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Tropical Depression FIVE-E Forecast Discussion Number 2
2013-07-04 22:47:12| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 PM PDT THU JUL 04 2013 000 WTPZ45 KNHC 042047 TCDEP5 TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 2 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052013 200 PM PDT THU JUL 04 2013 THE DEPRESSION IS GRADUALLY BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED...WITH SATELLITE PICTURES SHOWING BANDING SOUTHWEST AND NORTHWEST OF THE CENTER. AN EARLIER MICROWAVE PASS...HOWEVER...SUGGESTED THAT THE SYSTEM LACKED ANY INNER CORE FEATURES...WITH A LARGER-THAN-AVERAGE AREA OF LIGHT WINDS NEAR THE CIRCULATION CENTER. THE INTENSITY WILL STAY 30 KT ON THIS ADVISORY...ALTHOUGH THE INCREASING DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM BOTH AGENCIES SUGGEST IT WILL SOON BECOME A STORM. THE INITIAL MOTION REMAINS ABOUT THE SAME AS BEFORE...310/9. A WEAK RIDGE OVER MEXICO IS EXPECTED TO STEER THE STORM ON THIS GENERAL COURSE FOR THE DAY OR SO. THEREAFTER...MOST OF THE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT A RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES WILL BUILD SOUTHEASTWARD INTO CENTRAL MEXICO...CAUSING THE DEPRESSION TO TURN MORE TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST. ALTHOUGH THERE IS SOME GENERAL AGREEMENT ON THIS SCENARIO...EXACTLY WHEN THE DEPRESSION MAKES THAT TURN IS UNCERTAIN. MOST OF THE GUIDANCE HAS SHIFTED CLOSER TO THE MEXICAN COAST...AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS MOVED IN THAT DIRECTION. THE FORECAST CHANGE REQUIRES A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR A PORTION OF THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO...AND A WARNING COULD BE NEEDED LATER TONIGHT IF A NORTHEASTWARD ADJUSTMENT TO THE FORECAST CONTINUES. MODERATE EASTERLY SHEAR WILL PROBABLY CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...WHICH SHOULD ALLOW FOR SOME INTENSIFICATION AS LONG AS THE CENTER REMAINS FAR ENOUGH OFFSHORE. CONDITIONS COULD GET MORE FAVORABLE FOR STRENGTHENING AFTER THE CYCLONE MOVES AWAY FROM MEXICO IN A FEW DAYS...BUT THEN IT WILL BE QUICKLY APPROACHING COOLER WATER. THUS NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES ARE MADE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST...WHICH LIES BETWEEN THE INTENSITY CONSENSUS AND THE LGEM/SHIPS MODELS. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 04/2100Z 14.2N 99.2W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 05/0600Z 15.0N 100.3W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 05/1800Z 16.1N 101.8W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 06/0600Z 16.8N 103.3W 45 KT 50 MPH 48H 06/1800Z 17.7N 105.0W 45 KT 50 MPH 72H 07/1800Z 19.1N 108.0W 45 KT 50 MPH 96H 08/1800Z 20.5N 111.0W 35 KT 40 MPH 120H 09/1800Z 21.5N 115.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ FORECASTER BLAKE/BROWN
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Tropical Storm DALILA Forecast Discussion Number 21
2013-07-04 22:38:12| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 PM PDT THU JUL 04 2013 000 WTPZ44 KNHC 042038 TCDEP4 TROPICAL STORM DALILA DISCUSSION NUMBER 21 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP042013 200 PM PDT THU JUL 04 2013 ALTHOUGH A FEW THUNDERSTORMS HAVE REDEVELOPED OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN PORTION OF THE CIRCULATION THIS AFTERNOON...DALILA BARELY QUALIFIES AS A TROPICAL CYCLONE. THE INITIAL WIND SPEED IS SET AT 35 KT AND IS SUPPORTED BY RECENT ASCAT DATA AND A BLEND OF THE VARIOUS DVORAK T- AND CI-NUMBERS. DRY AIR AND MODERATE EASTERLY SHEAR ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO CAUSE THE CYCLONE TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN EVEN THOUGH IT WILL REMAIN OVER SSTS OF 26 TO 27 DEGREES CELSIUS FOR ANOTHER 24 HOURS OR SO. DALIA IS FORECAST TO DEGENERATE TO A REMNANT LOW IN ABOUT 24 HOURS...BUT THIS COULD OCCUR SOONER. DALILA IS MOVING WESTWARD AT ABOUT 6 KT. A WEST TO WEST-NORTHWEST MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THE LATEST GUIDANCE HINTS AT MORE INTERACTION BETWEEN DALIA AND THE TROPICAL DEPRESSION TO ITS SOUTHEAST. THIS IS LIKELY TO CAUSE THE POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE TO DECELERATE IN 2 TO 3 DAYS. THE UPDATED NHC TRACK FORECAST IS ONCE AGAIN SLOWER THAN THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AFTER 36 TO 48 HOURS. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 04/2100Z 17.3N 110.4W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 05/0600Z 17.3N 111.3W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 05/1800Z 17.5N 112.3W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 06/0600Z 17.8N 113.1W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 06/1800Z 18.0N 114.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 07/1800Z 18.3N 116.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 08/1800Z 18.3N 118.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 09/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER BROWN
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Tropical Storm DALILA Forecast Discussion Number 20
2013-07-04 16:55:42| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 AM PDT THU JUL 04 2013 000 WTPZ44 KNHC 041455 TCDEP4 TROPICAL STORM DALILA DISCUSSION NUMBER 20 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP042013 800 AM PDT THU JUL 04 2013 DRY AIR AND EASTERLY SHEAR HAS TAKEN ITS TOLL ON DALILA AS THE DEEP CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE STORM HAS DIMINISHED VERY QUICKLY OVERNIGHT. SUBJECTIVE AND OBJECTIVE DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES CONTINUE TO DECREASE AND THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS LOWERED TO 35 KT WHICH IS A BLEND OF THE LATEST T-NUMBERS AND EARLIER OSCAT DATA. ALTHOUGH DALILA IS FORECAST TO REMAIN OVER MARGINALLY WARM SSTS FOR ANOTHER DAY OR SO...THE DRY AIR AND SHEAR ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO WEAKEN THE CYCLONE. DALILA IS FORECAST TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW IN 36 HOURS...BUT THIS COULD OCCUR SOONER IF ORGANIZED DEEP CONVECTION DOES NOT REDEVELOP. DALILA APPEARS TO BE MOVING A LITTLE FASTER TOWARD THE WEST OR 265 DEGREES AT 6 KT. A GENERAL WESTWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. AFTER THAT TIME...A TURN TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST IS FORECAST AS THE DEEP LAYER RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF THE CYCLONE SHIFTS EASTWARD. LATER IN THE PERIOD...SOME OF THE GLOBAL MODELS SUGGEST THAT DALILA OR ITS REMNANTS COULD INTERACT WITH THE NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE TO THE SOUTHEAST. BECAUSE OF THIS POSSIBILITY... THE TRACK DURING THE POST-TROPICAL PHASE IS A LITTLE SLOWER THAN THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 04/1500Z 17.4N 109.8W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 05/0000Z 17.3N 110.7W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 05/1200Z 17.4N 111.8W 25 KT 30 MPH 36H 06/0000Z 17.7N 113.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 06/1200Z 18.0N 114.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 07/1200Z 18.5N 116.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 08/1200Z 18.8N 118.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 09/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER BROWN
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Tropical Depression FIVE-E Forecast Discussion Number 1
2013-07-04 16:55:11| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 AM PDT THU JUL 04 2013 000 WTPZ45 KNHC 041455 TCDEP5 TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 1 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052013 800 AM PDT THU JUL 04 2013 SATELLITE AND MICROWAVE DATA INDICATE THAT THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE SOUTH OF MEXICO NOW HAS A WELL-DEFINED CENTER AND ENOUGH ORGANIZED DEEP CONVECTION TO BE CONSIDERED A TROPICAL CYCLONE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET TO 30 KT...IN AGREEMENT WITH THE TAFB DVORAK ESTIMATE AND AN EARLIER OSCAT PASS. MODERATE-TO-STRONG EASTERLY SHEAR IS FORECAST TO AFFECT THE DEPRESSION FOR THE NEXT DAY OR SO...WHICH WILL PROBABLY NOT ALLOW FOR MUCH INTENSIFICATION. A LITTLE MORE STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE AFTER THAT TIME WHEN THE SHEAR IS FORECAST TO RELAX A BIT WHILE THE SYSTEM REMAINS OVER WARM WATER. ALMOST ALL OF THE GUIDANCE SHOW THAT THE SHEAR WILL REMAIN AT LEAST MODERATE...LIKELY INHIBITING ANY RAPID INTENSIFICATION. THE BULK OF THE GUIDANCE SHOW THE DEPRESSION BECOMING A MID-RANGE TROPICAL STORM IN A FEW DAYS... AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST FOLLOWS SUIT...A BIT HIGHER THAN THE INTENSITY CONSENSUS. THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 305/9. MOST OF THE GLOBAL MODELS SHOW ENOUGH RIDGING OVER MEXICO TO KEEP THE DEPRESSION OFFSHORE. THE RIDGE IS FORECAST TO BUILD IN A DAY OR TWO...WHICH SHOULD CAUSE A MORE WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION AT THAT TIME. EXCEPT FOR THE THE GFDL AND ITS ENSEMBLE...WHICH BRING THE STORM CLOSER TO MEXICO... MOST OF THE GUIDANCE IS IN AGREEMENT ON THIS SCENARIO. THE NHC FORECAST IS VERY CLOSE TO THE DYNAMICAL MODEL CONSENSUS...WHICH HAS BEEN A TOP PERFORMER THIS SEASON. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 04/1500Z 13.4N 98.4W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 05/0000Z 14.3N 99.7W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 05/1200Z 15.3N 101.2W 35 KT 40 MPH 36H 06/0000Z 16.1N 102.7W 40 KT 45 MPH 48H 06/1200Z 16.6N 104.2W 45 KT 50 MPH 72H 07/1200Z 17.7N 107.0W 50 KT 60 MPH 96H 08/1200Z 18.9N 110.0W 40 KT 45 MPH 120H 09/1200Z 19.5N 113.5W 35 KT 40 MPH $$ FORECASTER BLAKE
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Tropical Storm DALILA Forecast Discussion Number 19
2013-07-04 10:32:09| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 AM PDT THU JUL 04 2013 000 WTPZ44 KNHC 040832 TCDEP4 TROPICAL STORM DALILA DISCUSSION NUMBER 19 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP042013 200 AM PDT THU JUL 04 2013 DALILA CONTINUES TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN DUE TO ONGOING MODERATE EASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT...WITH THE CENTER NOW ON THE EASTERN EDGE OF THE REMAINING CONVECTION. BASED MAINLY ON CONTINUITY FROM THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS REDUCED TO AN UNCERTAIN 45 KT. THE INITIAL MOTION IS NOW 265/4. A LOW/MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF THE CYCLONE SHOULD STEER DALILA GENERALLY WESTWARD FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...AND THE NEW FORECAST TRACK FOLLOWS THIS SCENARIO VERY CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. SOME OF THE GLOBAL MODELS SUGGEST AN ALTERNATIVE SCENARIO...THAT DALILA OR ITS REMNANTS COULD INTERACT WITH THE TROPICAL DISTURBANCE APPROACHING FROM THE SOUTHEAST. SHOULD THIS INTERACTION OCCUR...DALILA COULD MOVE MORE TOWARD THE SOUTHWEST THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST. THE CURRENT SHEAR AND DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD...CAUSING DALILA TO STEADILY WEAKEN. IN ADDITION...THE CYCLONE IS FORECAST TO MOVE OVER COLDER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES AFTER 48 HOURS. THE NEW INTENSITY FORECAST CALLS FOR DALILA TO WEAKEN TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION IN ABOUT 36 HOURS...AND TO DEGENERATE TO A REMNANT LOW IN ABOUT 72 HOURS. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT BOTH OF THESE EVENTS COULD OCCUR EARLIER THAN FORECAST. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 04/0900Z 17.5N 108.9W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 04/1800Z 17.4N 109.8W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 05/0600Z 17.4N 110.9W 35 KT 40 MPH 36H 05/1800Z 17.5N 111.9W 30 KT 35 MPH 48H 06/0600Z 17.9N 113.1W 30 KT 35 MPH 72H 07/0600Z 18.5N 115.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 08/0600Z 19.0N 118.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 09/0600Z 19.0N 122.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ FORECASTER BEVEN
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