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Tropical Depression Twenty-One-E Forecast Discussion Number 4

2019-11-17 03:31:20| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 900 PM CST Sat Nov 16 2019 000 WTPZ41 KNHC 170231 TCDEP1 Tropical Depression Twenty-One-E Discussion Number 4 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP212019 900 PM CST Sat Nov 16 2019 The depression has changed little during the last several hours. The cyclone remains weak with its deep convection confined to a small area near the estimated center. The initial intensity remains 30 kt for this advisory, which is in agreement with the latest Dvorak classification from TAFB and automated values from CIMSS at the University of Wisconsin. The intensity models are unanimous in showing the depression either holding its strength or weakening during the next couple of days. Although the environmental wind shear is not anticipated to be strong, intrusions of dry air, in part associated with stable air moving through the Gulf of Tehuantepec, should prevent the cyclone from intensifying. The NHC forecast continues to show dissipation by day 3, following the global model guidance, but it would not be surprising if it dissipated or became a remnant low sooner than that. Satellite fixes suggest that the depression is moving westward at about 12 kt steered by a low- to mid-level ridge to its northeast. A slower west-northwest motion is expected during the next few days until the cyclone dissipates. The NHC track forecast is adjusted a little to the north of the previous one, trending toward the latest consensus models. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 17/0300Z 9.8N 102.4W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 17/1200Z 10.1N 103.6W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 18/0000Z 10.5N 104.8W 30 KT 35 MPH 36H 18/1200Z 10.8N 105.7W 30 KT 35 MPH 48H 19/0000Z 11.2N 106.8W 30 KT 35 MPH 72H 20/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Cangialosi

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Tropical Storm Raymond Forecast Discussion Number 8

2019-11-16 21:36:13| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 200 PM MST Sat Nov 16 2019 494 WTPZ45 KNHC 162036 TCDEP5 Tropical Storm Raymond Discussion Number 8 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP202019 200 PM MST Sat Nov 16 2019 The could pattern has deteriorated this afternoon, and the circulation is still there, but becoming elongated. In fact, the convection no longer shows a cyclonic curvature and it has the appearance of a linear cloud band. Dvorak estimates also reflect some weakening, and on this basis, the initial intensity has been set at 40 kt. The shear is forecast to markedly increase soon as a mid-level trough or low develops just west of the Baja california peninsula. This belligerent shear pattern calls for weakening, and Raymond is forecast to become a tropical depression or even degenerate into a remnant near low by time the cyclone reaches the southern portion of the Baja California peninsula in about 36 hours. The system then should become absorbed by the developing mid-to upper level trough. The weakening is depicted by global models which clearly show the vertical fracture of the cyclone with the mid-level center moving northeastward over mainland Mexico and the weakening low-level center moving north-northwestward just west of the Peninsula. Raymond has been moving little or drifting northward during the past several hours. However, most of the track guidance indicate that Raymond should move northward with an increase in forward speed embedded within the southerly flow ahead of the mid-level trough west of the Baja California peninsula. The later portion of the track forecast is highly uncertain given that the cyclone will be very weak or probably dissipating. Regardless of Raymond's status when it nears the Baja peninsula, rainfall associated with the cyclone and the developing trough will likely spread northward into southern portions of the Baja California peninsula later this weekend. These rains could cause life-threatening flash flooding. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 16/2100Z 16.5N 111.8W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 17/0600Z 18.2N 111.7W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 17/1800Z 20.5N 111.1W 35 KT 40 MPH 36H 18/0600Z 22.5N 111.3W 30 KT 35 MPH 48H 18/1800Z 25.0N 112.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 19/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Avila

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Tropical Depression Twenty-one-E Forecast Discussion Number 3

2019-11-16 21:32:13| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 300 PM CST Sat Nov 16 2019 253 WTPZ41 KNHC 162032 TCDEP1 Tropical Depression Twenty-One-E Discussion Number 3 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP212019 300 PM CST Sat Nov 16 2019 The depression has really come unglued over the past 6 hours. Deep convection has decreased dramatically and the little thunderstorm activity that remains is not well organized. Visible imagery reveals that the circulation of the low is elongated from east to west with no clear-cut center. An ASCAT-B overpass at 1604 UTC unfortunately did not sample the entire system, however, it too showed little indication of a well-defined center and max winds of only 25-30 kt. Those winds appeared to be related more to an ongoing Tehuantepec gap wind event than the depression itself. While these evidence would suggest that the system no longer meets the criteria for a tropical cyclone, it seems prudent to continue advisories for now, just in case the system makes a comeback later today. The depression continues to move westward, and a mid-level ridge centered over Mexico should keep it or its remnants on a westward or west-northwestward heading for the next few days. Aside from accounting for a slight westward adjustment of the initial position, the main change to the NHC forecast since the last advisory is that it no longer calls for the depression to become a tropical storm, and dissipation is now anticipated within 72 h. This is in line with the latest intensity guidance. Given the cyclone's current structure, it could become a remnant low or dissipate at any time during the next few days. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 16/2100Z 9.5N 101.0W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 17/0600Z 9.6N 102.9W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 17/1800Z 10.0N 104.2W 30 KT 35 MPH 36H 18/0600Z 10.3N 105.2W 30 KT 35 MPH 48H 18/1800Z 10.5N 106.3W 30 KT 35 MPH 72H 19/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Zelinsky

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Tropical Depression Twenty-One-E Forecast Discussion Number 2

2019-11-16 15:34:09| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 900 AM CST Sat Nov 16 2019 000 WTPZ41 KNHC 161434 TCDEP1 Tropical Depression Twenty-One-E Discussion Number 2 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP212019 900 AM CST Sat Nov 16 2019 A pair of recent SSMIS overpasses revealed that the depression has not become any better organized this morning with little evidence of curvature in its convective bands. That said, the system is still producing plenty of convection, particularly to the north of its center. Earlier ASCAT data suggested that the system may already have 35 kt winds, but it was flagged as questionable due to rain contamination. Dvorak classifications from TAFB and SAB do not yet support tropical storm strength and the intensity assessment remains 30 kt, perhaps conservatively so. It has been difficult to identify the precise location of the depression's center, even in first-light visible imagery. The initial motion is consequently highly uncertain, but it appears that the system is still moving generally westward at around 10 kt. A mid-level ridge centered over central Mexico should keep the cyclone heading westward at a slower speed during the next few days. The track guidance remains in good agreement and the NHC track forecast is essentially just an update of the previous advisory. The depression is located within a seemingly favorable environment for strengthening consisting of low shear, warm SSTs and sufficient moisture. And yet, none of the dynamical models call for the system to reach tropical-storm-strength. Early next week, dry air could become an inhibiting factor if it wraps into the cyclone's circulation, and this is forecast to occur by some of the global models. Some short-term strengthening still seems likely given the favorable environment so no change was made to the official intensity forecast, which is above all of the guidance for the first 24 h. It lies between the lower dynamical guidance and higher DSHP model thereafter. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 16/1500Z 9.2N 100.2W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 17/0000Z 9.2N 101.6W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 17/1200Z 9.4N 102.9W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 18/0000Z 9.6N 103.9W 35 KT 40 MPH 48H 18/1200Z 9.9N 104.8W 35 KT 40 MPH 72H 19/1200Z 10.3N 107.1W 30 KT 35 MPH 96H 20/1200Z 10.5N 110.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 21/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Zelinsky

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Tropical Storm Raymond Forecast Discussion Number 7

2019-11-16 15:32:35| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 800 AM MST Sat Nov 16 2019 779 WTPZ45 KNHC 161432 TCDEP5 Tropical Storm Raymond Discussion Number 7 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP202019 800 AM MST Sat Nov 16 2019 Raymond is a sheared cyclone with the low-level center located on the western edge of the convection as indicated by microwave data. Although the cloud pattern has become less organized since yesterday, Dvorak estimates from TAFB and SAB still support an initial intensity of 45 kt. It appears that Raymond has already peaked in intensity, and given that the shear over the cyclone will increase significantly, the NHC forecast calls for weakening. Raymond is forecast to be a tropical depression or even a remnant near low by time the cyclone reaches the southern portion of the Baja California in about 36 hours. In about 2 or 3 days, Raymond or its remnants are expected to be absorbed by a developing mid-to upper level trough just west of the peninsula. Raymond appears to be moving toward the north or 355 degrees at 8 kt. Soon, the cyclone will be embedded within the southerly flow ahead of the developing trough or low mentioned above. This flow pattern should steer Raymond on a general northward track until it becomes a shallow cyclone. After that time, it should move move toward the north-northwest with the low-level flow. The later portion of the track forecast is highly uncertain given that the cyclone will be very weak or probably dissipating. Regardless of Raymond's status when it nears the Baja peninsula, rainfall associated with the cyclone and the developing trough will likely spread northward into southern portions of the Baja California peninsula later this weekend. These rains could cause life-threatening flash flooding. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 16/1500Z 16.5N 111.7W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 17/0000Z 17.8N 111.7W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 17/1200Z 20.0N 111.1W 35 KT 40 MPH 36H 18/0000Z 22.2N 110.6W 30 KT 35 MPH 48H 18/1200Z 24.5N 111.5W 25 KT 30 MPH 72H 19/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Avila

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