM PDT TUE JUL 01 2014 The cloud pattern of Elida is that of a sheared cyclone, with cold cloud tops confined to an area just south of the center. This structure is consistent with the 25 to 30 kt of northwesterly shear analyzed over the system. The initial intensity remains 45 kt based on a blend of the latest subjective and objective Dvorak estimates. Overall, the environment is expected to remain marginal for intensification for the next 2-3 days due to strong shear from the outflow of Tropical Storm Douglas to the west and an upper-level trough to the east of Elida. Most of the intensity guidance shows a weakening trend through about 72 hours, and this is reflected in the official forecast. After that time, there is the possibility for a little restrengthening as the shear decreases. The NHC intensity forecast is a little above the latest intensity consensus and is close to the SHIPS model. It appears that Elida has moved little over the past few hours, with a southward drift seen in the latest geostationary imagery. The track model guidance is in reasonable agreement in showing a slow southeastward motion during the first 36 hours of the forecast period while steering currents remain weak. After that time, a mid-level ridge will build to the north of Elida, which should induce a steadier westward motion by days 3 through 5. The NHC forecast is southeast of the previous one through 48 hours, following the latest TVCE multi-model consensus, but is generally close to the previous NHC track after that time. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 01/0900Z 17.4N 104.3W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 01/1800Z 17.4N 104.2W 45 KT 50 MPH 24H 02/0600Z 17.3N 104.0W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 02/1800Z 17.1N 103.7W 40 KT 45 MPH 48H 03/0600Z 17.1N 104.0W 35 KT 40 MPH 72H 04/0600Z 17.2N 105.5W 35 KT 40 MPH 96H 05/0600Z 17.3N 107.5W 40 KT 45 MPH 120H 06/0600Z 17.5N 110.5W 40 KT 45 MPH $$ Forecaster Brennan
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Tropical Storm DOUGLAS Forecast Discussion Number 11
2014-07-01 10:43:06| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 AM PDT TUE JUL 01 2014 000 WTPZ44 KNHC 010843 TCDEP4 TROPICAL STORM DOUGLAS DISCUSSION NUMBER 11 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP042014 200 AM PDT TUE JUL 01 2014 The cloud pattern associated with Douglas has not changed much over the past few hours, with some broken convective bands seen southeast and west of the center. A blend of the latest Dvorak estimates from TAFB and SAB and the latest UW-CIMSS ADT yields an initial intensity of 40 kt. While the shear is expected to remain low, Douglas will be moving over cool sea surface temperatures and into a more stable thermodynamic environment during the next few days. This should result in a gradual spin down of the large circulation, and Douglas is expected to weaken to a remnant low by day 4. The initial motion estimate is 315/06. As the ridge north of Douglas weakens later today, the cyclone should slow down and drift west-northwestward and westward for the next 2-3 days. After that time, the shallow cyclone will be steered more steadily westward by the trade wind flow. The new NHC track forecast is largely an update of the previous one through the forecast period. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 01/0900Z 18.8N 115.3W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 01/1800Z 19.1N 115.8W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 02/0600Z 19.4N 116.2W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 02/1800Z 19.6N 116.6W 35 KT 40 MPH 48H 03/0600Z 19.7N 117.0W 35 KT 40 MPH 72H 04/0600Z 20.0N 118.5W 30 KT 35 MPH 96H 05/0600Z 20.5N 120.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 06/0600Z 21.0N 123.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Brennan
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Tropical Depression ONE Forecast Discussion Number 1
2014-07-01 05:15:07| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 PM EDT MON JUN 30 2014 000 WTNT41 KNHC 010314 TCDAT1 TROPICAL DEPRESSION ONE DISCUSSION NUMBER 1 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012014 1100 PM EDT MON JUN 30 2014 Convection associated with the area of low pressure off the east coast of Florida has increased and become a little more organized during the past few hours. Radar data shows that the convection has developed into a band over the southeastern and southern portions of the circulation. Based on these data, advisories are being initiated on the first tropical depression of the 2014 Atlantic hurricane season. The initial intensity is set to 30 kt, which is in agreement with data from the earlier Air Force reserve reconnaissance aircraft mission. The south to southwest motion of the cyclone over the past couple of days seems to have slowed this evening. The initial motion estimate is 225/2 kt. The model guidance indicates that the depression should begin to move slowly westward tonight and early Tuesday. After that time, a building mid-level ridge over the western Atlantic will begin to steer the cyclone northwestward then northward. A large deep-layer trough that is forecast to approach the eastern United States in a couple of days, should cause the cyclone to turn northeast and accelerate. The model guidance is in good agreement on this scenario, but there is still significant uncertainty on how close the system will get to the coast of the southeastern United States. Low shear and warm sea surface temperatures along the forecast track are expected to allow gradual strengthening during the next few days. The depression is forecast to become a tropical storm on Tuesday and this is in line with all of the reliable intensity guidance. The NHC intensity forecast is close to a blend of the SHIPS/LGEM guidance. Late in the forecast period, the cyclone is forecast to interact with the aforementioned trough and become extratropical by day 5. Due to the expected close approach of the system to the coast of east-central Florida and likely strengthening during the next day or two, a tropical storm watch has been issued for portions of that area. Interests elsewhere along the coast of the southeastern United States should monitor the progress of this system. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 01/0300Z 27.6N 79.1W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 01/1200Z 27.6N 79.4W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 02/0000Z 28.0N 79.7W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 02/1200Z 28.8N 79.9W 45 KT 50 MPH 48H 03/0000Z 30.1N 79.9W 50 KT 60 MPH 72H 04/0000Z 33.0N 78.3W 60 KT 70 MPH 96H 05/0000Z 38.0N 72.0W 60 KT 70 MPH 120H 06/0000Z 43.0N 64.5W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP $$ Forecaster Brown
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Tropical Storm DOUGLAS Forecast Discussion Number 10
2014-07-01 04:55:05| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 PM PDT MON JUN 30 2014 000 WTPZ44 KNHC 010254 TCDEP4 TROPICAL STORM DOUGLAS DISCUSSION NUMBER 10 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP042014 800 PM PDT MON JUN 30 2014 Tropical Storm Douglas has developed some well-defined inner core banding features this evening, as seen in the GOES-West geostationary imagery. Correspondingly, the intensity estimates have inched upward: a blend of the TAFB and SAB Dvorak classifications averages 40 kt, the Advanced Dvorak Technique is at 43 kt, and the CIMSS AMSU technique suggests 48 kt. The initial intensity is thus set at 40 kt, but this could be slightly low. It appears that Douglas may soon be at its peak intensity, as the sea surface temperatures and convective instability start dropping steadily in about a day despite rather low vertical wind shear. The intensity guidance is tightly clustered and suggests gradual weakening after 24 h until loss of deep convection in about 3-4 days causes the system to become a remnant low. The intensity forecast is slightly above the previous advisory, mainly due to the short-term intensity trend. Douglas is moving west-northwestward at about 8 kt. The system is primarily being steered by a broad ridge to its north, which should weaken within the next day or so as a short-wave trough approaches from the west. When this occurs, the steering flow becomes almost negligible and Douglas is likely to drift slowly west-northwestward between 24 and 72 h. By days 4 and 5, the remnant low of Douglas will accelerate westward in the low-level tradewind flow. The track forecast is based upon TVCE - the variable consensus model - and is slightly north of the previous advisory. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 01/0300Z 18.4N 114.9W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 01/1200Z 19.0N 115.5W 45 KT 50 MPH 24H 02/0000Z 19.4N 116.1W 45 KT 50 MPH 36H 02/1200Z 19.6N 116.5W 40 KT 45 MPH 48H 03/0000Z 19.7N 116.8W 35 KT 40 MPH 72H 04/0000Z 20.0N 118.0W 30 KT 35 MPH 96H 05/0000Z 20.5N 120.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 06/0000Z 21.0N 123.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Landsea
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Tropical Storm ELIDA Forecast Discussion Number 3
2014-07-01 04:45:11| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 PM PDT MON JUN 30 2014 000 WTPZ45 KNHC 010244 TCDEP5 TROPICAL STORM ELIDA DISCUSSION NUMBER 3 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052014 800 PM PDT MON JUN 30 2014 Overall, the organization of the tropical cyclone has changed little during the past 6 to 12 hours. The center briefly became exposed to the northwest of the main convective mass this afternoon due to moderate to strong northwesterly shear. Since that time, a new burst of deep convection with very cold cloud tops has developed near and over the the center. The intitial intensity remains 45 kt, which is in agreement with a Dvorak T-number of 3.0 from TAFB and the earlier ASCAT data. Recent microwave images show that Elida has slowed down considerably today, and the initial motion estimate is 290/2 kt. The global model guidance indicates that Elida will remain within an area of weak steering currents during the next couple of days. During this time, the tropical storm is expected to meander just offshore of the southwestern coast of Mexico. After that, a mid- to upper-level ridge is forecast to build to the north of the cyclone, which should cause Elida to move westward at a faster forward speed. The updated NHC track forecast is similar to, but a little slower than the previous forecast during the first few days. Little change in strength is expected during the next two to three days while Elida remains within an area of moderate to strong northwesterly shear. After Elida begins moving westward later in the period, the cyclone is forecast to move into an area of lower vertical wind shear, which could allow for some slight intensification. The NHC intensity forecast is unchanged from the previous forecast and is in good agreement with a blend of the SHIPS and LGEM guidance. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 01/0300Z 17.4N 104.4W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 01/1200Z 17.5N 104.6W 45 KT 50 MPH 24H 02/0000Z 17.5N 104.8W 45 KT 50 MPH 36H 02/1200Z 17.4N 104.8W 40 KT 45 MPH 48H 03/0000Z 17.3N 104.8W 40 KT 45 MPH 72H 04/0000Z 17.1N 105.0W 40 KT 45 MPH 96H 05/0000Z 17.0N 107.3W 45 KT 50 MPH 120H 06/0000Z 17.2N 110.0W 45 KT 50 MPH $$ Forecaster Brown
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