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Tropical Storm Erick Forecast Discussion Number 9

2019-07-29 16:57:32| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 500 AM HST Mon Jul 29 2019 000 WTPZ41 KNHC 291457 TCDEP1 Tropical Storm Erick Discussion Number 9 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP062019 500 AM HST Mon Jul 29 2019 Conventional IR satellite images suggest that the cloud pattern has not changed significantly during the past several hours, and in fact, it appears that it has deteriorated some. However, recent microwave data reveal the development of an eye, and most likely this feature will soon become apparent on conventional imagery. Based on an average of both UW-CIMSS objective and subjective Dvorak numbers, the initial intensity is kept at 60 kt in this advisory. The environment is currently favorable for intensification, and Erick is expected to become a hurricane at any time soon. The most aggressive intensity models are the corrected consensus HCCA and the FSU Superensemble FSSE which bring Erick to Cat 3 by 2 days, and so does the NHC forecast. By the end of the forecast period, when the cyclone is in the central Pacific region, it should encounter strong westerly shear and weakening should then begin. The official forecast does not depart from the previous one. Erick is moving toward the west or 275 degrees at 15 kt. The cyclone is currently being steered by the easterly flow around the subtropical ridge. The ridge is forecast to weaken slightly, and this pattern should provide a west-northwest motion of the cyclone. In addition, there is no evidence of any sharp turn to the north in any of the track models. The NHC forecast remains unchanged and is basically on top of the multi-model consensus TVCE and the corrected consensus HCCA. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 29/1500Z 12.3N 136.9W 60 KT 70 MPH 12H 30/0000Z 13.0N 139.1W 70 KT 80 MPH 24H 30/1200Z 13.6N 141.8W 85 KT 100 MPH 36H 31/0000Z 14.3N 144.1W 95 KT 110 MPH 48H 31/1200Z 15.0N 146.2W 100 KT 115 MPH 72H 01/1200Z 16.0N 150.5W 80 KT 90 MPH 96H 02/1200Z 16.8N 155.2W 50 KT 60 MPH 120H 03/1200Z 17.5N 159.0W 40 KT 45 MPH $$ Forecaster Avila

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Tropical Storm Flossie Forecast Discussion Number 5

2019-07-29 16:43:32| Tropical Depression LIDIA

Issued at 500 AM HST Mon Jul 29 2019

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Tropical Storm Erick Forecast Discussion Number 8

2019-07-29 10:43:21| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 1100 PM HST Sun Jul 28 2019 000 WTPZ41 KNHC 290842 TCDEP1 Tropical Storm Erick Discussion Number 8 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP062019 1100 PM HST Sun Jul 28 2019 The storm's cloud pattern is becoming better organized and has taken on a comma shape, with very cold cloud tops to at least -80 deg C. There is prominent upper-tropospheric outflow, except over the northeastern quadrant of the circulation. An eye is not yet evident in the imagery, however. Erick's current intensity estimate is set at 60 kt in general agreement with objective Dvorak estimates from UW-CIMSS. The dynamical guidance indicates that the vertical shear will remain below 10 kt for the next 48 hours and SSTs should remain near 28 deg C, which would favor steady strengthening. Additionally, the SHIPS Rapid Intensification Index continues to show a high probability, near 70 percent, of rapid strengthening. Thus the official wind speed forecast shows a significant increase during the next 1 to 2 days, with the system predicted to attain major hurricane status within that time frame. This is in agreement with the corrected consensus, HCCA, and the FSU Superensemble guidance, FSSE, along with the HWRF model simulation. Erick continues to move westward, or around 270/14 kt. A mid-level ridge is predicted to remain to the north of the tropical cyclone over the next several days which should maintain a mainly westward track. The track models suggest a slight bend toward the west-northwest in 36-72 hours, but with no substantial northward excursions. The new official track forecast is quite similar to the previous one, and is a little south of the latest dynamical model consensus. It should be noted that the latest ECMWF model run shows a track that is even a little farther to the south. The wind radii have been adjusted based on data from a recent ASCAT-C overpass which depicted a slightly larger storm than previously estimated. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 29/0900Z 11.7N 134.5W 60 KT 70 MPH 12H 29/1800Z 12.2N 136.7W 70 KT 80 MPH 24H 30/0600Z 12.8N 139.7W 85 KT 100 MPH 36H 30/1800Z 13.5N 142.3W 95 KT 110 MPH 48H 31/0600Z 14.1N 144.6W 100 KT 115 MPH 72H 01/0600Z 15.3N 148.9W 85 KT 100 MPH 96H 02/0600Z 16.0N 153.5W 60 KT 70 MPH 120H 03/0600Z 16.9N 158.2W 40 KT 45 MPH $$ Forecaster Pasch

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Tropical Storm Flossie Forecast Discussion Number 4

2019-07-29 10:40:25| Tropical Depression LIDIA

Issued at 1100 PM HST Sun Jul 28 2019

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Tropical Storm Erick Forecast Discussion Number 7

2019-07-29 04:51:20| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 500 PM HST Sun Jul 28 2019 000 WTPZ41 KNHC 290251 TCDEP1 Tropical Storm Erick Discussion Number 7 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP062019 500 PM HST Sun Jul 28 2019 There have been some significant changes with Erick during the past several hours. First, as foreshadowed in the previous advisory, microwave and scatterometer data indicate that the center has re-formed under a very strong convective cluster farther to the south. Second, the overall cloud pattern has become much better organized, with a CDO-like feature forming near the center and a notable increase in curved banding in the southern and western quadrants of the storm. Erick appears to be in the beginning stages of rapid intensification, and the intensity will be increased to 55 kt for this advisory based on a consensus of estimates from TAFB, SAB and the CIMSS ADT. This is one of these rare forecasts where it is difficult to find a reason not to predict rapid intensification. Erick is expected to be in an environment of very low vertical wind shear and warm water during the next 48 hours. While earlier forecasts were concerned about mid-level dry air, the southward reformation will probably help insulate the storm from that influence, along with the very low shear limiting mixing. Although there is no low-level ring present yet in the latest 37 gHz microwave channel, this signal can be both before and/or concurrent with rapid strengthening. Notably, the SHIPS-rapid intensification index is showing about a 70 percent chance of both a 30-kt increase during the next 24 hours and a 55-kt rise in 48 hours. It's pretty hard to ignore the signal from that model, considering these are values you might see a few times a year. In addition, dynamical models have also come up sharply from the previous cycle, and three typically reliable models now show Erick becoming a major hurricane. Thus, the new NHC intensity forecast is considerably higher than the previous one through 48 hours, at the upper-end of the guidance envelope, and just a little above the corrected-consensus models. The forecast after that time required little adjustment, as a combination of higher shear and dry air aloft should contribute to steady weakening by the end of the forecast period. After accounting for the center re-formation, the initial motion estimate is 270/14 kt. A gradual turn to the west-northwest is forecast during the next couple of days as a ridge weakens to the north, then a turn back to the west is anticipated due to Erick weakening and the ridge slightly strengthening. Model guidance remains in very good agreement this evening, with no significant outlier solutions. While the new track forecast has been shifted southwest of the previous one, it is mostly due to the center re-formation, and the forecast continues to be close to the eastern Pacific model consensus TVCE. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 29/0300Z 11.7N 133.1W 55 KT 65 MPH 12H 29/1200Z 11.9N 135.3W 65 KT 75 MPH 24H 30/0000Z 12.5N 138.2W 80 KT 90 MPH 36H 30/1200Z 13.2N 141.0W 90 KT 105 MPH 48H 31/0000Z 13.9N 143.6W 100 KT 115 MPH 72H 01/0000Z 15.1N 147.9W 85 KT 100 MPH 96H 02/0000Z 16.0N 152.5W 55 KT 65 MPH 120H 03/0000Z 16.5N 157.3W 40 KT 45 MPH $$ Forecaster Blake

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