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Tropical Storm Lorenzo Forecast Discussion Number 4
2019-09-23 22:33:59| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 PM AST Mon Sep 23 2019 000 WTNT43 KNHC 232033 TCDAT3 Tropical Storm Lorenzo Discussion Number 4 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132019 500 PM AST Mon Sep 23 2019 Lorenzo is steadily getting better organized. Visible imagery before sunset showed that the tropical storm has developed extensive banding that wraps about 3/4 of the way around the circulation. An 1836 SSMIS overpass also shows this banding, but indicated that the tropical storm has not developed a tight inner core. Satellite intensity estimates range from 35 to 47 kt, and the intensity of the system has been increased to 40 kt. All indications are that Lorenzo is in a favorable environment for strengthening, and all of the guidance continues to forecast that it will become a hurricane during the next few days, perhaps as soon as tomorrow. In fact, the SHIPS Rapid Intensification Index shows a 45 percent chance of a 25 kt or greater increase in Lorenzo's winds during the next 24 hours. Since the tropical storm doesn't have a tight inner-core yet, the NHC forecast isn't quite as bullish, but still shows steady strengthening, and Lorenzo could become a major hurricane later this week. The tropical storm is moving steadily westward with an initial motion of 275/14. The new NHC track forecast is essentially just an update of the previous one, and no substantial changes were made. Lorenzo will likely move generally westward to west-northwestward at a similar forward speed for the next few days, before turning northwestward over the weekend. The global models are in very good agreement on this scenario, but do differ on how soon Lorenzo will turn northwestward. The NHC forecast is based primarily on HCCA, and is on the left side of the guidance envelope. This is also closer to the ECMWF and UKMET forecasts which delay the start of Lorenzo's recurvature a little more than the GFS and its derived models. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 23/2100Z 11.3N 25.5W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 24/0600Z 11.7N 27.5W 50 KT 60 MPH 24H 24/1800Z 12.4N 30.2W 60 KT 70 MPH 36H 25/0600Z 13.1N 33.0W 70 KT 80 MPH 48H 25/1800Z 13.6N 35.7W 75 KT 85 MPH 72H 26/1800Z 15.4N 40.7W 85 KT 100 MPH 96H 27/1800Z 18.3N 43.8W 95 KT 110 MPH 120H 28/1800Z 21.5N 46.5W 100 KT 115 MPH $$ Forecaster Zelinsky
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Tropical Storm Jerry Forecast Discussion Number 26
2019-09-23 22:32:26| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 PM AST Mon Sep 23 2019 000 WTNT45 KNHC 232032 TCDAT5 Tropical Storm Jerry Discussion Number 26 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL102019 500 PM AST Mon Sep 23 2019 The low-level center of Jerry became fully exposed to the west of the convection earlier today. Later, however, new convection formed near or just north of the center. The storm continues to be affected by strong westerly shear associated with a sharp upper-level trough over the southwestern Atlantic. The current intensity estimate remains 55 kt, which is consistent with data from an earlier ASCAT overpass. The dynamical guidance shows only a brief relaxation of the shear over the next several days, and the ambient air mass becomes quite dry in 3 to 5 days. Therefore, slow but steady weakening is forecast. This is close to the latest simple and corrected intensity model consensus predictions. Jerry has slowed its forward speed today and the motion is now just 5 kt toward the north-northwest. The tropical cyclone should continue to move through a weakness in the subtropical ridge tonight, and then turn toward the north and northeast under the influence of a mid-tropospheric trough moving off the northeast U.S. coast. In 2 to 4 days, Jerry is expected to move just north of east while embedded in nearly zonal flow. By the end of the forecast period, some of the models now show a slightly south of east motion as the cyclone moves along the northeast periphery of a subtropical anticyclone. The official track forecast is slower than the previous one, especially during the latter part of the period. This is fairly close to the latest corrected consensus guidance, HCCA. Key Messages: 1. Tropical-storm-force winds are expected on Bermuda by late Tuesday. Large swells are also expected to affect the coast of Bermuda during the next few days. These swells could cause life-threatening rip currents. See products issued by the Bermuda Weather Service for more information. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 23/2100Z 28.4N 68.3W 55 KT 65 MPH 12H 24/0600Z 29.6N 68.6W 55 KT 65 MPH 24H 24/1800Z 30.9N 68.4W 50 KT 60 MPH 36H 25/0600Z 32.1N 66.8W 50 KT 60 MPH 48H 25/1800Z 33.3N 64.0W 45 KT 50 MPH 72H 26/1800Z 35.0N 58.0W 45 KT 50 MPH 96H 27/1800Z 36.0N 53.5W 40 KT 45 MPH 120H 28/1800Z 35.0N 50.0W 35 KT 40 MPH $$ Forecaster Pasch
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Tropical Storm Kiko Forecast Discussion Number 46
2019-09-23 22:32:00| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1100 AM HST Mon Sep 23 2019 000 WTPZ43 KNHC 232031 TCDEP3 Tropical Storm Kiko Discussion Number 46 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP132019 1100 AM HST Mon Sep 23 2019 Not only does Kiko refuse to go away, but satellite images indicate that the cyclone is strengthening. Recent microwave images reveal that the inner core of the storm is a little better organized than it was earlier, and accordingly, the latest satellite intensity estimates have increased this cycle. A blend of the objective and subjective satellite estimates yield an intensity of about 50 kt. Hopefully ASCAT data will provide more information about the cyclone's intensity and size later today. Kiko is moving west-northwestward at 7 kt. A turn to the northwest is expected to occur by tonight, with that motion continuing through Tuesday as the system moves in the flow between a mid-level ridge to the northeast and a mid- to upper-level low to its west. On Wednesday, Kiko is expected to turn back to the west or west-southwest as the shallow system moves in the low-level trade winds. The NHC track forecast is largely an update of the previous one and near the middle of the guidance envelope. Based on the current forecast track, Kiko is expected to enter the central Pacific basin in about 36 hours. The tropical storm could strengthen a little more through tonight, but a significant increase in southerly shear and drier air should cause a steady weakening trend to begin on Tuesday. Kiko is expected to weaken to a tropical depression on Wednesday, and it will likely become a remnant low shortly thereafter. The NHC intensity forecast is a little higher than the previous one in the short term, but is otherwise unchanged. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 23/2100Z 15.9N 136.5W 50 KT 60 MPH 12H 24/0600Z 16.9N 137.5W 55 KT 65 MPH 24H 24/1800Z 18.1N 138.9W 50 KT 60 MPH 36H 25/0600Z 19.1N 140.1W 40 KT 45 MPH 48H 25/1800Z 19.5N 141.4W 30 KT 35 MPH 72H 26/1800Z 19.2N 143.8W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 27/1800Z 19.0N 145.2W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 28/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Cangialosi
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Post-Tropical Cyclone Mario Forecast Discussion Number 25
2019-09-23 16:48:51| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 900 AM MDT Mon Sep 23 2019 000 WTPZ44 KNHC 231448 TCDEP4 Post-Tropical Cyclone Mario Discussion Number 25 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP142019 900 AM MDT Mon Sep 23 2019 Mario's quest as a tropical cyclone is over. The low has produced only a few small areas of intermittent convection during the last day or so, but with insufficient organization to be classified as a tropical cyclone. Therefore, Mario is now a remnant low and this is the last advisory. The remnant low will move slowly generally northward or north-northwestward for the next day or so as it slowly spins down. It will likely open up into a trough near the west-central coast of the Baja California peninsula on Tuesday. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 23/1500Z 25.0N 114.3W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 12H 24/0000Z 26.0N 114.7W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 24H 24/1200Z 26.9N 114.4W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 25/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Zelinsky
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Tropical Storm Lorenzo Forecast Discussion Number 3
2019-09-23 16:46:22| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 AM AST Mon Sep 23 2019 000 WTNT43 KNHC 231446 TCDAT3 Tropical Storm Lorenzo Discussion Number 3 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132019 1100 AM AST Mon Sep 23 2019 Yet another tropical storm has formed over the Atlantic, this one over the far eastern portion of the basin. The system has been designated as Tropical Storm Lorenzo based on satellite intensity estimates from TAFB, SAB, and UW-CIMSS, all of which support tropical-storm strength. The initial intensity is set at 35 kt, but its possible this is somewhat conservative since the TAFB classification was a little higher. Recent GMI microwave imagery and ASCAT-C data showed that the low-level center of Lorenzo is on the north side of most of its deep convection. While this disorganized structure may limit how quickly Lorenzo can strengthen in the short-term, the tropical storm is located within a generally favorable environment for intensification. All of the intensity guidance shows Lorenzo becoming a hurricane, but the timing varies from model to model. The official forecast follows the HFIP Corrected Consensus, and shows Lorenzo reaching hurricane status within 48 h. Continued strengthening is forecast thereafter. No noteworthy changes were made to the NHC intensity forecast. The ASCAT and microwave data were very helpful in determining the location of Lorenzo's center and its forward speed. The cyclone has accelerated and the initial motion estimate is now 275/15 kt. Very little adjustment was made to the NHC track forecast. Lorenzo is still forecast to be steered generally westward to west-northwestward to the south of a deep-layer ridge centered over the eastern Atlantic. The cyclone will pass well south and southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands through tonight. A turn toward the northwest is forecast in about 4 days as Lorenzo reaches a break in the ridge. Just like the intensity forecast, the track forecast is based heavily on HCCA. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 23/1500Z 11.1N 24.1W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 24/0000Z 11.5N 26.2W 45 KT 50 MPH 24H 24/1200Z 12.0N 28.9W 50 KT 60 MPH 36H 25/0000Z 12.5N 31.6W 60 KT 70 MPH 48H 25/1200Z 13.1N 34.3W 70 KT 80 MPH 72H 26/1200Z 14.6N 39.4W 85 KT 100 MPH 96H 27/1200Z 17.1N 43.5W 95 KT 110 MPH 120H 28/1200Z 20.5N 47.0W 95 KT 110 MPH $$ Forecaster Zelinsky
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