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Tropical Storm Karen Forecast Discussion Number 3

2019-09-22 22:37:57| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 500 PM AST Sun Sep 22 2019 ZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM Tropical Storm Karen Discussion Number 3 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122019 500 PM AST Sun Sep 22 2019 The convective structure of Karen has continued to lose organization this afternoon, with the center becoming exposed to the north and northwest of the primary convective band. An Air Force Reconnaissance aircraft investigating the storm has found a well-defined circulation, and flight-level and SFMR winds to support an intensity of around 30 kt. The plane, however, has not fully sampled the storm so the initial intensity remains 35 kt which is between the wind speeds indicated in earlier ASCAT data and the recent in situ observations. The upper-level environment ahead of Karen is forecast to remain unfavorable with the global models and SHIPS guidance predicting an increase in northeasterly shear by Monday. This is expected to prevent the storm from strengthening, and Karen may even have trouble maintaining tropical cyclone status while it moves over the eastern Caribbean Sea. After the system moves north of Puerto Rico around midweek, it is forecast to reach more favorable upper-level conditions, and the NHC intensity forecast again calls for strengthening later in the forecast period. The new intensity forecast, however, is slightly more conservative than the previous one at days 3-5, and is a little above the latest intensity consensus (IVCN) model). The tropical storm is moving west-northwestward or 295/11 kt. The track forecast philosophy is unchanged from earlier today. Karen should turn northwestward, and then northward during the next day or so as it begins to respond to a weakness in the subtropical ridge over the western Atlantic. This motion should bring the center of Karen over Puerto Rico or the Virgin Islands on Tuesday. By late in the forecast period, the dynamical models build a strong deep-layer ridge over the southeast United States that extends northeastward over the western Atlantic. This pattern is likely to cause Karen to slow its northward progression by days 4 and 5. The track guidance remains in very good agreement, and only slight adjustments to the previous official forecast were required. Key Messages: 1. Tropical-storm-force winds and heavy rainfall will continue to affect the southern Windward Islands through tonight. 2. Karen is forecast to approach Puerto Rico, and the U.S. and British Virgin Islands on Tuesday, and a tropical storm watch has been issued. Tropical-storm-force winds, heavy rainfall, and flash flooding is possible on these islands. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 22/2100Z 12.9N 62.7W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 23/0600Z 13.7N 63.8W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 23/1800Z 14.9N 64.8W 35 KT 40 MPH 36H 24/0600Z 16.3N 65.4W 35 KT 40 MPH 48H 24/1800Z 18.0N 65.9W 35 KT 40 MPH 72H 25/1800Z 21.5N 65.7W 40 KT 45 MPH 96H 26/1800Z 24.3N 65.5W 45 KT 50 MPH 120H 27/1800Z 26.0N 66.3W 50 KT 60 MPH $$ Forecaster Brown NNNN

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Tropical Storm Jerry Forecast Discussion Number 22

2019-09-22 22:37:13| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 500 PM AST Sun Sep 22 2019 000 WTNT45 KNHC 222037 TCDAT5 Tropical Storm Jerry Discussion Number 22 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL102019 500 PM AST Sun Sep 22 2019 Jerry continues to struggle to become better organized in an environment of moderate westerly vertical shear. The low-level center is near the western side of the main area of deep convection, and the overall cloud pattern remains rather ragged-looking. Flight-level, SFMR-observed, and Doppler wind data from a NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate that the intensity remains near 55 kt. The dynamical guidance shows that the shear will remain rather strong throughout much of the forecast period, so the official forecast shows little change in strength for the next couple of days followed by gradual weakening. This is a little above the intensity model consensus. The motion is still north-northwestward or 345/8 kt. Jerry continues to move through a weakness in the subtropical ridge. In a couple of days, a mid-latitude trough moving off the northeast U.S. coast should cause the storm to turn north-northeastward to northeastward with a gradual increase in forward speed in the latter part of the forecast period, Jerry is likely to move east-northeastward at a faster speed, following the mid-level westerly flow. The official forecast is a bit slower than the previous one and leans toward the corrected dynamical model consensus, HCCA. Key Messages: 1. The risk of tropical-storm-force winds on Bermuda is increasing, with Jerry forecast to pass near the island Tuesday night and Wednesday. It is too soon to determine what impacts the system may have on Bermuda, but interests there should monitor the progress of Jerry. A Tropical Storm Watch could be issued tonight for Bermuda. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 22/2100Z 26.7N 66.9W 55 KT 65 MPH 12H 23/0600Z 27.7N 67.4W 55 KT 65 MPH 24H 23/1800Z 29.0N 67.9W 55 KT 65 MPH 36H 24/0600Z 30.4N 68.3W 55 KT 65 MPH 48H 24/1800Z 31.8N 67.8W 55 KT 65 MPH 72H 25/1800Z 34.4N 63.5W 50 KT 60 MPH 96H 26/1800Z 37.0N 56.5W 50 KT 60 MPH 120H 27/1800Z 38.5N 50.5W 45 KT 50 MPH $$ Forecaster Pasch

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Tropical Storm Kiko Forecast Discussion Number 42

2019-09-22 22:35:14| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 1100 AM HST Sun Sep 22 2019 000 WTPZ43 KNHC 222035 TCDEP3 Tropical Storm Kiko Discussion Number 42 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP132019 1100 AM HST Sun Sep 22 2019 Not much can be added to Kiko after nearly 10 days describing the cyclone. It still consists of a tight circulation of low clouds with intermittent bursts of deep convection. Based on Dvorak estimates the initial intensity is kept at 35 kts. Kiko has the opportunity to strengthen a little bit in one of those burst, but the general trend is for Kiko to weaken and become a remnant low as it crosses the end of our domain. Kiko is moving toward the west-southwest at 6 knots steered by the subtropical ridge and its associated trades. Kiko will continue swinging south of west and north of due west as the subtropical high pulses during the next few days. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 22/2100Z 16.1N 133.9W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 23/0600Z 15.7N 134.8W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 23/1800Z 16.0N 136.2W 35 KT 40 MPH 36H 24/0600Z 17.2N 137.3W 40 KT 45 MPH 48H 24/1800Z 18.5N 138.5W 40 KT 45 MPH 72H 25/1800Z 19.0N 140.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 26/1800Z 18.5N 141.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 27/1800Z 17.5N 142.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Avila

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Tropical Storm Karen Forecast Discussion Number 2

2019-09-22 16:59:37| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 1100 AM AST Sun Sep 22 2019 000 WTNT42 KNHC 221459 TCDAT2 Tropical Storm Karen Discussion Number 2 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122019 1100 AM AST Sun Sep 22 2019 Radar and satellite imagery shows that convection associated with Karen has lost some organization since advisories were initiated early this morning. However, surface observations and a very recently arriving ASCAT data show that the circulation is well-defined, and is currently passing through the southern Windward Islands. Given the current sprawling structure, nearby dry mid-level air, and moderate northwesterly shear, no significant strengthening is expected through 48 hours. In fact, the system may have trouble surviving over the eastern Caribbean Sea as the global models predict an increase in northeasterly upper-level winds over the system on Monday. Once the cyclone moves north of Puerto Rico, the shear is forecast to decrease, and some strengthening is indicated in the official forecast, but this will depend on the structure of the system at that time. At this time, the long range intensity forecast is quite uncertain. The initial motion estimate is 290/11 kt. The track guidance is in good agreement on Karen turning northwestward, and then northward around the southwestern portion of a deep-layer ridge during the next day or two. A northward motion should continue into mid-week as a weakness in the ridge remains over the western Atlantic. After that time, models suggest that another ridge will begin to build over the southeastern U.S. and far western Atlantic which may cause Karen to slow down by the end of the forecast period. The updated NHC track forecast is very close to the previous advisory and lies near the consensus models. A Tropical Storm Watch has been issued for Puerto Rico and the U.S. and British Virgin Islands. Key Messages: 1. Tropical-storm-force winds and heavy rainfall will continue to affect the southern Windward Islands through tonight. 2. Karen is forecast to approach Puerto Rico, and the U.S. and British Virgin Islands on Tuesday, and a tropical storm watch has been issued. Tropical-storm-force winds, heavy rainfall, and flash flooding is possible on these islands. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 22/1500Z 12.5N 61.7W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 23/0000Z 13.1N 63.1W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 23/1200Z 14.2N 64.1W 35 KT 40 MPH 36H 24/0000Z 15.4N 65.0W 35 KT 40 MPH 48H 24/1200Z 16.9N 65.6W 35 KT 40 MPH 72H 25/1200Z 20.7N 65.5W 45 KT 50 MPH 96H 26/1200Z 23.4N 65.3W 50 KT 60 MPH 120H 27/1200Z 25.3N 65.8W 55 KT 65 MPH $$ Forecaster Brown

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Tropical Storm Kiko Forecast Discussion Number 41

2019-09-22 16:52:40| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 500 AM HST Sun Sep 22 2019 000 WTPZ43 KNHC 221452 TCDEP3 Tropical Storm Kiko Discussion Number 41 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP132019 500 AM HST Sun Sep 22 2019 A small area of deep convection has continued to pulsate near the center of Kiko overnight and this morning. The most recent satellite intensity estimates from TAFB and SAB still support winds of 35 kt, and this is used for the advisory intensity. Kiko has a small window of opportunity in which to re-strengthen as it moves over warmer waters and into an environment of lower wind shear within the next 24-36 h. After that time, increasing southwesterly shear and decreasing SSTs should cause weakening and Kiko is again forecast to become a remnant low by 96 hours. Kiko is moving southwestward at 7 kt. There has been no change to the track forecast reasoning for this advisory. Kiko should continue southwestward today, before turning westward, and then northwestward Monday and Tuesday as a mid-latitude trough cuts off to the northwest of the cyclone. After Kiko weakens to a remnant low, it should turn southwestward once again as it is steered by the low-level flow. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 22/1500Z 16.5N 133.5W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 23/0000Z 15.9N 134.4W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 23/1200Z 15.8N 135.6W 35 KT 40 MPH 36H 24/0000Z 16.6N 136.7W 40 KT 45 MPH 48H 24/1200Z 17.9N 137.8W 40 KT 45 MPH 72H 25/1200Z 19.4N 139.5W 30 KT 35 MPH 96H 26/1200Z 18.7N 140.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 27/1200Z 17.5N 141.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Brown

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