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Tropical Storm Kiko Forecast Discussion Number 38

2019-09-21 22:34:02| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 200 PM PDT Sat Sep 21 2019 000 WTPZ43 KNHC 212033 TCDEP3 Tropical Storm Kiko Discussion Number 38 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP132019 200 PM PDT Sat Sep 21 2019 A pair of ASCAT passes within the past 2-3 hours revealed maximum winds of 40-45 kt, so Kiko's intensity has been lowered to 45 kt. The low-level center appears to be moving out from under the convective cirrus, and the cloud-top temperatures have been warming significantly for much of the day. According to analyses from UW-CIMMS, about 15 kt of southwesterly shear is affecting the cyclone, but there is a chance that the shear will decrease a bit as Kiko loses latitude during the next 36 hours. On the negative side, Kiko will remain in a relatively dry and somewhat stable air mass, and these conditions could limit the amount of deep convection the cyclone is able to produce. The new NHC intensity forecast is very close to the IVCN consensus and the HCCA model, keeping a relatively steady intensity for the next 3 days. By days 4 and 5, an increase in shear and lower oceanic heat content should lead to weakening, and simulated infrared satellite imagery from the GFS and ECMWF suggest that Kiko's deep convection may dissipate for good by that time. As a result, the official forecast now shows Kiko becoming a remnant low by day 5. Kiko is now moving slowly west-southwestward, or 250/4 kt. An elongated mid- to upper-level trough extending from California to near the Hawaiian Islands is digging southward, which is forcing the subtropical ridge--and Kiko--to lose latitude during the next 36 hours. After that time, the western portion of the trough is forecast to cut off east of the Hawaiian Islands, causing Kiko to turn sharply northwestward on days 2-4. Once a remnant low, Kiko is then expected to be steered by lower-level flow, causing it to turn back to the southwest. The updated NHC track is a little farther south during the first 2 days to account for the adjusted initial position, otherwise it's very close the previous forecast and the various multi-model consensus aids. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 21/2100Z 18.0N 131.6W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 22/0600Z 17.4N 132.5W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 22/1800Z 16.5N 133.6W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 23/0600Z 15.9N 134.8W 40 KT 45 MPH 48H 23/1800Z 16.1N 135.9W 45 KT 50 MPH 72H 24/1800Z 18.3N 137.5W 40 KT 45 MPH 96H 25/1800Z 19.0N 138.8W 30 KT 35 MPH 120H 26/1800Z 17.7N 139.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Berg

Tags: number discussion storm tropical

Hurricane Lorena Forecast Discussion Number 17

2019-09-21 17:00:00| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 900 AM MDT Sat Sep 21 2019 000 WTPZ45 KNHC 211459 TCDEP5 Hurricane Lorena Discussion Number 17 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP152019 900 AM MDT Sat Sep 21 2019 The circulation of Lorena has been interacting with the high terrain of the Baja California peninsula for the past 12 hours and most likely the inner core has been disrupted. The center is very difficult to locate on conventional imagery, but it is estimated to be near the area of the deepest convection in the Gulf of California. Based on continuity and Dvorak estimates, the initial intensity is kept at 65 kt at this time. Given that a portion of Lorena's circulation will continue to interact with land and that the shear is forecast to increase significantly, gradual weakening is anticipated. However, the intensity forecast is uncertain since we do not know how much the inner core was disrupted by land. An Air Force plane will investigate Lorena later today and should provide a better assessment of Lorena's winds. Since we do not have a good center location, the initial motion is uncertain but the best estimate is toward the north or 350 degrees at 10 kt. The steering currents associated with a subtropical high over Mexico and an approaching mid-latitude trough should force Lorena on a northerly track across the Gulf of California, and bring the center of Lorena to mainland Mexico in about 24 hours. Once the center moves inland rapid weakening is anticipated. The NHC forecast is in the middle of the guidance envelope and is very close to the corrected consensus HCCA. Key Messages: 1. Lorena will produce heavy rain, with life-threatening flash floods possible this weekend in parts of Baja California and northwest Mexico. Moisture associated with Lorena is forecast to bring a chance for heavy rain to the southwest United States late this weekend and early next week. 2. Lorena is forecast to continue to produce tropical-storm-force winds over a portion of the east coast of the Baja California peninsula today. These conditions are expected to reach portions of mainland Mexico tonight where a Tropical Storm Warning and Hurricane Watch is in effect. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 21/1500Z 25.6N 110.6W 65 KT 75 MPH 12H 22/0000Z 27.0N 111.2W 60 KT 70 MPH 24H 22/1200Z 29.0N 111.5W 50 KT 60 MPH 36H 23/0000Z 31.0N 112.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND 48H 23/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Avila

Tags: number discussion forecast hurricane

Tropical Storm Jerry Forecast Discussion Number 17

2019-09-21 16:53:31| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 1100 AM AST Sat Sep 21 2019 000 WTNT45 KNHC 211453 TCDAT5 Tropical Storm Jerry Discussion Number 17 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL102019 1100 AM AST Sat Sep 21 2019 An Air Force Reserve hurricane hunter plane has investigated Jerry this morning and found that the tropical storm has become quite disorganized. The highest flight level winds reported by the plane at the 700 mb level were 59 kt, which supports holding the intensity at 55 kt. The highest reliable SFMR winds were lower and the minimum pressure estimated from the plane data was 999 mb, so its possible that Jerry's winds are actually a little lower. Jerry is still moving northwestward, with an initial motion of 315/12 kt. The track guidance is still in very good agreement on the forecast track for the tropical storm, and only small changes were made to the track forecast. Jerry should continue northwestward today, and then turn northward on Sunday toward a break in the subtropical ridge. By late Monday or Tuesday, Jerry should turn northeastward and begin to accelerate in that direction ahead of an approaching mid-latitude trough, likely passing near Bermuda late Tuesday or early Wednesday. The track guidance is still tightly clustered, especially for the first 72 h of the forecast, and the NHC forecast is near the consensus throughout the 5-day period. Because Jerry is not well organized at the moment, no strengthening is expected in the short term. The NHC forecast now calls for little change in Jerry's intensity for the next couple days, and I can't rule out that additional weakening could occur later today or tomorrow. Most of the guidance suggests that restrengthening could then occur once Jerry turns northeastward ahead of the aforementioned mid-latitude trough, perhaps in part due to baroclinic forcing. Jerry is still forecast to become a hurricane again before the end of the forecast period, but the NHC forecast is now on the high side of the guidance, a little above the consensus. Key Messages: 1. Jerry is forecast to be near hurricane strength when it moves near Bermuda late Tuesday or early Wednesday. It is too soon to determine what impacts the system may have on the island but interests there should monitor the progress of Jerry. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 21/1500Z 22.0N 65.0W 55 KT 65 MPH 12H 22/0000Z 23.3N 66.0W 55 KT 65 MPH 24H 22/1200Z 25.0N 66.9W 55 KT 65 MPH 36H 23/0000Z 26.4N 67.1W 55 KT 65 MPH 48H 23/1200Z 27.8N 67.1W 55 KT 65 MPH 72H 24/1200Z 30.6N 66.3W 60 KT 70 MPH 96H 25/1200Z 34.5N 62.0W 65 KT 75 MPH 120H 26/1200Z 38.5N 57.5W 65 KT 75 MPH $$ Forecaster Zelinsky

Tags: number discussion storm jerry

Tropical Storm Kiko Forecast Discussion Number 37

2019-09-21 16:53:31| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 800 AM PDT Sat Sep 21 2019 000 WTPZ43 KNHC 211453 TCDEP3 Tropical Storm Kiko Discussion Number 37 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP132019 800 AM PDT Sat Sep 21 2019 A couple of recent microwave images shows that the low and mid-level centers of Kiko are not vertically aligned due to some southwesterly shear. The center is located beneath the cold cloud tops, but is near the southwestern edge of the convective mass. Dvorak current intensity (CI) numbers from both agencies and SATCON estimates from UW/CIMSS are between 50-55 kt, therefore the initial intensity is held at 55 kt but this could be a little generous. Little overall change in strength is foreast during the next couple of days while Kiko remains over SSTs of 26-27C and in generally low shear conditions. After that time, increasing southerly shear and a marginal thermodynamic environment are likely to cause gradual weakening. The updated NHC wind speed forecast is very close to the previous advisory. It appears that Kiko has turned westward or 270/3 kt. A narrow mid-level ridge to north of Kiko is forecast to strengthen today, which is expected to cause the cyclone to turn southwestward later today. A southwestward motion should continue for a couple of days, but the dynamical models weaken the ridge after that time, and Kiko is likely to turn back northwestward early next week. The track guidance is in decent agreement on this scenario and the NHC forecast lies near the consensus aids. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 21/1500Z 18.4N 131.1W 55 KT 65 MPH 12H 22/0000Z 18.1N 131.9W 50 KT 60 MPH 24H 22/1200Z 17.3N 133.0W 50 KT 60 MPH 36H 23/0000Z 16.5N 134.2W 50 KT 60 MPH 48H 23/1200Z 16.0N 135.4W 50 KT 60 MPH 72H 24/1200Z 17.7N 137.0W 40 KT 45 MPH 96H 25/1200Z 18.9N 138.3W 35 KT 40 MPH 120H 26/1200Z 18.5N 139.8W 30 KT 35 MPH $$ Forecaster Brown

Tags: number discussion storm tropical

Tropical Storm Mario Forecast Discussion Number 17

2019-09-21 16:47:58| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 900 AM MDT Sat Sep 21 2019 000 WTPZ44 KNHC 211447 TCDEP4 Tropical Storm Mario Discussion Number 17 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP142019 900 AM MDT Sat Sep 21 2019 Geostationary satellite imagery shows the low-level center of Mario is exposed to the northeast of the main convective mass, which is the result of strong northeasterly shear. An average of the latest Dvorak intensity estimates, and UW-CIMSS SATCON yields an initial wind speed of 45 kt. Hopefully, ASCAT data will provide a better assessment of the cyclone's intensity later today. The vertical shear over Mario is forecast to remain moderate to strong during the next 24 hours while Mario heads toward cooler waters. This should result in gradual weakening. After that time, the shear is forecast to decrease but the system will be moving into a more stable air mass and reach the 26C isotherm by 48 hours. Continued weakening is forecast and Mario is forecast to degenerate into a remnant low in a couple of days. Mario is progressing slowly north-northwestward, or 330 degrees at 4 kt. The dynamical model guidance is in relatively good agreement on a northwesterly track around the western side of a mid-level ridge. As Mario weakens, it should turn northward and slow down with the low-level steering flow. The latest consensus aids were a little west of the previous track, so the latest official forecast has been nudged in that direction. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 21/1500Z 18.9N 110.5W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 22/0000Z 19.9N 111.1W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 22/1200Z 21.1N 112.0W 35 KT 40 MPH 36H 23/0000Z 22.4N 113.0W 30 KT 35 MPH 48H 23/1200Z 23.6N 113.9W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 24/1200Z 25.2N 114.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 25/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Brown

Tags: number discussion mario storm

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