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Tropical Depression Thirteen Forecast Discussion Number 1

2019-09-23 04:44:50| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 1100 PM AST Sun Sep 22 2019 000 WTNT43 KNHC 230244 TCDAT3 Tropical Depression Thirteen Discussion Number 1 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132019 1100 PM AST Sun Sep 22 2019 Satellite imagery and partial scatterometer overpasses indicate that the tropical wave in the eastern tropical Atlantic has developed enough circulation and organized convection to be designated a tropical depression. The convection is currently organized into a large band over the western semicircle, with an additional smaller band to the southeast. The initial intensity is set at 30 kt in best agreement with a satellite intensity estimate from TAFB. The initial motion is 270/14. A strong deep-layer ridge to the north of the depression should steer it generally westward to west-northwestward for the next 3-4 days, with the center passing well to the south and southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands. Near the end of the forecast period, the cyclone is expected to turn northwestward as it approaches a weakness in the ridge. The track guidance is tightly clustered, and the forecast track is in best agreement with the HCCA corrected consensus model. The cyclone is forecast to be in a light to moderate easterly shear environment over warm sea surface temperatures for the next 3-4 days, and there are no obvious negative factors to prevent strengthening. The intensity forecast thus calls for steady intensification through 96 h, with the intensity forecast lying near the upper edge of the guidance from 48-96 h. Some southwesterly shear may develop near 120 h, so the forecast show little change in strength from 96-120 h. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 23/0300Z 10.8N 20.9W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 23/1200Z 10.8N 23.0W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 24/0000Z 11.1N 25.7W 45 KT 50 MPH 36H 24/1200Z 11.8N 28.3W 55 KT 65 MPH 48H 25/0000Z 12.6N 31.0W 65 KT 75 MPH 72H 26/0000Z 13.8N 36.7W 80 KT 90 MPH 96H 27/0000Z 15.5N 41.5W 95 KT 110 MPH 120H 28/0000Z 19.0N 45.5W 95 KT 110 MPH $$ Forecaster Beven

Tags: number discussion tropical depression

Tropical Storm Jerry Forecast Discussion Number 23

2019-09-23 04:35:44| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 1100 PM AST Sun Sep 22 2019 000 WTNT45 KNHC 230235 TCDAT5 Tropical Storm Jerry Discussion Number 23 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL102019 1100 PM AST Sun Sep 22 2019 Jerry has been relatively steady state this evening. Microwave data indicate that the low-level center of the storm is located near the western edge of the main area of deep convection due to strong westerly wind shear. The Air Force Hurricane Hunters investigated the storm a few hours ago, and a combination of the flight-level wind and dropsonde data suggest that the initial intensity is still 55 kt. The minimum pressure measured by the aircraft has also been steady at 993 mb. The initial wind radii have been modified slightly based on the aircraft data and a recent ASCAT pass. The tropical storm is currently located in a region of strong westerly wind shear to the southeast of a mid- to upper-level trough. The shear is expected to remain relatively strong during the next several days, which in combination with drier air and decreasing SSTs along the forecast track should cause gradual weakening during the next several days. The NHC intensity forecast is a little lower than the previous one to become in better agreement with the latest HCCA and IVCN guidance. Jerry is moving north-northwestward at 9 kt, and that general motion should continue for about another day as it remains steered by a mid-level ridge to its northeast. A sharp turn toward the northeast and then the east is predicted after that when the trough reaches the system causing it to become embedded in the mid-latitude westerlies. There remains a fair amount of spread in the model tracks, especially from days 3 to 5. The NHC track forecast is a tad to the right of the previous one, leaning toward the latest runs of the GFS and ECMWF models. Key Messages: 1. A Tropical Storm Watch has been issued for Bermuda. Tropical- storm-force winds are possible on Bermuda by late Tuesday. 2. Large swells are expected to affect the coast of Bermuda during the next few days. These swells could cause life-threatening rip currents. See products issued by the Bermuda Weather Service for more information. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 23/0300Z 27.4N 67.2W 55 KT 65 MPH 12H 23/1200Z 28.4N 67.7W 55 KT 65 MPH 24H 24/0000Z 29.8N 68.2W 50 KT 60 MPH 36H 24/1200Z 31.2N 68.4W 50 KT 60 MPH 48H 25/0000Z 32.4N 67.4W 50 KT 60 MPH 72H 26/0000Z 35.0N 61.5W 45 KT 50 MPH 96H 27/0000Z 37.3N 54.0W 45 KT 50 MPH 120H 28/0000Z 38.5N 48.0W 40 KT 45 MPH $$ Forecaster Cangialosi

Tags: number discussion storm jerry

Tropical Storm Kiko Forecast Discussion Number 43

2019-09-23 04:35:14| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 500 PM HST Sun Sep 22 2019 519 WTPZ43 KNHC 230235 TCDEP3 Tropical Storm Kiko Discussion Number 43 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP132019 500 PM HST Sun Sep 22 2019 There's been little change in Kiko's cloud pattern during the past several hours, and the subjective and objective satellite intensity estimates remain unchanged. Subsequently, the initial intensity is held at 35 kt for this advisory. The HFIP HCCA and the Florida State Superensemble intensity guidance indicate that there's still a chance that Kiko could re-strengthen a bit during the next 24 hours as it continues moving over warm oceanic sea surface temperature and in a low shear surrounding environment. After that time, increasing southwesterly shear and cooler waters should induce a weakening trend, and Kiko is forecast to become a remnant low in 3 days. Based on a timely 0020 UTC SSMI microwave pass, the initial motion is estimated to be west-southwestward, or 240/7 kt, which is a little south of the previous forecast. There are no significant changes to the forecast philosophy for this advisory. Kiko should turn westward to west-northwestward on Monday, and then northwestward on Tuesday as a high amplitude mid-tropospheric trough cuts off, from the upper-level westerlies, to the northwest of the Kiko. Around day 3, as the cyclone degenerates into a vertically shallow remnant low, Kiko is forecast to, once again, turn back toward the southwest within the low-level tradewinds. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 23/0300Z 15.5N 134.5W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 23/1200Z 15.4N 135.5W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 24/0000Z 16.3N 136.9W 45 KT 50 MPH 36H 24/1200Z 17.7N 138.2W 40 KT 45 MPH 48H 25/0000Z 18.6N 139.2W 35 KT 40 MPH 72H 26/0000Z 19.2N 141.2W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 27/0000Z 18.0N 142.3W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 28/0000Z 17.1N 142.6W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Roberts

Tags: number discussion storm tropical

Tropical Depression Mario Forecast Discussion Number 23

2019-09-23 04:33:50| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 900 PM MDT Sun Sep 22 2019 000 WTPZ44 KNHC 230233 TCDEP4 Tropical Depression Mario Discussion Number 23 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP142019 900 PM MDT Sun Sep 22 2019 The deep convection that formed earlier today to the west of the center of Mario is gradually decreasing in both intensity and coverage, and the system is likely on its way to becoming a remnant low. The initial intensity is held at 30 kt based on the earlier ASCAT data that showed a region of 25-30 kt winds. Mario is headed for cool waters, and it should be crossing the 26 C isotherm on early Monday. These cool waters and a dry and stable air mass should cause the deep convection to dissipate, and Mario will likely become a remnant low in about 12 hours. All of the models show the remnant low opening up into a trough over the central Baja California peninsula in about 2 days. The NHC intensity forecast is based largely on the GFS and ECMWF guidance, and now shows dissipation by 48 hours when the cyclone is forecast to enter a region of strong westerly wind shear. Satellite fixes indicate that the depression continues to move north-northwestward at 9 kt. Mario, or its remnants, are expected to move slower to the north-northwest and then the north during the next day or so within the low-level flow until it dissipates. The NHC track forecast is close to the consensus models. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 23/0300Z 23.4N 112.9W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 23/1200Z 24.6N 113.7W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 24H 24/0000Z 26.0N 114.1W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 24/1200Z 27.1N 114.2W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 25/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Cangialosi

Tags: number discussion mario tropical

Tropical Depression Mario Forecast Discussion Number 22

2019-09-22 23:10:21| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 300 PM MDT Sun Sep 22 2019 000 WTPZ44 KNHC 222109 CCA TCDEP4 Tropical Depression Mario Discussion Number 22...Corrected NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP142019 300 PM MDT Sun Sep 22 2019 Corrected status at 48H (24/1800Z) Mario has maintained its reprieve from discontinuance of advisories, with a few thunderstorms persisting to the west of the low-level center. This continues to barely support tropical cyclone status. Assuming that this convection dissipates soon, the cyclone could degenerate into remnant low by early Monday. The system is likely to dissipate completely in a couple of days. Mario continues to move north-northwestward, or 345 at 9 kt. The cyclone should move around the western periphery of a mid-level anticyclone and make landfall over the south-central Baja California on Tuesday as a very weak system. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 22/2100Z 22.9N 112.4W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 23/0600Z 24.0N 113.1W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 24H 23/1800Z 25.3N 114.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 24/0600Z 26.4N 114.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 24/1800Z 27.5N 113.6W 15 KT 15 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 25/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Pasch

Tags: number discussion mario tropical

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