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Remnants of Twenty-one-E Forecast Discussion Number 11

2019-11-18 21:53:20| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 200 PM MST Mon Nov 18 2019 000 WTPZ41 KNHC 182053 TCDEP1 Remnants Of Twenty-One-E Discussion Number 11 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP212019 200 PM MST Mon Nov 18 2019 A recent ASCAT-A scatterometer overpass indicates that the depression no longer has a well-defined center and has degenerated into a surface trough. In addition, the maximum winds near the the trough are only about 20 kt, with a few possibly rain contaminated 25-kt vectors found in convection well to the northeast of the system. The trough is expected to move west at about 6 kt for the next several days, steered by the low-level trade winds. This is the last NHC advisory on this system. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 18/2100Z 12.4N 106.1W 20 KT 25 MPH...REMNANTS 12H 19/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Latto

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Tropical Depression Twenty-one-E Forecast Discussion Number 10

2019-11-18 15:46:12| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 900 AM CST Mon Nov 18 2019 000 WTPZ41 KNHC 181445 CCA TCDEP1 Tropical Depression Twenty-One-E Discussion Number 10...Corrected NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP212019 900 AM CST Mon Nov 18 2019 Corrected to remove location and intensity at 48 hours The deep convection increased this morning near the estimated location of the low level center, and this increase is most likely associated with the diurnal maximum. Subjective Dvorak intensity estimates from TAFB and SAB support winds of 25 knots, which will be the initial advisory intensity. The NHC forecast shows the system becoming a remnant low by 24 hours. All of the available intensity guidance supports this scenario, and the latest forecast is a just continuation of the previous one. Since the cyclone has such a weak tangential wind field, however, it could open into a trough at any time. The center has been difficult to track in infrared imagery this morning, and therefore the initial motion is a somewhat uncertain 280/5 kt. There is no change to the forecast track reasoning. The mid-level ridge to the cyclone's north will continue to steer it slowly to the west until dissipation. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 18/1500Z 12.3N 105.5W 25 KT 30 MPH 12H 19/0000Z 12.4N 106.3W 20 KT 25 MPH 24H 19/1200Z 12.5N 107.3W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 20/0000Z 12.5N 108.6W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 20/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Latto/Mello

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Tropical Depression Twenty-One-E Forecast Discussion Number 9

2019-11-18 09:33:08| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 300 AM CST Mon Nov 18 2019 000 WTPZ41 KNHC 180833 TCDEP1 Tropical Depression Twenty-One-E Discussion Number 9 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP212019 300 AM CST Mon Nov 18 2019 Organized deep convection had been sparse for a few hours, but some cold cloud tops have recently developed near the estimated center location. Infrared imagery shows a much larger area of deep convection farther to the north and northeast, but this feature lacks curvature and doesn't seem to be directly associated with the depression's circulation. A partial ASCAT-A pass around 0315Z showed only 15-20 kt winds to the east of the center, but the initial intensity is being held, perhaps generously, at 25 kt since the entire circulation was not sampled. The NHC forecast shows the system becoming a remnant low by 24 hours, and while the global models show the circulation dissipating by 72 h, it wouldn't be surprising if this happened much sooner. The center has been difficult to track in infrared imagery, but based on the earlier scatterometer data and the latest satellite fixes, the initial motion estimate is 305/06. The system should be steered generally westward from now until dissipation by a weak low-level ridge to the north. The new NHC forecast lies near the north edge of the guidance envelope close to HCCA and the GFS. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 18/0900Z 12.2N 105.0W 25 KT 30 MPH 12H 18/1800Z 12.3N 105.8W 25 KT 30 MPH 24H 19/0600Z 12.4N 106.6W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 19/1800Z 12.5N 107.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 20/0600Z 12.5N 108.8W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 21/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Brennan

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Tropical Depression Twenty-One-E Forecast Discussion Number 8

2019-11-18 03:35:37| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 900 PM CST Sun Nov 17 2019 000 WTPZ41 KNHC 180235 TCDEP1 Tropical Depression Twenty-One-E Discussion Number 8 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP212019 900 PM CST Sun Nov 17 2019 The depression is barely hanging on as a tropical cyclone. Satellite images indicate that the depression still has a closed circulation and patches of deep convection mainly on its north side. The initial intensity remains 25 kt for this advisory based on T1.5/25 kt Dvorak classifications from TAFB and SAB. The GFS and ECMWF models suggest that the depression could continue to produce a modest amount of deep convection on Monday before it moves into an environment of increasing southwesterly wind shear. The NHC forecast shows the cyclone becoming a remnant low by 24 hours, but it could reach this status sooner given how weak the system is. All of the global models shows the cyclone degenerating into a trough by day 3, and the NHC forecast follows that scenario. The center of the depression appears to have reformed a little to the north of what we have been tracking. A long-term motion of the system is 300/9 kt. A low- to mid-level ridge situated to the northeast of the depression should steer it west-northwestward at a slower pace until it dissipates in a few days. The NHC track forecast has been adjusted to the north of the previous one mostly due to the initial position being farther north than expected. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 18/0300Z 11.9N 104.6W 25 KT 30 MPH 12H 18/1200Z 12.1N 105.4W 25 KT 30 MPH 24H 19/0000Z 12.3N 106.4W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 19/1200Z 12.5N 107.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 20/0000Z 12.8N 109.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 21/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Cangialosi

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Tropical Depression Twenty-one-E Forecast Discussion Number 7

2019-11-17 21:31:33| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 300 PM CST Sun Nov 17 2019 000 WTPZ41 KNHC 172031 TCDEP1 Tropical Depression Twenty-One-E Discussion Number 7 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP212019 300 PM CST Sun Nov 17 2019 The depression is poorly organized and is barely holding on as a tropical cyclone. A late arriving ASCAT-C overpass indicates that the circulation is not as well-defined as previously thought. In addition, convection that had developed earlier this morning near the center is now weakening, with additional convection developing well to its north. The initial advisory intensity is being held at 25 kt, since the scatterometer sampled maximum winds of a little more than 20 kt. All available intensity guidance unanimously weakens the depression over the next couple of days, despite relatively low shear, a fair amount of moisture, and warm sea surface temperatures in its path. This is possibly due to the fact that the depression remains embedded in the Intertropical Convergence Zone, and may never break out of this zone before it opens into a trough. The official forecast is unchanged from the previous one, and the depression is expected to no longer be a tropical cyclone in 36 hours, if not sooner. The depression is moving west-northwestward at a little faster pace of 8 kt. There is no change to the track forecast reasoning. A mid-level ridge to the north of the system should continue to steer the depression or its remnants generally west-northwestward until dissipation occurs. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 17/2100Z 11.1N 103.9W 25 KT 30 MPH 12H 18/0600Z 11.5N 104.9W 25 KT 30 MPH 24H 18/1800Z 11.7N 105.9W 25 KT 30 MPH 36H 19/0600Z 11.9N 107.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 19/1800Z 12.1N 108.1W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 20/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Latto

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