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Tropical Storm Kiko Forecast Discussion Number 33

2019-09-20 16:47:41| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 800 AM PDT Fri Sep 20 2019 970 WTPZ43 KNHC 201447 TCDEP3 Tropical Storm Kiko Discussion Number 33 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP132019 800 AM PDT Fri Sep 20 2019 A pair of microwave images between 0900 and 1100 UTC revealed that Kiko has redeveloped a well-defined low-level inner core. However, most of the deep convection associated with the tropical storm is located northeast of the center, a result of moderate southwesterly shear. The intensity of Kiko has been raised slightly to 50 kt based on an average of the most recent TAFB and SAB Dvorak estimates. Kiko is now moving north-northwestward, but is still expected to turn generally westward, and then west-southwestward as a mid-level ridge builds to the north of the cyclone during the next couple of days. Toward the end of the forecast period, the ridge could weaken (again) and Kiko could turn northwestward (again) but the models vary on the details of exactly when and where this will happen. Regardless, Kiko seems destined to continue weaving its way slowly westward through early next week. Only small adjustments to the track forecast were made, which remains near HCCA and TVCE. Kiko has a chance to strengthen a little more today while it continues on its current heading. After that, every intensity model forecasts that Kiko will slightly weaken or level off, and the NHC forecast shows the same. Only a small tweak was made to the NHC forecast for the first 24 hours to account for the higher initial intensity of Kiko, and the new forecast is identical to the previous advisory after that. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 20/1500Z 17.7N 130.2W 50 KT 60 MPH 12H 21/0000Z 18.1N 130.7W 55 KT 65 MPH 24H 21/1200Z 18.3N 131.5W 50 KT 60 MPH 36H 22/0000Z 17.9N 132.5W 45 KT 50 MPH 48H 22/1200Z 17.3N 133.5W 45 KT 50 MPH 72H 23/1200Z 16.9N 135.5W 45 KT 50 MPH 96H 24/1200Z 18.0N 136.9W 45 KT 50 MPH 120H 25/1200Z 19.0N 138.5W 40 KT 45 MPH $$ Forecaster Zelinsky

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Tropical Storm Lorena Forecast Discussion Number 12

2019-09-20 10:44:42| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 300 AM MDT Fri Sep 20 2019 933 WTPZ45 KNHC 200844 TCDEP5 Tropical Storm Lorena Discussion Number 12 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP152019 300 AM MDT Fri Sep 20 2019 A series of METOP-B microwave composite images reveal an improved inner core this morning with a distinct banding eye feature and developing outer bands in the east portion of the cyclone. Lorena is close to hurricane strength, and the initial intensity of 60 kt is a compromise of the subjective and objective satellite intensity estimates, and a SATCON analysis of 57 kt. Lorena is expected to re-gain hurricane strength very soon as it passes near or over the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula. Some further intensification is forecast before the cyclone traverses much cooler oceanic sea surface temperatures beyond the 36-hour period. Lorena is expected to degenerate into a remnant low in 3 days, however, the chances of the cyclone interacting and becoming absorbed by Tropical Storm Mario in 48 hours or so have increased significantly. Regardless of the possible interaction scenario, dissipation of Lorena will occur in less than 4 days. The initial motion is estimated to be west-northwestward, or 290/8 kt. The cyclone is currently situated between a mid- to upper-level tropospheric ridge over northern Mexico and larger Tropical Storm Mario to the southwest, while a high amplitude shortwave trough, northwest of Lorena, approaches the west coast of the United States. The global and regional guidance has become more aligned with the interaction with Mario in a couple of days, and has shifted considerably toward the west away from the Baja California peninsula. Subsequently, a major shift of the official forecast has been made to the left of the previous forecast, but the NHC track still lies well to the east of the various multi-model consensus models. At this point, only the legacy GFS global model fails to show binary interaction with Mario. Wind radii adjustments were made based on 0334 UTC scatterometer data. Key Messages: 1. Lorena is expected to bring heavy rainfall to the far southern Baja California Sur today into Saturday, with flash flooding possible. 2. Lorena is forecast to bring hurricane-force winds to a portion of the southern Baja California peninsula today, where a Hurricane Warning is in effect. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 20/0900Z 22.3N 108.5W 60 KT 70 MPH 12H 20/1800Z 22.5N 109.6W 65 KT 75 MPH 24H 21/0600Z 22.7N 110.7W 70 KT 80 MPH 36H 21/1800Z 23.1N 112.0W 65 KT 75 MPH 48H 22/0600Z 24.1N 113.4W 55 KT 65 MPH 72H 23/0600Z 26.4N 115.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 24/0600Z...DISSIPATED OR ABSORBED BY MARIO $$ Forecaster Roberts

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Hurricane Jerry Forecast Discussion Number 12

2019-09-20 10:38:41| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 500 AM AST Fri Sep 20 2019 000 WTNT45 KNHC 200838 TCDAT5 Hurricane Jerry Discussion Number 12 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL102019 500 AM AST Fri Sep 20 2019 Jerry appears to have stopped strengthening for now. The last reports from the Air Force Hurricane Hunters indicated that the minimum pressure had risen slightly, and the satellite appearance has become a little more ragged during the past several hours. Radar images sent from the aircraft showed a well-defined inner core, but there are no hints of an eye in geostationary satellite images. The initial intensity is held at 90 kt based on the earlier aircraft data. Both the Air Force and NOAA Hurricane Hunters will be investigating Jerry later today, and that data should provide a better assessment of its intensity and structure. Jerry continues to move west-northwestward at a relatively quick pace of 14 kt. This motion is expected to continue for about another 24 hours as the cyclone is steered by a subtropical ridge to its northeast. The ridge is expected to weaken and slide eastward late this weekend in response to an eastward-moving trough over the north Atlantic. This change in the steering pattern should cause Jerry to slow down and gradually turn to the northwest and then the north late this weekend and early next week. A faster north- northeastward motion is anticipated toward the end of the forecast period as another trough approaches the system. The models remain in very good agreement on the hurricane passing well to the north of the northern Leeward Island and Puerto Rico late today and Saturday and possibly moving near Bermuda in a little more than 4 days. The only notable change this cycle is a slower northward motion from days 3 to 5 to be in better agreement with the latest models. The intensity forecast is a bit more challenging. The global models show a relatively favorable upper-level wind pattern over Jerry during the next couple of days, but there is also a significant amount of dry air around the cyclone. Although the shear could increase early next week, some of the models show Jerry deepening, likely due to baroclinic effects due to the nearby trough. There is a very large spread in the intensity guidance ranging from SHIPS and LGEM showing little change in strength to pronounced weakening shown by HMON during the forecast period. The NHC intensity forecast is between those extremes and lies a little above the consensus aids. Key Messages: 1. Although the core of Jerry is expected to move north of the northern Leeward Islands, heavy rainfall and flash floods are possible there today. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 20/0900Z 18.4N 58.7W 90 KT 105 MPH 12H 20/1800Z 19.1N 60.8W 85 KT 100 MPH 24H 21/0600Z 20.4N 63.3W 80 KT 90 MPH 36H 21/1800Z 21.8N 65.4W 75 KT 85 MPH 48H 22/0600Z 23.2N 67.1W 70 KT 80 MPH 72H 23/0600Z 26.1N 68.4W 65 KT 75 MPH 96H 24/0600Z 29.4N 66.8W 65 KT 75 MPH 120H 25/0600Z 34.6N 63.0W 65 KT 75 MPH $$ Forecaster Cangialosi

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Tropical Storm Mario Forecast Discussion Number 12

2019-09-20 10:38:41| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 300 AM MDT Fri Sep 20 2019 000 WTPZ44 KNHC 200838 TCDEP4 Tropical Storm Mario Discussion Number 12 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP142019 300 AM MDT Fri Sep 20 2019 Recent microwave imagery and ASCAT data indicate that Mario's center is located a little to the southwest of previous estimates, near a bursting area of deep convection with cloud top temperatures colder than -80C. The initial intensity estimate remains 55 kt based on the latest Dvorak classifications from TAFB and SAB. The UW-CIMSS analysis shows shear currently around 5 kt, but the SHIPS analysis is higher, showing 15 kt. Given the cloud pattern and a banding eye feature seen in a partial GMI overpass around 0740Z, the shear looks on the lower side of that range. The NHC intensity forecast continues to show some strengthening in the short term. After that time the shear increases and the cyclone will be moving into a drier and more stable environment with decreasing SSTs. These factors should result in gradual weakening, with remnant low status expected by day 4. The new NHC intensity forecast is at or above the highest guidance through 24 hours and then is a little above the consensus aids but below the higher SHIPS and LGEM forecasts. The initial motion estimate is a somewhat uncertain 030/4, as Mario appears to have slowed and turned more poleward during the past few hours. The latest global models have trended toward more interaction between Mario and Lorena this cycle. The GFS and UKMET show a merger of the two systems within 24 hours. Alternatively, the ECMWF shows a weakening Mario absorbing Lorena after 48 hours near the west coast of the Baja California peninsula with a track well east of the rest of the guidance. The NHC forecast keeps the systems separate for now, with Lorena shown as dissipated in 96 hours. However, a merger is possible by 48 hours. The new NHC track shows Mario turning northward and then northwestward within 24 hours as a mid-level ridge builds over northern Mexico. Late in the period, a weakening Mario is expected to turn westward and then west-southwestward under the influence of a large low-level ridge over the north Pacific. The new NHC track is to the right of the TVCE consensus, but is actually bit to the left of the previous NHC track given the initial position and motion of the system during the past few hours. Given the uncertainty in the degree of interaction with Lorena, confidence is low in the details of the track forecast even within the first 48 hours, and additional adjustments may be needed later today. Data from the above-mentioned ASCAT pass were used to adjust the initial 34-kt wind radii. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 20/0900Z 17.6N 110.2W 55 KT 65 MPH 12H 20/1800Z 18.4N 110.0W 60 KT 70 MPH 24H 21/0600Z 19.5N 110.8W 60 KT 70 MPH 36H 21/1800Z 20.7N 112.3W 50 KT 60 MPH 48H 22/0600Z 21.6N 113.9W 45 KT 50 MPH 72H 23/0600Z 24.0N 117.0W 35 KT 40 MPH 96H 24/0600Z 24.5N 119.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 25/0600Z 24.0N 121.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Brennan

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Tropical Storm Kiko Forecast Discussion Number 32

2019-09-20 10:33:14| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 200 AM PDT Fri Sep 20 2019 000 WTPZ43 KNHC 200833 TCDEP3 Tropical Storm Kiko Discussion Number 32 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP132019 200 AM PDT Fri Sep 20 2019 Kiko has generally changed little during the last several hours. The low-level center is located near the southwestern edge of a persistent area of deep convection. This asymmetric cloud pattern is due to about 20 kt of southwesterly vertical wind shear as estimated by UW-CIMSS. The initial intensity is held at 45 kt, which is in agreement with the Dvorak classifications from TAFB and SAB, and the latest SATCON estimate. Kiko is moving slowly northwestward, and is expected to continue in that general direction through today. A turn to the west and then west-southwest is expected this weekend as a mid-level ridge builds to the northwest of the cyclone. After that time, the models diverge considerably, with some taking Kiko northward and others westward. The differences in the models appear to be at least partially associated with the vertical depth of Kiko early next week. The NHC track forecast lies again roughly near the middle of the guidance envelope, in best agreement with the various consensus aids. Although the details of the track forecast are still uncertain, it seems likely that Kiko will continue to move slowly over the southwestern portion of the east Pacific basin for several more days. Since there is significant uncertainty in the track forecast, the future intensity of Kiko is also uncertain given that the environment is very track dependent. The models, in general, show Kiko changing little in intensity, and the NHC forecast does likewise. This forecast is a tad lower than the previous one. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 20/0900Z 17.0N 130.1W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 20/1800Z 17.6N 130.5W 45 KT 50 MPH 24H 21/0600Z 17.9N 131.2W 45 KT 50 MPH 36H 21/1800Z 17.9N 132.0W 45 KT 50 MPH 48H 22/0600Z 17.4N 133.0W 45 KT 50 MPH 72H 23/0600Z 16.5N 135.0W 45 KT 50 MPH 96H 24/0600Z 17.4N 136.9W 45 KT 50 MPH 120H 25/0600Z 18.3N 137.7W 40 KT 45 MPH $$ Forecaster Cangialosi

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