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Tropical Depression Twenty-One-E Forecast Discussion Number 6

2019-11-17 15:33:59| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 900 AM CST Sun Nov 17 2019 000 WTPZ41 KNHC 171433 TCDEP1 Tropical Depression Twenty-One-E Discussion Number 6 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP212019 900 AM CST Sun Nov 17 2019 Convection has redeveloped near the center of circulation over the past several hours, but this convection appears ragged in satellite imagery. Despite the inability for the depression to maintain organized deep convection for much of last night, recent microwave data indicates that the circulation remains well-defined. The latest subjective Dvorak classification from TAFB suggests the intensity remains 25 kt, which will be the advisory initial intensity. Despite relatively low shear, a fair amount of moisture, and warm sea surface temperatures in the path of the depression, the model guidance unanimously either dissipate the system or make it a remnant low within a couple of days. This could be due to the fact that the depression remains embedded in the Intertropical Convergence Zone, and may never break out of this zone before it opens into a trough. The official forecast is unchanged from the previous one and shows no further strengthening. This is in agreement with the model guidance, and the depression is forecast to no longer be a tropical cyclone by 36 hours. The depression is moving west-northwestward at about 6 kt. There is no change to the track forecast reasoning. A mid-level ridge to the north of the system should continue to steer the depression or its remnants west-northwestward until dissipation occurs. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 17/1500Z 10.5N 102.8W 25 KT 30 MPH 12H 18/0000Z 10.9N 103.7W 25 KT 30 MPH 24H 18/1200Z 11.2N 104.8W 25 KT 30 MPH 36H 19/0000Z 11.4N 105.9W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 19/1200Z 11.7N 106.9W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 20/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Latto

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Post-Tropical Cyclone Raymond Forecast Discussion Number 11

2019-11-17 15:32:57| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 800 AM MST Sun Nov 17 2019 000 WTPZ45 KNHC 171432 TCDEP5 Post-Tropical Cyclone Raymond Discussion Number 11 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP202019 800 AM MST Sun Nov 17 2019 Raymond has degenerated into a remnant low with 25-kt winds. Satellite images indicate that the circulation is elongated and that the thunderstorm activity is well removed from the area of minimum pressure due to very strong wind shear. In addition, observations from the Mexican Navy automatic station at Isla Socorro which is located near Raymond indicate that winds are between 15 and 20 kt. The low is moving northward around 14 kt, but this motion is uncertain since the circulation is elongated and poorly defined. Raymond's remnants are expected to move northward and then north-northwestward and eventually become absorbed by a large developing trough west of the Baja California peninsula in about 24 to 36 hours. The combination of the remnants of Raymond and the developing trough west of the peninsula will bring heavy rains into southern portions of the Baja California peninsula over the next day or two. These rains could cause life-threatening flash flooding. This is the last NHC advisory on Raymond. For additional information about the remnant low, please see High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service under AWIPS header NFDHSFEPI, WMO header FZPN02 KWBC, and on the web at ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFEPI.php FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 17/1500Z 19.1N 111.1W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 12H 18/0000Z 21.0N 111.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 24H 18/1200Z 23.5N 112.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 19/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Avila

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Tropical Depression Twenty-One-E Forecast Discussion Number 5

2019-11-17 09:39:51| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 300 AM CST Sun Nov 17 2019 000 WTPZ41 KNHC 170839 TCDEP1 Tropical Depression Twenty-One-E Discussion Number 5 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP212019 300 AM CST Sun Nov 17 2019 The depression remains poorly organized this morning as intrusions of dry air have caused the area of thunderstorms that was previously near the estimated center to dissipate. New clusters of convection have recently developed but they lack organization. A couple of ASCAT passes suggest that the overall circulation is less defined than it was 24 hours ago, however, the passes missed the estimated center making it difficult to determine whether a well-defined center still exists. Given the current overall lack of organization, the initial intensity has been reduced to 25 kt. Although the vertical wind shear is forecast to remain low over the system, continued intrusions of dry air associated with a Gulf of Tehuantepec gap wind event are likely to prevent significant re-organization of the deep convection, and strengthening is not anticipated. The NHC forecast again calls for no change in wind speed, however, the system could dissipate or become a remnant low much sooner than indicated below. The depression is moving west-northwestward at about 7 kt. There has been no change to the track forecast reasoning. A mid-level ridge to the north of the system should continue to steer the depression or its remnants west-northwestward until dissipation occurs. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 17/0900Z 10.0N 102.2W 25 KT 30 MPH 12H 17/1800Z 10.3N 103.2W 25 KT 30 MPH 24H 18/0600Z 10.6N 104.3W 25 KT 30 MPH 36H 18/1800Z 10.9N 105.3W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 19/0600Z 11.2N 106.2W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 20/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Brown

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Tropical Depression Raymond Forecast Discussion Number 10

2019-11-17 09:38:23| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 200 AM MST Sun Nov 17 2019 000 WTPZ45 KNHC 170838 TCDEP5 Tropical Depression Raymond Discussion Number 10 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP202019 200 AM MST Sun Nov 17 2019 Although Raymond continues to produce clusters of deep convection to the east and northeast of its center, the convection is not well organized and there is no evidence of banding features. A recent ASCAT-C overpass indicated that the circulation has become elongated from north to south and that the maximum winds have decreased to around 30 kt. Based on these data, the initial wind speed has been lowered to 30 kt. Southwesterly vertical wind shear has already increased over the cyclone and the shear is expected to become quite strong within the next 24 hours. As a result, weakening is anticipated and Raymond is likely to become a remnant low later today or tonight. The circulation is forecast to dissipate in 36 to 48 hours when it moves near Baja California. Raymond is now moving northward around 8 kt. A deep-layer trough near and west of the northern Baja California peninsula should steer Raymond northward to north-northeastward at a faster forward speed today. After that time, Raymond or its remnants are forecast to turn north-northwestward to northwestward as it is absorbed into the aforementioned trough. Regardless of Raymond's status when it nears the Baja peninsula, rainfall associated with the cyclone and the developing trough will likely spread northward into southern portions of the Baja California peninsula over the next day or two. These rains could cause life-threatening flash flooding. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 17/0900Z 17.5N 111.6W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 17/1800Z 19.6N 111.2W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 18/0600Z 21.6N 111.1W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 18/1800Z 24.2N 111.8W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 19/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Brown

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Tropical Storm Raymond Forecast Discussion Number 9

2019-11-17 03:34:46| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 800 PM MST Sat Nov 16 2019 000 WTPZ45 KNHC 170234 TCDEP5 Tropical Storm Raymond Discussion Number 9 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP202019 800 PM MST Sat Nov 16 2019 Raymond's cloud pattern has continued to lose organization since the last advisory, with the remaining convection now occurring in a ragged band to the east of the center. The initial intensity has been reduced to 35 kt based on a blend of objective and subjective Dvorak intensity estimates. The initial motion is a somewhat uncertain 330/5. A developing mid-latitude deep-layer trough near and west of the northern Baja California peninsula is becoming the main steering influence for Raymond, and this feature should cause the tropical cyclone to turn northward and accelerate during the next 12-24 h. After that, Raymond or its remnants should turn north-northwestward to northwestward as it becomes absorbed into the mid-latitude system. Southwesterly vertical shear is increasing over the tropical cyclone, and it should increase further during the next couple of days. Thus, continued weakening is forecast, and Raymond is now expected to become a depression in 18-24 h, a remnant low by 36 h, and dissipate completely after 48 h. If organized convection does not return to the cyclone, all of these events could occur earlier than currently forecast. Regardless of Raymond's status when it nears the Baja peninsula, rainfall associated with the cyclone and the developing trough will likely spread northward into southern portions of the Baja California peninsula later this weekend. These rains could cause life-threatening flash flooding. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 17/0300Z 16.9N 112.1W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 17/1200Z 18.7N 111.7W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 18/0000Z 21.0N 111.4W 30 KT 35 MPH 36H 18/1200Z 23.7N 111.9W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 19/0000Z 26.1N 113.9W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 20/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Beven

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