Home › discussion
 

Keywords :   


Tag: discussion

Hurricane Lorena Forecast Discussion Number 15

2019-09-21 04:56:54| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 900 PM MDT Fri Sep 20 2019 000 WTPZ45 KNHC 210256 TCDEP5 Hurricane Lorena Discussion Number 15 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP152019 900 PM MDT Fri Sep 20 2019 The eye of Lorena passed near or over the Cabo Pulmo area of the Baja California peninsula a few hours ago and is currently located just off of the east coast of the peninsula east-southeast of La Paz. Satellite imagery indicates that the hurricane remains well organized, with cold eyewall cloud tops surrounding a cloud-filled eye. Based on the land interaction that has occurred since the last advisory, the initial intensity is lowered to a possibly conservative 70 kt. Lorena has continued to move to the right of the previous forecast track, and the initial motion is now 330/7. The hurricane is mostly being steered by a mid- to upper-level ridge over northern Mexico, and it is moving toward a break in the ridge caused by a large mid- to upper-level trough over the western United States. This combination should steer Lorena generally north-northwestward for the next 2-3 days. The track guidance has continued to shift to the right since the last advisory. As a result, the new forecast track has also shifted and now calls for the center of Lorena to move up the length of the Gulf of California. However, the GFS, the old version of the GFS, and the ECMWF are all to the right of the current track, with these models forecasting a more northward motion into mainland Mexico. Thus, additional adjustments to the forecast track may be required on subsequent advisories. The new forecast track requires significant changes to the watches and warnings for the Baja California peninsula and northwestern mainland Mexico. Lorena should spend another 24-36 h over the warm waters of the Gulf of California in light to moderate shear conditions. The intensity guidance does not show much strengthening during this time, and the official forecast follows the guidance. However, it would not be a surprise if Lorena strengthened a little given the current structure. After that, the cyclone should encounter strong shear which would likely cause steady to even rapid weakening, and the intensity forecast has the system weakening to a remnant low as it reaches the northern end of the Gulf of California. If the cyclone makes an earlier landfall in mainland Mexico, it will likely dissipate faster than currently forecast. Key Messages: 1. Regardless of any changes in track, Lorena will produce heavy rain, with life-threatening flash floods possible this weekend in parts of Baja California and northwest Mexico. Moisture associated with Lorena is forecast to bring a chance for heavy rain to the southwest United States from late this weekend into early next week. 2. Lorena is forecast to bring hurricane-force winds to a portion of the southern Baja California peninsula through tonight, where a Hurricane Warning is in effect. It could also bring hurricane conditions to portions of mainland Mexico where a Hurricane Watch has been issued. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 21/0300Z 24.0N 109.7W 70 KT 80 MPH 12H 21/1200Z 25.0N 110.5W 70 KT 80 MPH 24H 22/0000Z 26.6N 111.3W 70 KT 80 MPH 36H 22/1200Z 28.1N 112.1W 65 KT 75 MPH 48H 23/0000Z 29.4N 112.8W 50 KT 60 MPH 72H 24/0000Z 31.5N 113.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 25/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Beven

Tags: number discussion forecast hurricane

 

Tropical Storm Mario Forecast Discussion Number 15

2019-09-21 04:42:29| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 900 PM MDT Fri Sep 20 2019 000 WTPZ44 KNHC 210242 TCDEP4 Tropical Storm Mario Discussion Number 15 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP142019 900 PM MDT Fri Sep 20 2019 Recent geostationary imagery from GOES-17 suggests that the center of Mario is located on the northeastern edge of the convective canopy, which is consistent with the northeasterly shear analyzed by UW-CIMSS and the SHIPS model. The initial intensity remains 55 kt based on the latest Dvorak estimates from TAFB and SAB. The intensity guidance shows steady weakening during the next 72 hours, with Mario expected to spin down due to persistent moderate to strong shear and a track over cooler SSTs by 48 hours. Deep convection should be gone by 72 hours, and remnant low status is shown by that time, with dissipation expected by 96 hours. The new NHC intensity forecast is a little lower than the previous one, but on the high end of the guidance near the LGEM model. The initial motion estimate is a somewhat uncertain 360/04, as the center location has been difficult to pinpoint without any recent microwave imagery. The new NHC track forecast is very similar to the previous one, showing Mario moving north-northwestward and then northwestward in the wake of Lorena, and is close to the HCCA and TVCE consensus. While this forecast keeps the center of the weakening Mario offshore of the Baja California peninsula, some impacts there are still possible. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 21/0300Z 18.4N 110.1W 55 KT 65 MPH 12H 21/1200Z 19.1N 110.4W 50 KT 60 MPH 24H 22/0000Z 20.3N 111.0W 45 KT 50 MPH 36H 22/1200Z 21.8N 111.9W 35 KT 40 MPH 48H 23/0000Z 23.3N 112.9W 30 KT 35 MPH 72H 24/0000Z 26.0N 115.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 25/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Brennan

Tags: number discussion mario storm

 
 

Tropical Storm Kiko Forecast Discussion Number 35

2019-09-21 04:37:54| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 800 PM PDT Fri Sep 20 2019 000 WTPZ43 KNHC 210237 TCDEP3 Tropical Storm Kiko Discussion Number 35 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP132019 800 PM PDT Fri Sep 20 2019 A 2145Z AMSR2 overpass from GCOM-W1 showed a mid-level eye displaced to the northwest of the low-level center. Dvorak classifications were T3.5/55 kt from TAFB and SAB, and the latest SATCON estimate from UW-CIMSS was 56 kt, so the initial intensity is set to 55 kt for this advisory. The above-mentioned AMSR2 pass and a partial SSMIS pass at 2355Z showed the center of Kiko was located farther east than previously estimated. After some adjustments to the working best track, the initial motion estimate is 325/04. The guidance still shows Kiko moving on a wave-like trajectory as mid-level ridge to the north fluctuates in intensity during the forecast period. The new NHC track is close to the latest consensus aids and similar to the previous NHC forecast, but is a little faster, trending toward the speed of the consensus aids. There is a lot of spread in the model guidance, by day 5, with the GFS and ECMWF over 400 n mi apart, so confidence in the details of the track forecast is low especially late in the forecast period. All of the intensity guidance shows quick weakening with Kiko, as the cyclone moves over marginal SSTs and in a somewhat stable and dry atmospheric environment. The new NHC intensity forecast has been nudged downward, and is near or a little above the latest intensity consensus. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 21/0300Z 18.3N 130.5W 55 KT 65 MPH 12H 21/1200Z 18.3N 131.2W 50 KT 60 MPH 24H 22/0000Z 18.0N 132.4W 45 KT 50 MPH 36H 22/1200Z 17.2N 133.6W 45 KT 50 MPH 48H 23/0000Z 16.6N 134.7W 40 KT 45 MPH 72H 24/0000Z 16.5N 136.5W 40 KT 45 MPH 96H 25/0000Z 18.5N 138.0W 35 KT 40 MPH 120H 26/0000Z 18.5N 139.5W 30 KT 35 MPH $$ Forecaster Brennan

Tags: number discussion storm tropical

 

Hurricane Lorena Forecast Discussion Number 14

2019-09-20 23:02:17| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 300 PM MDT Fri Sep 20 2019 951 WTPZ45 KNHC 202102 TCDEP5 Hurricane Lorena Discussion Number 14 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP152019 300 PM MDT Fri Sep 20 2019 There have been significant changes in this advisory. First, Lorena has developed and eye, and data from an Air Force reconnaissance plane indicate that the initial intensity has increased to 75 kt. However, these winds are occuring within a small area near the center. More importantly, there has been a significant change in the track models, and the guidance envelope as a whole has shifted eastward as a mid-level trough over the western United States deepens and shifts eastward. Consequently, the NHC forecast track, which was previously over the southern portion of the peninsula and then over waters to the west, is now along the spine of the peninsula. This solution should result in weakening as the hurricane interacts with the high terrain. However, if another small shift to the right occurs, the hurricane will be over the warm waters of the Gulf of California and could remain strong or even intensify. Given that another eastward shift is possible as indicated by some global models, the government of Mexico has extended the area of watches and warnings northward along the east coast of the Baja California peninsula and has issued a Tropical Storm Watch along the mainland Mexican coast. For now, the NHC forecast, which in fact is highly uncertain, brings Lorena toward the northwest about 7 or 8 kt during the next couple of days. By then Lorena is expected to be a tropical depression, and after that time it is expected to become a remnant low over the peninsula. However, be ready for another shift to the right or to to the left, depending on the new track guidance. Key Messages: 1. Regardless of any changes in track, Lorena is expected to bring heavy rainfall to the southern Baja California Sur tonight into Saturday, with flash flooding possible. 2. Lorena is forecast to bring hurricane-force winds to a portion of the southern Baja California peninsula today, where a Hurricane Warning is in effect. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 20/2100Z 23.2N 109.3W 75 KT 85 MPH 12H 21/0600Z 23.9N 110.5W 65 KT 75 MPH 24H 21/1800Z 25.5N 111.5W 55 KT 65 MPH 36H 22/0600Z 27.0N 112.3W 40 KT 45 MPH 48H 22/1800Z 28.5N 113.5W 30 KT 35 MPH 72H 23/1800Z 30.0N 115.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 24/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Avila

Tags: number discussion forecast hurricane

 

Hurricane Jerry Forecast Discussion Number 14

2019-09-20 22:53:22| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 500 PM AST Fri Sep 20 2019 000 WTNT45 KNHC 202053 TCDAT5 Hurricane Jerry Discussion Number 14 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL102019 500 PM AST Fri Sep 20 2019 Satellite images indicate that deep convection has re-developed near and northeast of the center, with a new rainband also present in the southwest quadrant. Overall the degradation in satellite seen this morning has stopped, and that trend basically matches the last aircraft data from several hours ago. The initial wind speed is set to 70 kt on this advisory, and another Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft is scheduled to investigate the hurricane tonight. Jerry has been moving a little faster today, west-northwestward at 16 kt, perhaps due to the system becoming a little shallower and feeling the faster low-level flow. There are no significant track changes to the NHC forecast this afternoon. The hurricane's motion should gradually bend to the right and slow down during the next few days while the cyclone is steered around the western flank of a weakening subtropical ridge. At longer range, a mid-latitude trough will likely turn the hurricane northward and northeastward, but how quickly that occurs is an open question. The guidance spread has only increased this afternoon, although the model consensus hasn't changed much, so the NHC forecast will hold the course on this advisory. Northwesterly shear is forecast to persist near Jerry for the next day or so, and further weakening is expected. While the shear might not change much by late this weekend, a combination of very warm water and a more moist mid-level environment could sustain the cyclone and even allow some strengthening afterward. The long-range intensity forecast depends on the mid-latitude trough and whether it is a trough that tends to shear the cyclone, or whether it gives Jerry a baroclinic kick to increase the winds. I'm hesitant to change anything at this point given the huge track spread, so the latest intensity forecast is basically an update of the previous one, near or slightly above the model consensus. Key Messages: 1. Although the core of Jerry is expected to move north of the northern Leeward Islands, heavy rainfall and flash floods are possible there tonight. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 20/2100Z 19.6N 62.0W 70 KT 80 MPH 12H 21/0600Z 20.5N 63.9W 65 KT 75 MPH 24H 21/1800Z 21.8N 65.9W 60 KT 70 MPH 36H 22/0600Z 23.2N 67.5W 60 KT 70 MPH 48H 22/1800Z 24.5N 68.6W 65 KT 75 MPH 72H 23/1800Z 27.0N 68.9W 65 KT 75 MPH 96H 24/1800Z 30.0N 67.5W 65 KT 75 MPH 120H 25/1800Z 33.5N 63.5W 65 KT 75 MPH $$ Forecaster Blake

Tags: number discussion jerry forecast

 

Sites : [345] [346] [347] [348] [349] [350] [351] [352] [353] [354] [355] [356] [357] [358] [359] [360] [361] [362] [363] [364] next »