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Tropical Depression Mario Forecast Discussion Number 21

2019-09-22 16:44:39| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 900 AM MDT Sun Sep 22 2019 000 WTPZ44 KNHC 221444 TCDEP4 Tropical Depression Mario Discussion Number 21 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP142019 900 AM MDT Sun Sep 22 2019 After being devoid of deep convection since yesterday, a couple of thunderstorms have formed just to the southwest of the cyclone's center. Although this barely qualifies the system to retain tropical cyclone status, advisories are being continued for the time being. However, Mario should degenerate into a remnant low in 12 hours or so. The weakening low is expected to turn northward and move over the Baja California peninsula on Tuesday, and dissipate later that day. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 22/1500Z 22.0N 111.9W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 23/0000Z 23.3N 112.7W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 24H 23/1200Z 24.8N 113.7W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 24/0000Z 26.3N 114.1W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 24/1200Z 27.9N 113.6W 15 KT 15 MPH...INLAND 72H 25/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Pasch

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Tropical Storm Jerry Forecast Discussion Number 21

2019-09-22 16:43:08| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 1100 AM AST Sun Sep 22 2019 000 WTNT45 KNHC 221443 TCDAT5 Tropical Storm Jerry Discussion Number 21 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL102019 1100 AM AST Sun Sep 22 2019 Jerry is not well organized on satellite images, with a ragged-looking CDO and limited banding features over the eastern semicircle. Reports from an Air Force Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate a slight fall in central pressure but the maximum winds remain near 55 kt. The storm is under the influence of westerly shear, and the numerical guidance does not indicated that this shear will relax during the forecast period. Therefore, only slight strengthening is allowed for in the official forecast. This is a little above most of the model guidance. Jerry continues to move north-northwestward, or 340/9 kt, through a weakness in the subtropical ridge. A mid-tropospheric trough moving off the northeast U.S. coast in a couple of days should cause the cyclone to turn north-northeastward to northeastward with some acceleration later in the forecast period. The official track forecast is close to the previous one and is also similar to the corrected consensus model guidance. Key Messages: 1. The risk of tropical-storm-force winds on Bermuda is increasing, with Jerry forecast to pass near the island Tuesday and Wednesday. It is too soon to determine what impacts the system may have on Bermuda, but interests there should monitor the progress of Jerry. A Tropical Storm Watch could be issued later today for Bermuda. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 22/1500Z 25.7N 66.6W 55 KT 65 MPH 12H 23/0000Z 26.9N 67.3W 55 KT 65 MPH 24H 23/1200Z 28.2N 67.7W 60 KT 70 MPH 36H 24/0000Z 29.5N 67.9W 60 KT 70 MPH 48H 24/1200Z 31.0N 68.0W 60 KT 70 MPH 72H 25/1200Z 35.0N 63.5W 55 KT 65 MPH 96H 26/1200Z 40.0N 54.5W 50 KT 60 MPH 120H 27/1200Z 45.0N 45.0W 45 KT 50 MPH $$ Forecaster Pasch

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Post-Tropical Cyclone Lorena Forecast Discussion Number 21

2019-09-22 16:32:15| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 900 AM MDT Sun Sep 22 2019 000 WTPZ45 KNHC 221432 TCDEP5 Post-Tropical Cyclone Lorena Discussion Number 21 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP152019 900 AM MDT Sun Sep 22 2019 The poorly defined center of what is left of Lorena crossed the coast of northwestern Mexico this morning to the northwest of Guaymas. The system has degenerated into a broad area of low pressure accompanied by a few showers. The low is expected to move farther inland and dissipate tonight or early Monday. This is the last advisory issued by the National Hurricane Center on this system. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 22/1500Z 28.8N 111.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 12H 23/0000Z 30.0N 111.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 24H 23/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Avila

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Tropical Storm Jerry Forecast Discussion Number 20

2019-09-22 11:01:09| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 500 AM AST Sun Sep 22 2019 000 WTNT45 KNHC 220901 TCDAT5 Tropical Storm Jerry Discussion Number 20 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL102019 500 AM AST Sun Sep 22 2019 A very large burst of deep convection has formed near Jerry, but there is no sign from recent microwave data that it is causing any significant change in structure. The center still appears to be on the northwestern edge of the deep convection, which is consistent with a tropical cyclone undergoing moderate-to-strong northwesterly shear. The initial wind speed is held at 55 kt, a bit above the ASCAT pass from several hours ago, but at that time the center was exposed, so it is reasonable to think the system is a bit stronger than shown in that pass. An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft should investigate the system around 1200 UTC. Overall, there are a lot of mixed signals with the future strength of Jerry. While the storm should remain over very warm waters, any relaxation of the current shear isn't expected to last very long, and the consensus of the models is that an expected mid-latitude trough interaction should lead to much weakening or strengthening. Thus, little change in strength is shown throughout the period, similar to the last forecast, and only slight weakening is shown at long range as Jerry undergoes the first stages of extratropical transition. The initial motion is slower to the north-northwest, 330/10 kt. The biggest change from the past advisory is shifting the forecast track westward about half a degree in about 48 hours, with more of the models showing that the aforementioned trough interaction will steer the storm more to the left. Jerry should then accelelerate to the northeast ahead of the next mid-latitude trough, and the forecast track is a little faster at long range. Key Messages: 1. The risk of tropical-storm-force winds on Bermuda is increasing, with Jerry forecast to pass near the island Tuesday and Wednesday. It is too soon to determine what impacts the system may have on Bermuda, but interests there should monitor the progress of Jerry. A Tropical Storm Watch could be issued later today for Bermuda. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 22/0900Z 25.0N 66.9W 55 KT 65 MPH 12H 22/1800Z 26.3N 67.6W 55 KT 65 MPH 24H 23/0600Z 27.6N 68.0W 60 KT 70 MPH 36H 23/1800Z 29.0N 68.3W 60 KT 70 MPH 48H 24/0600Z 30.4N 68.6W 55 KT 65 MPH 72H 25/0600Z 34.0N 65.5W 55 KT 65 MPH 96H 26/0600Z 39.0N 57.0W 50 KT 60 MPH 120H 27/0600Z 43.0N 47.0W 45 KT 50 MPH $$ Forecaster Blake

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Tropical Storm Karen Forecast Discussion Number 1

2019-09-22 11:00:17| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 500 AM AST Sun Sep 22 2019 000 WTNT42 KNHC 220900 TCDAT2 Tropical Storm Karen Discussion Number 1 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122019 500 AM AST Sun Sep 22 2019 Scatterometer surface wind data and observations from the Windward Islands indicate that the low pressure system just east of Tobago has become better defined. Infrared and microwave satellite imagery also show that deep convection has increased and has become better organized around the center. Barbados recently reported a 10-minute wind of 32 kt gusting to 39 kt, and the earlier scatterometer data showed a large field of 30-32 kt winds in the eastern semicircle. Based on these data, the low has been upgraded to Tropical Storm Karen. Tropical Storm Warnings have been issued for the southern Windward Islands as a result. The initial motion estimate is an uncertain 285/10 kt. The latest NHC model guidance is in very good agreement on Karen moving northwestward around the southwestern periphery of a deep-layer ridge for the next 24-36 hours, followed by a turn toward the north into a break in the ridge currently located over the northern Leeward Islands and Puerto Rico. In the 72-96 hour period, Karen is forecast to slow down and possibly even stall and turn westward on day 5 as another large ridge moves eastward across the southeastern United States and builds to the north of the cyclone. The official track forecast lies close to the tightly packed consensus track models TVCN, NOAA-HCCA, and TVCX. Little, if any, change in intensity is expected for the next 48 hours due to strong northeasterly vertical wind shear. However, the upper-level flow is expected to be difluent, which should help Karen maintain its current intensity despite the otherwise unfavorable shear conditions. By 72 hours and beyond, Karen is forecast to move underneath an upper-level anticyclone, which should result in a significant decrease in the shear and also enhance the upper-level outflow, allowing for some strengthening to occur. The NHC intensity forecast closely follows a blend of the the intensity consensus models IVCN and HCCA, and the Decay-SHIPS model. A Tropical Storm Watch will likely be required for Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands later today, and Tropical Storm Warnings may be issued for other areas in the Windward Islands later this morning. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 22/0900Z 11.9N 60.2W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 22/1800Z 12.5N 61.6W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 23/0600Z 13.4N 63.1W 35 KT 40 MPH 36H 23/1800Z 14.7N 64.1W 35 KT 40 MPH 48H 24/0600Z 16.1N 65.1W 35 KT 40 MPH 72H 25/0600Z 19.9N 65.5W 45 KT 50 MPH 96H 26/0600Z 23.4N 65.0W 50 KT 60 MPH 120H 27/0600Z 25.6N 65.6W 55 KT 65 MPH $$ Forecaster Stewart

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