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Tropical Storm Kiko Forecast Discussion Number 36

2019-09-21 11:00:30| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 200 AM PDT Sat Sep 21 2019 000 WTPZ43 KNHC 210900 TCDEP3 Tropical Storm Kiko Discussion Number 36 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP132019 200 AM PDT Sat Sep 21 2019 The initial intensity remains 55 kt based on recent Dvorak satellite intensity estimates. All of the intensity guidance continues to show quick weakening as the cyclone moves over marginal SSTs and into a drier and slightly more stable environment. The new NHC intensity forecast is similar to the previous advisory, except the intensity has been held steady for the next 36 hours due to forecast very low shear conditions by the GFS and ECMWF models. The initial motion estimate is 360/02 kt. Despite this most recent slow northward jog, the new NHC guidance still shows Kiko turning westward later today, followed by an unusual wave-like motion as mid-level ridge to the north fluctuates in strength during the 5-day period. The new NHC track is close to the latest consensus aids and similar to the previous NHC forecast. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 21/0900Z 18.8N 130.3W 55 KT 65 MPH 12H 21/1800Z 18.6N 131.4W 50 KT 60 MPH 24H 22/0600Z 18.0N 132.5W 50 KT 60 MPH 36H 22/1800Z 17.2N 133.7W 50 KT 60 MPH 48H 23/0600Z 16.7N 134.7W 45 KT 50 MPH 72H 24/0600Z 17.3N 136.6W 40 KT 45 MPH 96H 25/0600Z 18.9N 137.9W 35 KT 40 MPH 120H 26/0600Z 18.6N 139.5W 30 KT 35 MPH $$ Forecaster Stewart

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Tropical Storm Mario Forecast Discussion Number 16

2019-09-21 10:59:34| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 300 AM MDT Sat Sep 21 2019 000 WTPZ44 KNHC 210859 TCDEP4 Tropical Storm Mario Discussion Number 16 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP142019 300 AM MDT Sat Sep 21 2019 Mario has become quite disorganized tonight. Geostationary satellite and microwave images indicate that the low-level center is now located well to the east of the main area of deep convection. This asymmetric cloud pattern is due to about 25 kt of east-northeasterly shear as shown by the SHIPS model. The initial intensity is lowered to 50 kt, using a blend of the Dvorak final T and CI numbers, and this could be generous given its current appearance. Although the strong shear currently affecting Mario is expected to lessen during the next couple of days, the cyclone will be moving into a drier airmass and over decreasing SSTs. Therefore, steady weakening seems likely, and the NHC intensity forecast shows a slightly faster rate of weakening than the previous one. This prediction is in good agreement with the HCCA and IVCN guidance. Mario is expected to become a remnant low in 2 or 3 days when it will be over SSTs of about 24 C, and dissipate by day 4 over very cool waters offshore of the Baja California peninsula. The tropical storm is moving northward, or 350 degrees, at 4 kt. The increasingly shallow system is expected to move northwestward to north-northwestward, following Lorena, with the low-level flow. The track models are in fair agreement, and only minor changes were made to the previous NHC forecast. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 21/0900Z 18.9N 110.3W 50 KT 60 MPH 12H 21/1800Z 19.6N 110.7W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 22/0600Z 20.8N 111.5W 35 KT 40 MPH 36H 22/1800Z 22.3N 112.4W 30 KT 35 MPH 48H 23/0600Z 23.7N 113.4W 25 KT 30 MPH 72H 24/0600Z 25.6N 115.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 25/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Cangialosi

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Hurricane Lorena Forecast Discussion Number 16

2019-09-21 10:57:56| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 300 AM MDT Sat Sep 21 2019 000 WTPZ45 KNHC 210857 TCDEP5 Hurricane Lorena Discussion Number 16 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP152019 300 AM MDT Sat Sep 21 2019 Lorena made landfall over the southeastern portion of Baja California Sur several hours ago, and it has now moved back over the warm waters of the Gulf of California. Around the time Lorena made landfall, an observation near La Ventana, Mexico, reported sustained winds just below hurricane-force and a minimum pressure of 986 mb when it was in the eye of the hurricane. The satellite appearance of the cyclone has degraded some because of the land interaction, and an eye is no longer apparent in geostationary images. The initial intensity for this advisory is set at 65 kt based on the TAFB Dvorak classification. An ASCAT-C pass confirmed that Lorena is a compact hurricane, with its tropical-storm-force winds extending only out to 40 n mi from the center. Lorena has been a challenging system to forecast as the models have not had a good handle on its future track. The models this cycle have all shifted to the east and now show a landfall in mainland Mexico tonight or Sunday. The NHC track forecast has been adjusted to the right to be in better agreement with the latest model solutions, but this forecast still lies on the western side of the guidance envelope. If this model trend continues, additional shifts to the right might be needed. Based on this change, the Government of Mexico has issued a Tropical Storm Warning for a portion of northwestern Mexico. The hurricane is expected to maintain its intensity today as it remains over the warm waters of the Gulf of California, but a pronounced increase in southwesterly shear and land interaction with mainland Mexico should cause a quick weakening on Sunday and dissipation is likely to occur on Monday. The NHC intensity forecast is lower than the previous one, but still lies on the high side of the guidance envelope. Key Messages: 1. Regardless of any changes in track, Lorena will produce heavy rain, with life-threatening flash floods possible during the next couple of days in parts of Baja California and northwest Mexico. Moisture associated with Lorena is forecast to bring a chance for heavy rain to the southwest United States late this weekend and early next week. 2. Lorena is forecast to continue to produce hurricane-force winds over a portion of the southern Baja California today, where a Hurricane Warning is in effect. It could also bring hurricane conditions to portions of mainland Mexico tonight where a Hurricane Watch is in effect. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 21/0900Z 24.6N 110.3W 65 KT 75 MPH 12H 21/1800Z 25.8N 110.9W 65 KT 75 MPH 24H 22/0600Z 27.5N 111.5W 60 KT 70 MPH 36H 22/1800Z 28.8N 111.8W 45 KT 50 MPH 48H 23/0600Z 29.9N 112.0W 30 KT 35 MPH 72H 24/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Cangialosi

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Tropical Storm Jerry Forecast Discussion Number 16

2019-09-21 10:55:26| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 500 AM AST Sat Sep 21 2019 000 WTNT45 KNHC 210855 TCDAT5 Tropical Storm Jerry Discussion Number 16 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL102019 500 AM AST Sat Sep 21 2019 Data from an Air Force Reserve reconnaissance mission earlier this morning indicated that Jerry had weakened, with the mid-level eye/center tilted to the east of the low-level center due to some westerly mid-level wind shear. The highest 700-mb flight-level and SFMR surface winds reported were 62 kt and 56 kt, respectively, which supports a lower intensity of about 55 kt. The minimum pressure of 995 mb is based on center dropsonde data of 999 mb with a 38-kt surface wind. Jerry has turned northwestward and the initial motion estimate is now 310/13 kt. Jerry is forecast to continue moving northwestward toward a break in the subtropical ridge today through Sunday, followed by a northward turn on Monday. By Tuesday, a deep-layer trough is expected to capture Jerry and accelerate the cyclone northeastward in the general direction of Bermuda. There remains excellent agreement among the track models on this developing scenario, and the official track lies close to the tightly packed consensus models TVCN, NOAA-HCCA, and FSSE. Jerry is likely to experience fluctuations in intensity during the next 72 hours due to increases/decreases in the vertical wind shear affecting the cyclone. By 96 hours as Jerry moves closer to Bermuda, the cyclone is forecast to come move into the right-rear entrance region of a modest jetstream maximum, not unlike what occurred with former Hurricane Humberto a few days ago. Thus, despite the expected increase in the vertical wind shear to at least 30 kt, re-intensification into a hurricane is forecast similar to a consensus of the global models. Key Messages: 1. Although the core of Jerry is passing north of the northern Leeward Islands, heavy rainfall and flash floods are possible there overnight. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 21/0900Z 21.4N 64.0W 55 KT 65 MPH 12H 21/1800Z 22.7N 65.4W 55 KT 65 MPH 24H 22/0600Z 24.3N 66.7W 60 KT 70 MPH 36H 22/1800Z 26.0N 67.2W 60 KT 70 MPH 48H 23/0600Z 27.3N 67.4W 55 KT 65 MPH 72H 24/0600Z 29.8N 66.9W 60 KT 70 MPH 96H 25/0600Z 33.2N 63.7W 70 KT 80 MPH 120H 26/0600Z 36.7N 60.0W 65 KT 75 MPH $$ Forecaster Stewart

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Hurricane Jerry Forecast Discussion Number 15

2019-09-21 04:59:24| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 1100 PM AST Fri Sep 20 2019 000 WTNT45 KNHC 210259 TCDAT5 Hurricane Jerry Discussion Number 15 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL102019 1100 PM AST Fri Sep 20 2019 Jerry has been displaying a classic bursting convective pattern with a nearly circular CDO that expanded over the circulation since the last advisory. An Air Force Hurricane Hunter mission that just arrived in Jerry indicated that the center is farther northeast than previously estimated, which appears coincident with the location of the most recent bursts of convection. Since subjective and objective Dvorak intensity estimates range from 61 kt to 77 kt, the initial intensity remains 70 kt. This intensity could be adjusted based on what the plane finds while investigating the circulation. The central pressure is estimated to be 993 mb based on the center drop from the plane. The hurricane is still moving quickly west-northwestward with an initial motion of 295/15 kt. The track forecast is fairly straightforward. Jerry is approaching a break in the subtropical ridge, created by a deep-layer trough currently moving across the northwestern Atlantic. This pattern is expected to cause Jerry to gradually recurve around the ridge during the next 5 days, with its forward motion reaching a minimum between 48-72 hours when it moves near the ridge axis. There is very good agreement among the track guidance on this scenario, and the only notable spread is related to the system's forward speed when it accelerates on day 5. The consensus aids are holding tough on a relatively consistent trajectory, so little change was made from the previous official forecast. Dropsonde data from a NOAA G-IV synoptic surveillance mission indicate that anticyclonic flow continues over the hurricane at the 200-mb outflow level (except it's restricted a bit to the west), but 15-25 kt of northeasterly flow is cutting through the circulation just below 250 mb. Despite this flow, Jerry's structure does not appear to have degraded too much. Since the hurricane appears that it will move beneath an upper-level anticyclone in about 24 hours, its intensity may not decrease too much over the next several days. And despite an increase in westerly shear after 48 hours, enhanced upper-level divergence to the east of an upper-level trough could offset the potential for weakening. Accounting for uncertainties, the NHC intensity forecast maintains a fairly steady strength for the entire forecast period, keeping Jerry as a hurricane for the next 5 days. This forecast is close to the HCCA model and the simple consensus aids, but it's notable that it's up to 20 kt lower than the statistical-dynamical models by the end of the forecast period. Key Messages: 1. Although the core of Jerry is passing north of the northern Leeward Islands, heavy rainfall and flash floods are possible there overnight. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 21/0300Z 20.5N 62.8W 70 KT 80 MPH 12H 21/1200Z 21.4N 64.4W 65 KT 75 MPH 24H 22/0000Z 22.6N 66.6W 65 KT 75 MPH 36H 22/1200Z 24.0N 68.1W 65 KT 75 MPH 48H 23/0000Z 25.3N 68.7W 70 KT 80 MPH 72H 24/0000Z 27.9N 68.2W 70 KT 80 MPH 96H 25/0000Z 30.8N 66.3W 65 KT 75 MPH 120H 26/0000Z 34.5N 62.1W 65 KT 75 MPH $$ Forecaster Berg

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