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Tropical Storm Jerry Forecast Discussion Number 19

2019-09-22 04:39:11| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 1100 PM AST Sat Sep 21 2019 000 WTNT45 KNHC 220239 TCDAT5 Tropical Storm Jerry Discussion Number 19 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL102019 1100 PM AST Sat Sep 21 2019 Jerry's center is still exposed to the northwest of the bulk of the deep convection, although a new burst of thunderstorms is just now developing just to the southeast of the center. With no significant change to the storm's structure, the initial intensity is held at 55 kt, which matches a blend of final-T and CI numbers from TAFB and SAB. UW-CIMSS is depicting 15-20 kt of westerly shear over Jerry at the moment, although the analysis suggests that the cyclone could sneak into a slightly lower-shear environment during the next 12-24 hours. After that time, however, Jerry is expected to interact with a mid- to upper-level trough, putting the system under counterbalancing influences of strong shear but stronger divergence aloft. Because of these conditions, only small fluctuations in intensity are expected during the next 4 days or so. Jerry will be bumping up against a baroclinic zone while interacting with the trough, and it's likely that extratropical transition will at least commence while this system is over the western Atlantic. At this point, however, that transition is not expected to be complete before the end of the 5-day forecast period. The initial motion is northwestward, or 325/13 kt. Jerry is still expected to continue recurving around the subtropical ridge, interact with the western Atlantic trough in about 48 hours, and then become embedded in the mid-latitude westerlies from day 3 onward. Except for a slight westward kink in the track between 48-72, resulting from Jerry's expected interaction with the trough, little change in the NHC track forecast was required from the previous one. Key Messages: 1. The risk of tropical-storm-force winds on Bermuda is increasing, with Jerry forecast to pass near the island Tuesday and Wednesday. It is too soon to determine what impacts the system may have on Bermuda, but interests there should monitor the progress of Jerry. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 22/0300Z 24.1N 66.3W 55 KT 65 MPH 12H 22/1200Z 25.4N 67.1W 55 KT 65 MPH 24H 23/0000Z 26.7N 67.8W 60 KT 70 MPH 36H 23/1200Z 28.0N 68.0W 60 KT 70 MPH 48H 24/0000Z 29.4N 68.0W 60 KT 70 MPH 72H 25/0000Z 32.6N 66.2W 55 KT 65 MPH 96H 26/0000Z 36.8N 60.2W 55 KT 65 MPH 120H 27/0000Z 40.8N 54.0W 50 KT 60 MPH $$ Forecaster Berg

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Tropical Storm Lorena Forecast Discussion Number 19

2019-09-22 04:37:03| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 900 PM MDT Sat Sep 21 2019 000 WTPZ45 KNHC 220236 TCDEP5 Tropical Storm Lorena Discussion Number 19 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP152019 900 PM MDT Sat Sep 21 2019 Recent SSMI/S and WindSat microwave overpasses helped locate the center of Lorena, which was hidden under a band of cirrus clouds, over the Gulf of California southwest of Guymas. The system was devoid of convection for several hours. However, a new burst of convection has recently formed just northeast of the center. There is little data near the central core, so the initial intensity is set at 40 kt based mainly on continuity from the previous advisory. Lorena should make landfall over northwestern Mexico during the next several hours, then rapidly weaken over the mountainous terrain and dissipate over northwestern Mexico by Monday morning. The microwave data indicate that Lorena is continuing to move just west of due north or 355/10 kt. A general northward or perhaps north-northwestward motion is expected until the cyclone dissipates, and the new forecast track is changed little from the previous advisory track. Key Messages: 1. Lorena may produce dangerous flash flooding in Sonora Saturday night and Sunday. Moisture associated with Lorena may also result in locally heavy rain over parts of Arizona early in the week. There is a Slight Risk of excessive rainfall over central Arizona on Monday. 2. Lorena is expected to bring tropical-storm-force winds over portions of the tropical storm warning area during the next several hours. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 22/0300Z 27.6N 111.2W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 22/1200Z 29.0N 111.7W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND 24H 23/0000Z 30.9N 112.1W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 23/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Beven

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Tropical Storm Jerry Forecast Discussion Number 18

2019-09-21 22:51:02| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 500 PM AST Sat Sep 21 2019 000 WTNT45 KNHC 212050 TCDAT5 Tropical Storm Jerry Discussion Number 18 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL102019 500 PM AST Sat Sep 21 2019 Jerry has become quite disorganized this afternoon. The low-level center is exposed to the northwest of a small area of persistent deep convection. The NOAA G-IV aircraft, which is flying a research mission in and around the tropical storm, measured a minimum pressure of 1004 mb with 17 kt of wind, implying that the minimum pressure of Jerry has increased since this morning. However, ASCAT data from a couple hours after an Air Force Reserve hurricane hunter plane completed its mission into Jerry showed that the maximum winds were still 50-55 kt. The max winds are therefore conservatively held at 55 kt for this advisory. Only minor adjustments were made to the NHC intensity forecast, and users should not focus on the 5 kt difference between a tropical storm and hurricane, especially at 72 h and beyond. Based on Jerry's disheveled appearance, significant strengthening does not seem imminent. That said, the HWRF and HMON forecast that the cyclone will quickly restrengthen tonight or tomorrow and become a hurricane again. If the shear decreases during the next 24 hours, that is possible, however SHIPS diagnostics suggest that will not happen. The NHC forecast instead follows the statistical guidance, and keeps Jerry in a more-or-less steady state through day 5. The cyclone is still forecast to be near hurricane strength when it moves near Bermuda next week, and there is still a distinct possibility that Jerry will re-gain hurricane strength at some point during the next 5 days. All of the models still show Jerry turning northward later today or on Sunday toward a break in the subtropical ridge, and then turning northeastward ahead of an approaching mid-latitude trough. This track will bring Jerry close to Bermuda by late Tuesday or early Wednesday. The model spread has increased a little since the last advisory, but confidence in this scenario is still high. The NHC track forecast has been adjusted only slightly to the west and remains near the multi-model consensus through day 5. Key Messages: 1. Jerry is forecast to be near hurricane strength when it moves near Bermuda late Tuesday or early Wednesday. It is too soon to determine what impacts the system may have on the island but interests there should monitor the progress of Jerry. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 21/2100Z 23.0N 65.8W 55 KT 65 MPH 12H 22/0600Z 24.3N 66.9W 55 KT 65 MPH 24H 22/1800Z 25.8N 67.6W 60 KT 70 MPH 36H 23/0600Z 27.0N 67.8W 60 KT 70 MPH 48H 23/1800Z 28.5N 67.8W 60 KT 70 MPH 72H 24/1800Z 31.5N 66.5W 60 KT 70 MPH 96H 25/1800Z 35.5N 61.5W 60 KT 70 MPH 120H 26/1800Z 40.0N 56.0W 60 KT 70 MPH $$ Forecaster Zelinsky

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Tropical Storm Lorena Forecast Discussion Number 18

2019-09-21 22:46:31| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 300 PM MDT Sat Sep 21 2019 000 WTPZ45 KNHC 212046 CCA TCDEP5 Tropical Storm Lorena Discussion Number 18...Corrected NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP152019 300 PM MDT Sat Sep 21 2019 Corrected to add status of remnant low at 36 hours The inner core of Lorena did not survive its path across the high terrain of the southern portion of the Baja California peninsula. An Air Force reconnaissance aircraft investigated the cyclone and found that Lorena has weakened significantly. The central pressure rose to 1002 mb, and the peak winds are only 45 kt. These winds are confined to a small area to the north and east of the center. The cloud pattern has also deteriorated significantly since yesterday. Although the ocean is quite warm in the Gulf of California, the shear is rapidly increasing, and this factor should continue to weaken the already battered storm. However, the NHC forecast calls for Lorena to reach the coast of northwestern Mexico within the tropical storm warning area in about 18 hours or so as a tropical storm. After landfall, rapid weakening is anticipated, but heavy rains should continue for another day or so. Lorena is moving toward the north or 350 degrees at 10 kt, steered by the flow around the western periphery of a subtropical high. This flow pattern will persist, and Lorena is anticipated to continue on this general track for the next day or two until dissipation over the Sonoran Desert. Key Messages: 1. Lorena will produce heavy rain, with life-threatening flash floods possible, this weekend in parts of northwestern mainland Mexico. Moisture associated with Lorena is forecast to bring a chance for heavy rain to the southwest United States late this weekend and early next week. 2. Lorena is expected to bring tropical-storm-force winds over portions of the tropical storm warning area beginning tonight. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 21/2100Z 26.7N 111.1W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 22/0600Z 28.2N 111.6W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 22/1800Z 30.0N 112.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND 36H 23/0600Z 32.0N 112.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 23/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Avila

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Tropical Storm Mario Forecast Discussion Number 18

2019-09-21 22:40:10| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 300 PM MDT Sat Sep 21 2019 000 WTPZ44 KNHC 212039 TCDEP4 Tropical Storm Mario Discussion Number 18 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP142019 300 PM MDT Sat Sep 21 2019 Deep convection has become even more displaced from the center of Mario, and the closest thunderstorms are now more than 60 n mi to the southwest of the cyclone's exposed center. The intensity of the weakening tropical cyclone is now 40 kt, based on a blend of Final-T and CI numbers from TAFB. Strong easterly shear affecting Mario is not expected to decrease much for the next day or two, and it seems unlikely that the cyclone will be able to recover. By the time the shear does relax early next week, Mario will be moving over much cooler waters, which should inhibit the redevelopment of organized deep convection. Further weakening is therefore forecast, and Mario is now expected to become a post-tropical remnant low in 36 hours. Given current trends in convection, it's possible that Mario could become post-tropical sooner than that. The NHC intensity forecast is merely an update of the previous advisory. The tropical storm has drifted slowly northward so far this afternoon but should resume a north-northwestward track by tonight. The models are still in fairly good agreement that Mario will then be steered in that general direction for a few days after that. It is still within the realm of possibility that the cyclone could reach the Baja California peninsula, but it will likely become a remnant low before it does so. Little change was made to the official track forecast, which is very slightly east of the previous forecast. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 21/2100Z 19.6N 110.5W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 22/0600Z 20.5N 111.1W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 22/1800Z 21.8N 112.1W 30 KT 35 MPH 36H 23/0600Z 23.3N 113.2W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 23/1800Z 24.4N 113.8W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 24/1800Z 26.1N 113.8W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 25/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Zelinsky

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