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Tropical Storm Ernesto Forecast Discussion Number 12
2018-08-18 04:32:28| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 PM AST Fri Aug 17 2018 221 WTNT45 KNHC 180232 TCDAT5 Tropical Storm Ernesto Discussion Number 12 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052018 1100 PM AST Fri Aug 17 2018 Organized deep convection associated with Ernesto has dissipated after the issuance of the last advisory. If it does not return, which seems unlikely with the system moving over SSTs of 16C or less, Ernesto should become a post-tropical cyclone by early Saturday. Geostationary and microwave imagery along with ASCAT data indicate that the mid-level circulation has begun to separate from the low-level center. A partial ASCAT-A pass from 2148 UTC showed a large area of 35-40 kt winds south and southeast of the center, and on that basis the initial intensity remains 40 kt. Ernesto is forecast to weaken only a little during the next 24 hours while it approaches Ireland and merges with a frontal zone Saturday night. The post-tropical cyclone's circulation should dissipate while it moves across Ireland and portions of the United Kingdom by early Sunday. Ernesto is racing east-northeastward at 30 kt and this motion should continue until dissipation. The new NHC forecast is close to the previous one and lies near the middle of the tightly clustered guidance envelope. The post-tropical cyclone or its remnants are expected to spread gusty winds and locally heavy rain over portions of Ireland and the United Kingdom Saturday night and early Sunday. Information on rainfall and wind forecasts for Ireland can be found in products issued by Met Eireann at www.met.ie and for the United Kingdom in products issued by the United Kingdom Met Office at www.metoffice.gov/uk. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 18/0300Z 50.4N 25.6W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 18/1200Z 52.3N 18.8W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 24H 19/0000Z 54.1N 10.0W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 36H 19/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Brennan
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Hurricane Lane Forecast Discussion Number 12
2018-08-17 22:33:27| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 PM PDT Fri Aug 17 2018 131 WTPZ44 KNHC 172033 TCDEP4 Hurricane Lane Discussion Number 12 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP142018 200 PM PDT Fri Aug 17 2018 A series of microwave overpasses and conventional visible/infrared imagery show that Lane's inner core continues to develop rapidly. The eye in the visible presentation has begun to clear out, and the lower frequency microwave images show a completely enclosed, solid inner convective ring. The subjective and objective T-numbers from TAFB, SAB, and UW-CIMSS, respectively, support increasing the initial intensity to 95 kt. The intensity forecast philosophy has not changed from 6 hours ago, and Lane is still predicted to quickly strengthen to major hurricane intensity later tonight, and has the potential to become a category 4 hurricane in 24 hours. The environment certainly appears favorable enough for this 24-hour trend to occur and the hurricane regional and statistical intensity guidance reflect strengthening, but the NHC forecast is much higher than the NOAA HCCA and the IVCN consensus models during the first 24 hours. Beyond 36 hours, Lane should begin to gradually weaken in response to increasing westerly shear. The NHC forecast is similar to the previous advisory and is a blend of HCCA and IVCN at these times. The initial motion continues to be westward or 275/14 kt. Lane is forecast to move south of a subtropical ridge in either a westward or west-northwestward direction over the next 5 days. Little change was made to the official track forecast, with only minor along-track adjustments after 72 hours, and the NHC forecast is basically a compromise of the various consensus models. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 17/2100Z 11.5N 134.1W 95 KT 110 MPH 12H 18/0600Z 11.7N 136.4W 110 KT 125 MPH 24H 18/1800Z 12.2N 139.3W 120 KT 140 MPH 36H 19/0600Z 12.9N 141.8W 120 KT 140 MPH 48H 19/1800Z 13.5N 144.1W 110 KT 125 MPH 72H 20/1800Z 14.4N 148.3W 95 KT 110 MPH 96H 21/1800Z 14.9N 152.3W 80 KT 90 MPH 120H 22/1800Z 15.3N 156.2W 70 KT 80 MPH $$ Forecaster Roberts
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Tropical Storm Ernesto Forecast Discussion Number 11
2018-08-17 22:32:53| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 PM AST Fri Aug 17 2018 478 WTNT45 KNHC 172032 TCDAT5 Tropical Storm Ernesto Discussion Number 11 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052018 500 PM AST Fri Aug 17 2018 Ernesto's cloud pattern has deteriorated since this morning with deep convection decreasing in coverage and becoming a little more separated from the low-level center. However, there is still enough organized convection to maintain the system as a tropical cyclone a little longer. The most recent satellite estimates and earlier ASCAT data still support an initial intensity of 40 kt. Ernesto will continue moving over colder waters and is expected to become post-tropical this evening. Little change in strength is predicted during the next 12-24 hours while the system moves over quickly across the northern Atlantic. Global models indicate that the cyclone will weaken as it approaches Ireland Saturday night and the system should merge with a frontal zone located across the central portions of the United Kingdom and Ireland by Sunday morning. The cyclone is racing northeastward at about 27 kt. Now that the system is embedded within the mid-latitude westerlies, a rapid northeastward or east-northeastward motion should continue until dissipation occurs. There has been little change to the track guidance or the official forecast which lies near the middle of the tightly clustered guidance envelope. The post-tropical cyclone or its remnants are expected to spread gusty winds and locally heavy rain over portions of Ireland and the United Kingdom Saturday night and early Sunday. Information on rainfall and wind forecasts for Ireland can be found in products issued by Met Eireann at www.met.ie and for the United Kingdom in products issued by the United Kingdom Met Office at www.metoffice.gov/uk. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 17/2100Z 49.1N 29.8W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 18/0600Z 51.1N 23.2W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 24H 18/1800Z 53.2N 14.2W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 36H 19/0600Z 54.8N 5.3W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 48H 19/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Brown
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Hurricane Lane Forecast Discussion Number 11
2018-08-17 17:26:23| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 AM PDT Fri Aug 17 2018 190 WTPZ44 KNHC 171525 CCA TCDEP4 Hurricane Lane Discussion Number 11...Corrected NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP142018 800 AM PDT Fri Aug 17 2018 Lane's cloud pattern has improved significantly this morning, and the cyclone is currently undergoing rapid intensification. A warming ragged eye is now evident in GOES-15/16 IR BD-curve enhancement, and a white curved band with cold tops of -70 to -75C wraps about 90% around the cyclone's circulation. The Dvorak satellite intensity estimates from TAFB and SAB, and the objective analysis support an increase of the wind speed to 85 kt for this advisory. Lane appears poised for further rapid strengthening during the next 24 hours. Impressive outflow in all quadrants, warm SSTs, and the absence of earlier noted dry air intrusion all point to this scenario. The peak intensity based on the hurricane models and the statistical guidance is forecast to be within the next 24-36 hours. Afterward, the thermodynamic environment looks a little less conducive and the large-scale models as well as the statistical intensity guidance agree that increasing westerly vertical shear will induce a slow weakening trend. The official forecast is above the guidance during the first 36 hours, but is close to the HMON hurricane model, and is hedged toward a blend of the HCCA and IVCN intensity consensus models through the remaining portion of the forecast. The initial motion is estimated to be nearly due west, or 275/14 kt. Lane should continue to move south of a subtropical ridge in either a westward or west-northwestward direction through the entire forecast period. The NHC forecast is basically an update of the previous one with just a slight adjustment to the south, and is very close to the TVCN and NOAA HCCA consensus models. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 17/1500Z 11.2N 132.9W 85 KT 100 MPH 12H 18/0000Z 11.6N 135.0W 100 KT 115 MPH 24H 18/1200Z 12.1N 137.9W 115 KT 130 MPH 36H 19/0000Z 12.6N 140.7W 115 KT 130 MPH 48H 19/1200Z 13.3N 143.3W 105 KT 120 MPH 72H 20/1200Z 14.3N 147.6W 95 KT 110 MPH 96H 21/1200Z 14.8N 151.8W 90 KT 105 MPH 120H 22/1200Z 15.3N 155.9W 80 KT 90 MPH $$ Forecaster Roberts
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Tropical Storm Ernesto Forecast Discussion Number 10
2018-08-17 16:42:21| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 AM AST Fri Aug 17 2018 719 WTNT45 KNHC 171442 TCDAT5 Tropical Storm Ernesto Discussion Number 10 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052018 1100 AM AST Fri Aug 17 2018 Ernesto is somewhat surprisingly maintaining convection and well-defined banding features over the northern and eastern portions of its circulation despite being over SSTs of 20-21C. The cloud tops have warmed within the past couple of hours perhaps an indication that Ernesto is finally beginning to lose its tropical characteristics. A blend of the latest satellite intensity estimates still supports an initial wind speed of 40 kt. Ernesto will be moving over progressively colder waters during the next 12-24 hours and should become post-tropical later today or tonight. Little change in strength is expected during the next day or so while the post-tropical cyclone cyclone moves quickly across the north Atlantic. The cyclone is forecast to weaken slightly as it approaches Ireland and merges with a frontal zone that is expected to be located across the central portions of the United Kingdom and Ireland Saturday night and early Sunday. The tropical storm is moving northeastward at 26 kt. A slightly faster northeastward to east-northeastward motion is expected during the next 36 hours as Ernesto remains embedded within the mid-latitude westerly flow. The models continue to be in good agreement, and the NHC track is close to the various consensus aids. The post-tropical cyclone or its remnants are expected to spread gusty winds and locally heavy rain over portions of Ireland and the United Kingdom Saturday night and early Sunday. Information on rainfall and wind forecasts for Ireland can be found in products issued by Met Eireann at www.met.ie and for the United Kingdom in products issued by the United Kingdom Met Office at www.metoffice.gov/uk. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 17/1500Z 47.1N 32.9W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 18/0000Z 49.3N 27.0W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 24H 18/1200Z 51.6N 18.6W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 36H 19/0000Z 53.5N 10.2W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 48H 19/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Brown
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