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Tropical Storm Miriam Forecast Discussion Number 4

2018-08-27 04:44:01| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 800 PM PDT Sun Aug 26 2018 372 WTPZ45 KNHC 270243 TCDEP5 Tropical Storm Miriam Discussion Number 4 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP152018 800 PM PDT Sun Aug 26 2018 The overall cloud pattern of Miriam has continued to gradually improve this evening. However, light northerly shear of about 10 kt, as analyzed by UW-CIMSS, seems to be preventing the cyclone from strengthening at a more rapid pace. Earlier ASCAT data and a more recent partial AMSR overpass indicated that the low-level center of Miriam is slightly displaced to the northwest of most of the deep convection, but is still well-embedded within the cirrus canopy. A consensus of objective and subjective satellite intensity estimates suggests that Miriam has strengthened a little since the last advisory, so the initial intensity has been increased to 45 kt. The tropical storm is still moving westward at around 12 kt, and all indications are that this motion will continue for the next few days. By day 4, Miriam should turn northward as it reaches a break in the subtropical ridge created by an extensive mid- to upper-level low located over the central North Pacific. The track guidance is in good agreement on this general scenario, but still differs on the exact timing and location of the northward turn. The NHC forecast therefore remains near the middle of the guidance envelope, and is essentially a blend of the HCCA and TVCX consensus aids and the previous forecast. Steady strengthening is still likely for the next day or two. While Miriam's structure does not appear to be conducive for rapid intensification at the moment, this could change quickly and with little warning due to the small size of the cyclone's inner-core. The model spread increases from 36 h onward, with the dynamical models indicating continued intensification to major hurricane strength, while the statistical guidance is much lower. Regardless of Miriam's peak intensity, by the end of the forecast, steady weakening is likely as Miriam encounters lower SSTs and higher shear. The NHC forecast continues to favor the higher dynamical models for the first couple of days, and closely follows the intensity consensus after that. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 27/0300Z 13.8N 127.9W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 27/1200Z 13.9N 129.7W 55 KT 65 MPH 24H 28/0000Z 13.7N 131.9W 65 KT 75 MPH 36H 28/1200Z 13.8N 134.0W 80 KT 90 MPH 48H 29/0000Z 13.9N 136.0W 90 KT 105 MPH 72H 30/0000Z 14.3N 139.5W 90 KT 105 MPH 96H 31/0000Z 16.8N 141.3W 80 KT 90 MPH 120H 01/0000Z 21.0N 141.5W 65 KT 75 MPH $$ Forecaster Zelinsky

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Tropical Storm Miriam Forecast Discussion Number 3

2018-08-26 22:31:30| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 200 PM PDT Sun Aug 26 2018 810 WTPZ45 KNHC 262031 TCDEP5 Tropical Storm Miriam Discussion Number 3 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP152018 200 PM PDT Sun Aug 26 2018 Miriam continues to gradually become better organized. The latest visible satellite images show a well-defined curved band that wraps about three-quarters of the way around the center. Despite the improvement in organization, very recent ASCAT passes show maximum winds of about 35 kt. Therefore, the initial wind speed is held at 40 kt as a compromise between the ASCAT data and the higher Dvorak-based estimates. The tropical storm is moving westward at about 12 kt. This westward motion should continue during the next few days while a deep-layer ridge remains anchored to the north of the tropical cyclone. After that time, the storm is forecast to turn to the northwest and then the north as a mid- to upper-level low causes a significant break in the subtropical ridge. Although the models agree on this scenario, there are some differences in where and when Miriam will make the northward turn. The NHC track forecast lies near the middle of the guidance envelope, near the consensus aids. Steady strengthening is likely during the next couple of days due to the favorable environmental factors of low wind shear, high levels of moisture, and warm SSTs of 27-28 deg C. The latest intensity models all show Miriam becoming a hurricane, and the HWRF model shows the cyclone reaching major hurricane strength. The NHC intensity forecast continues to lean toward the higher end of the model guidance, and it is in best agreement with HFIP Corrected Consensus Approach model. By the end of the forecast period, when Miriam begins gaining latitude, slow weakening is expected due to a decrease in SSTs and higher shear. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 26/2100Z 13.6N 126.6W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 27/0600Z 13.6N 128.4W 50 KT 60 MPH 24H 27/1800Z 13.7N 130.6W 65 KT 75 MPH 36H 28/0600Z 13.7N 132.7W 80 KT 90 MPH 48H 28/1800Z 13.7N 134.8W 90 KT 105 MPH 72H 29/1800Z 13.7N 138.7W 90 KT 105 MPH 96H 30/1800Z 15.8N 141.1W 85 KT 100 MPH 120H 31/1800Z 19.7N 141.7W 80 KT 90 MPH $$ Forecaster Cangialosi

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Tropical Storm Miriam Forecast Discussion Number 2

2018-08-26 16:38:56| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 800 AM PDT Sun Aug 26 2018 565 WTPZ45 KNHC 261438 TCDEP5 Tropical Storm Miriam Discussion Number 2 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP152018 800 AM PDT Sun Aug 26 2018 Deep convection associated with the tropical cyclone has continued to become better organized this morning, with a significant increase in banding noted in conventional satellite imagery. An earlier AMSR2 microwave overpass also revealed the increase in banding, but the low-level center was located near the northeastern portion of the main convective mass. A Dvorak satellite intensity estimate of T2.5 (35 k) was the basis for the 1200 UTC synoptic intensity, but with the continued increase in organization, the initial wind speed for this advisory has been set to 40 kt. Miriam is moving westward or 275/11 kt. The tropical storm should remain on a general westward heading during the next few days while it remains to the south of a deep-layer ridge. The orientation of the ridge may shift more west-southwestward within the next day or so, which could steer the tropical storm on a track slightly south of due west. The bulk of the dynamical model guidance has shifted southward, so the NHC forecast track has been adjusted accordingly through the first 3 days. After that time, a weakness in the subtropical ridge between 140W-145W longitude is expected to cause Miriam to turn northwestward, then north-northwestward by the end of the forecast period. The latter portion of the official forecast is similar to the previous advisory and is in best agreement with the HFIP corrected consensus model. The environment ahead of Miriam is expected to remain favorable for strengthening. The tropical storm will be traversing SSTs of 27-28C and within low vertical wind shear conditions. The NHC intensity forecast calls for steady intensification during the next few days and is at the upper-end of the intensity guidance. Although the various rapid intensification prediction techniques are not particularly bullish, perhaps due to the low initial intensity of the cyclone, it would not be surprising if the tropical storm went through a period of rapid intensification within the next couple of days. The NHC intensity forecast is closest to the more aggressive HWRF and HMON dynamical models. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 26/1500Z 13.2N 125.3W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 27/0000Z 13.3N 127.1W 50 KT 60 MPH 24H 27/1200Z 13.5N 129.4W 60 KT 70 MPH 36H 28/0000Z 13.5N 131.5W 70 KT 80 MPH 48H 28/1200Z 13.5N 133.6W 80 KT 90 MPH 72H 29/1200Z 13.5N 137.6W 85 KT 100 MPH 96H 30/1200Z 14.9N 140.5W 90 KT 105 MPH 120H 31/1200Z 18.5N 142.0W 85 KT 100 MPH $$ Forecaster Brown

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Tropical Depression Fifteen-E Forecast Discussion Number 1

2018-08-26 10:42:24| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 200 AM PDT Sun Aug 26 2018 276 WTPZ45 KNHC 260842 TCDEP5 Tropical Depression Fifteen-E Discussion Number 1 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP152018 200 AM PDT Sun Aug 26 2018 Various satellite data over the past several hours, including recent ASCAT scatterometer surface-wind data, indicate that the well-defined low pressure area located about 1000 nmi southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula has become much better organized, and has developed into a tropical depression. A small CDO-like feature has formed over the well-defined center depicted in the ASCAT data, and a recent burst of cold cloud tops of -80C have also developed just west of the center. The initial intensity of 30 kt is based on 0458Z and 0558Z ASCAT wind data, which indicated winds of 28-30 kt were located 35-40 nmi west and southwest of the low-level center. The initial motion estimate is 280/10 kt. The depression is expected to remain south of a strong deep-layer subtropical ridge for the next 96 hours, resulting in a general westward motion at a slightly faster forward speed. By day 5, the cyclone is forecast to move into a break in the ridge created by a broad mid-/upper-level trough that is forecast to dig southward out of the northern Pacific between 140W-145W longitude. The forecast track lies essentially down the middle of the guidance envelope, which is just north of the consensus model TVCE and the GFS model, but south of the ECMWF and UKMET models. The HRWF and HMON models were not being available for the TVCE consensus on this cycle, so some significant adjustments to the track in the next advisory may be required. The cyclone has a radius of maximum winds (RMW) of 35-40 nmi based on the recent ASCAT data. The combination of the modest RMW, low vertical wind shear of less than 10 kt, a very moist mid-level environment, and sea-surface temperatures above 28 deg C, favors steady intensification and even the possibility of rapid strengthening. Since this is the first forecast, however, the intensity forecast is on the conservative side and calls for a climatological increase of one T-number or 20 kt every 24 h for the next 48 hours, which is above all of the intensity guidance except for the Navy COAMPS (CTCI) model. By 96-120 hours, the intensity is leveled off due to possible entrainment of drier air and an increase in southwesterly vertical wind shear. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 26/0900Z 13.3N 124.1W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 26/1800Z 13.5N 126.0W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 27/0600Z 13.7N 128.4W 50 KT 60 MPH 36H 27/1800Z 13.9N 130.6W 60 KT 70 MPH 48H 28/0600Z 14.1N 132.6W 70 KT 80 MPH 72H 29/0600Z 14.3N 136.6W 80 KT 90 MPH 96H 30/0600Z 14.9N 140.1W 90 KT 105 MPH 120H 31/0600Z 17.4N 141.9W 90 KT 105 MPH $$ Forecaster Stewart

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Chromaflo Technologies Participates in \'Ask the Expert\' Discussion, Exhibit at UTECH North America

2018-08-24 13:00:00| Coatings World Breaking News

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