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Tropical Storm ARTHUR Forecast Discussion Number 8
2014-07-02 22:54:28| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 PM EDT WED JUL 02 2014 000 WTNT41 KNHC 022054 TCDAT1 TROPICAL STORM ARTHUR DISCUSSION NUMBER 8 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012014 500 PM EDT WED JUL 02 2014 Both NOAA and Air Force reconnaissance planes are once again sending data from Arthur. The data suggest that the cyclone is gradually strengthening and the wind field is expanding. Satellite images indicate that the cloud pattern is becoming better organized with an eye feature surrounded by moderate convection. Based on the above information, the initial intensity has been increased to 60 knots at this time. There is still some mid-level dry air in the vicinity of Arthur that is currently limiting significant intensification. However, given an otherwise favorable environment of warm water and weak wind shear, the NHC forecast calls for Arthur to become a hurricane within the next 12 hours. Global models, primarily the ECMWF and the GFS intensify the cyclone significantly, and also expand the wind field as the center moves near the North Carolina coast. Arthur has been steered northward or 360 degrees at 6 knots, steered by a weak flow on the western side of the subtropical ridge. In about 24 hours, the cyclone will recurve and move northeastward with increasing speed as it becomes embedded within the mid-latitude southwesterly flow. Since most of the guidance has shifted a little bit to the west, the official forecast was adjusted westward, and it now brings the core of Arthur close to the coast of North Carolina. This prompted the issuance of a hurricane warning for a portion of the coast. The new experimental potential storm surge flooding map is available at: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/graphics_at1.shtml?inundation FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 02/2100Z 29.7N 79.1W 60 KT 70 MPH 12H 03/0600Z 30.7N 79.0W 65 KT 75 MPH 24H 03/1800Z 32.4N 78.2W 70 KT 80 MPH 36H 04/0600Z 34.5N 76.0W 75 KT 85 MPH 48H 04/1800Z 37.2N 72.5W 75 KT 85 MPH 72H 05/1800Z 43.5N 64.5W 60 KT 70 MPH 96H 06/1800Z 49.0N 59.0W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 120H 07/1800Z 53.0N 50.0W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP $$ Forecaster Avila
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Tropical Storm DOUGLAS Forecast Discussion Number 17
2014-07-02 22:36:44| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 PM PDT WED JUL 02 2014 000 WTPZ44 KNHC 022036 TCDEP4 TROPICAL STORM DOUGLAS DISCUSSION NUMBER 17 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP042014 200 PM PDT WED JUL 02 2014 Convection associated with Douglas is quickly losing its organization. In addition, a 1758 UTC ASCAT-B pass indicated that the maximum winds have decreased slightly, and the initial intensity is set at 35 kt for this advisory. Visible satellite images show that dry and stable air continues to infiltrate into Douglas's circulation, and along with decreasing sea surface temperatures, will contribute to additional weakening during the next couple of days. Douglas is now forecast to become a tropical depression in 12 hours and degenerate into a remnant low by 36 hours. Douglas is creeping north-northwestward with an initial motion of 330/2 kt. However, the cyclone is expected to turn back to the northwest later tonight and eventually accelerate to the west-northwest by 48 hours when mid-level ridging builds over the western United States. Low-level ridging is forecast to steer the remnant low west-northwestward to westward between days 3 and 5. The track guidance is tightly clustered on this advisory cycle, and no significant changes were required to the NHC track forecast. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 02/2100Z 20.0N 116.2W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 03/0600Z 20.2N 116.4W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 03/1800Z 20.6N 116.9W 30 KT 35 MPH 36H 04/0600Z 21.0N 117.7W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 04/1800Z 21.5N 118.8W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 05/1800Z 22.8N 121.7W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 06/1800Z 24.0N 125.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 07/1800Z 24.0N 128.0W 15 KT 15 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Berg
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Tropical Storm ARTHUR Forecast Discussion Number 7
2014-07-02 16:59:44| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 AM EDT WED JUL 02 2014 000 WTNT41 KNHC 021459 TCDAT1 TROPICAL STORM ARTHUR DISCUSSION NUMBER 7 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012014 1100 AM EDT WED JUL 02 2014 Both NOAA and Air Force reconnaissance planes were sending observations from Arthur during the past several hours. The data indicate that Arthur remains with an initial intensity of 50 knots. These strong winds are currently confined to the eastern semicircle. Although the cloud pattern on satellite is somewhat ragged, the radar presentation is fair with numerous rainbands. The presence of mid-level dry air is limiting the intensification in the short term. However, given an otherwise favorable environment of warm water and weak wind shear, all of the intensity guidance shows the cyclone becoming a hurricane in about 36 hours, and so does the official forecast. By 72 hours, Arthur will be moving into the mid-latitude westerlies, and the cyclone is forecast to lose tropical characteristics thereafter. The NHC intensity forecast is very similar to the consensus of the models. Arthur is moving northward at around 6 kt. The synoptic reasoning from the previous cycle is unchanged and Arthur will likely accelerate to the north and northeast over the next couple days. Since there has been no significant change in the track guidance, the official forecast is similar to the previous one. Given the new NHC forecast, only a tropical storm warning has been issued for the coast of North Carolina. However, any deviation to the left of the forecast track or an increase in the size of the wind field would require the issuance of a hurricane warning for all or part of the area under hurricane watch. The new experimental potential storm surge flooding map is available at: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at1+shtml/114756.shtml? inundation#contents FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 02/1500Z 29.1N 79.1W 50 KT 60 MPH 12H 03/0000Z 30.1N 78.9W 55 KT 65 MPH 24H 03/1200Z 31.5N 78.5W 60 KT 70 MPH 36H 04/0000Z 33.5N 76.8W 70 KT 80 MPH 48H 04/1200Z 36.0N 74.0W 75 KT 85 MPH 72H 05/1200Z 42.0N 66.0W 70 KT 80 MPH 96H 06/1200Z 47.0N 61.0W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 120H 07/1200Z 51.5N 53.0W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP $$ Forecaster Avila
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Post-Tropical Cyclone ELIDA Forecast Discussion Number 8
2014-07-02 10:58:41| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 AM PDT WED JUL 02 2014 000 WTPZ45 KNHC 020858 TCDEP5 POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE ELIDA DISCUSSION NUMBER 8 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052014 200 AM PDT WED JUL 02 2014 Elida has been devoid of deep convection near the center for more than 12 hours, and there currently isn't even a thunderstorm within 250 nmi of the center. Therefore, Elida is now declared a remnant low, and this is the last advisory issued by the National Hurricane Center on this system. The initial intensity is lowered to 25 kt based on a 02/0348 UTC ASCAT-B overpass, which indicated that 26-kt winds existed in the southern quadrant. The remnant low is drifting east-southeastward to southeastward at around 2 kt. The low is expected to meander offshore of the coast of southwestern Mexico today before turning westward on Thursday, and continue moving in that direction until it dissipates in a couple of days. Although the ocean is very warm and the atmosphere is quite moist, hostile northwesterly vertical wind shear of near 30 kt is expected to prevent regeneration into a tropical cyclone. For additional information on the remnant low please see High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service, under AWIPS header NFDHSFEPI and WMO header FZPN01 KWBC. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 02/0900Z 16.9N 103.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 12H 02/1800Z 16.7N 102.9W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 24H 03/0600Z 16.6N 102.9W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 03/1800Z 16.6N 103.8W 15 KT 15 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 04/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Stewart
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Tropical Storm ARTHUR Forecast Discussion Number 6
2014-07-02 10:57:43| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 AM EDT WED JUL 02 2014 000 WTNT41 KNHC 020857 TCDAT1 TROPICAL STORM ARTHUR DISCUSSION NUMBER 6 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012014 500 AM EDT WED JUL 02 2014 Despite a somewhat ragged appearance on satellite imagery, Arthur has strengthened overnight. Data from two ASCAT passes between 02 and 03 UTC showed a broad area of 45-50 kt winds east and northeast of the center. In addition, NOAA and Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft have found surface winds in the 45-50 kt range to the south and northeast of the center, while also finding the central pressure has fallen to about 996 mb. Based on all of these data, the initial intensity is set to 50 kt. Arthur is still suffering the effects of dry air aloft being entrained into the western half of the circulation, which features only limited cold cloud tops. The primary convective band is situated east and southeast of the center, and some semblance of an eye has been visible in satellite and radar imagery and was reported by the aircraft. This lopsided structure suggests that Arthur will not strengthen quickly in the short term. However, given an otherwise favorable environment of warm water and weak wind shear, all of the intensity guidance shows the cyclone becoming a hurricane in 24 to 36 hours, and so does the official forecast. By 72 hours, Arthur will be moving into a high shear environment ahead of an advancing mid/upper-level trough, which should result in weakening during the extratropical transition process. The NHC intensity forecast is close to the intensity consensus aid IVCN through the period. Arthur has begun moving steadily northward at around 5 kt. The overall track forecast reasoning remains unchanged, as the tropical cyclone should continue northward for the next 12 to 24 hours and then gradually accelerate northeastward between the aforementioned trough and a strengthening ridge to the east. The track guidance envelope has shifted back to the west a little for this cycle, and the NHC forecast has been adjusted in that direction, but now lies on the eastern edge of the guidance envelope through 48 hours. Given the new NHC forecast, hurricane and tropical storm watches have been issued for portions of the coasts of South and North Carolina. Warnings may be required for portions of these areas later today. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 02/0900Z 28.4N 79.1W 50 KT 60 MPH 12H 02/1800Z 29.3N 79.3W 55 KT 65 MPH 24H 03/0600Z 30.5N 79.1W 60 KT 70 MPH 36H 03/1800Z 32.1N 78.1W 70 KT 80 MPH 48H 04/0600Z 34.2N 76.0W 75 KT 85 MPH 72H 05/0600Z 40.0N 69.0W 75 KT 85 MPH 96H 06/0600Z 46.0N 62.0W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 120H 07/0600Z 50.0N 55.0W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP $$ Forecaster Brennan
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