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Tropical Storm Ernesto Forecast Discussion Number 7

2018-08-16 22:34:47| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 500 PM AST Thu Aug 16 2018 307 WTNT45 KNHC 162034 TCDAT5 Tropical Storm Ernesto Discussion Number 7 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052018 500 PM AST Thu Aug 16 2018 Visible and infrared satellite imagery shows that convective banding has increased closer to the center of Ernesto today. The system has also lost much of its outer cloud bands and is no longer co-located with an upper-level low. On this basis, Ernesto is now being classified as a tropical storm. The initial intensity remains 40 kt, which is based on recent satellite estimates and the earlier ASCAT data. Although the cyclone is forecast to move over cooler waters and become post-tropical very soon, the global models deepen the system somewhat due to baroclinic processes. In addition, the expected increase in the cyclone's forward speed is likely to result in an increase in the wind speed. The new NHC intensity forecast calls for slight strengthening over the next 12-24 hours, with little overall change in intensity thereafter. The system is still predicted to merge with a frontal zone as it approaches Ireland and the United Kingdom late Saturday or Saturday night. Ernesto continues to accelerate northeastward and is now moving 045/16 kt. The cyclone should accelerate further while moving northeastward to east-northeastward within the mid-latitude westerlies over the next day or two. The dynamical model guidance remains tightly clustered and little change was made to the previous NHC track forecast. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 16/2100Z 43.0N 41.0W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 17/0600Z 44.9N 37.6W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 24H 17/1800Z 47.7N 31.4W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 36H 18/0600Z 50.2N 23.8W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 48H 18/1800Z 52.0N 15.8W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 72H 19/1800Z...MERGED WITH FRONTAL ZONE $$ Forecaster Brown

Tags: number discussion storm tropical

Tropical Storm Lane Forecast Discussion Number 7

2018-08-16 16:56:12| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 800 AM PDT Thu Aug 16 2018 858 WTPZ44 KNHC 161456 TCDEP4 Tropical Storm Lane Discussion Number 7 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP142018 800 AM PDT Thu Aug 16 2018 Lane appears to be intensifying this morning, with a more symmetric presentation on satellite imagery and pulsing deep convection near the center. A recent SSMI/S microwave pass indicates that an inner core is trying to form, although it isn't well defined yet. The current intensity estimates continue to display a large spread, ranging from the overnight scatterometer data at low-end tropical- storm strength, from hurricane strength in the TAFB Dvorak estimate. The initial wind speed is set to 50 kt with the increased organization, and this remains a low confidence estimate. While so far Lane has only been slowly intensifying, the large-scale environment appears favorable for more significant intensification to occur soon, especially with current signs of a primitive inner core. Thus the wind speed forecast will maintain the quick strengthening from the previous forecast, and there remains a significant chance that rapid intensification will occur during the next few days. The biggest change from yesterday is that more of the global models are indicating that westerly shear could affect Lane in the central Pacific, so more weakening is shown at day 5. Otherwise, the new NHC intensity forecast is very close to the previous one and is on the higher side of the guidance. The initial motion estimate is 275/11. The subtropical ridge to the north of Lane should continue to be the dominant steering mechanism, forcing the tropical cyclone to move westward or west-northwestward for the next several days. While the model spread is low in the short range, it notably increases by days 4/5. The GFS-based guidance is showing Lane move slower than the rest of the guidance, which allows the eastern periphery of the ridge to erode due to an inverted mid-level trough, and consequently a more poleward motion of the cyclone. The ECMWF and UKMET show Lane moving faster and basically missing any influence of that trough, causing the storm to move faster to the west. There are no strong signals pointing me to either solution, so the official forecast follows the trend of the consensus, which ends up slightly west of the previous forecast. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 16/1500Z 10.6N 127.6W 50 KT 60 MPH 12H 17/0000Z 10.8N 129.4W 60 KT 70 MPH 24H 17/1200Z 11.2N 132.1W 75 KT 85 MPH 36H 18/0000Z 11.7N 134.9W 85 KT 100 MPH 48H 18/1200Z 12.2N 137.6W 95 KT 110 MPH 72H 19/1200Z 13.5N 142.7W 105 KT 120 MPH 96H 20/1200Z 14.7N 147.3W 105 KT 120 MPH 120H 21/1200Z 15.3N 151.5W 95 KT 110 MPH $$ Forecaster Blake

Tags: number discussion lane storm

Subtropical Storm Ernesto Forecast Discussion Number 6

2018-08-16 16:52:15| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 1100 AM AST Thu Aug 16 2018 219 WTNT45 KNHC 161452 TCDAT5 Subtropical Storm Ernesto Discussion Number 6 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052018 1100 AM AST Thu Aug 16 2018 Convection developed closer to the center of Ernesto early this morning, suggesting that the system was attempting to make the transition to a tropical cyclone, but that area of convection has weakened within the past couple of hours. Patches of deep convection continue over the outer portion of the circulation, and a very recent ASCAT overpass continues to show a rather large radius of maximum winds, indicating that Ernesto remains a subtropical cyclone. The ASCAT data showed a large area of 35-40 kt winds over the eastern and southeastern portions of the circulation, so the initial wind speed has been increased to 40 kt. Ernesto has likely reached its peak intensity since it will be moving over much cooler SSTs later today, and the cyclone is expected to lose its subtropical characteristics late tonight or early Friday. The post-tropical cyclone should be able to maintain its intensity due in part to its expected fast forward speed over the North Atlantic. The global models indicate that the system will merge with a frontal zone as it approaches Ireland and the United Kingdom late Saturday. Ernesto has turned northeastward and is beginning to accelerate, and is now moving at around 14 kt. The cyclone should be fully embedded within the mid-latitude westerlies within the next 24 hours, and a significantly faster northeastward to east-northeastward motion is expected over the next couple of days. The track guidance continues to be in good agreement, and the new NHC official forecast is essentially an update of the previous advisory. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 16/1500Z 42.0N 43.2W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 17/0000Z 43.9N 40.4W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 17/1200Z 46.7N 35.0W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 36H 18/0000Z 49.5N 28.0W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 48H 18/1200Z 52.0N 19.5W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 72H 19/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Brown

Tags: number discussion storm forecast

Tropical Storm Lane Forecast Discussion Number 6

2018-08-16 10:51:16| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 200 AM PDT Thu Aug 16 2018 755 WTPZ44 KNHC 160851 TCDEP4 Tropical Storm Lane Discussion Number 6 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP142018 200 AM PDT Thu Aug 16 2018 The latest satellite images suggest that Lane is getting better organized with its cloud pattern now consisting of a central dense overcast feature and curved bands over the western semicircle. There is a large spread in the intensity estimates tonight. All of the Dvorak-based estimates have increased to 3.5/55 kt. However, an ASCAT pass around 0600 UTC showed maximum winds of only 35 kt. Since Lane is a compact system, it is possible that the resolution of ASCAT is not sufficient to capture its maximum winds, therefore, the initial intensity is held at 45 kt as a compromise of these data. It should be noted that this is a low confidence initial intensity estimate. Lane is now moving due westward at 10 kt steered by the flow on the south side of a deep-layer ridge. The global models all show a mid- to upper-level trough off the Baja California peninsula cutting off and moving westward during the next few days. This feature will weaken the ridge a little, and that should cause Lane to make a slight turn to the west-northwest in a couple of days. The models are tightly clustered, and the NHC track forecast lies near the middle of the guidance envelope. Based on this forecast, Lane is expected to cross into the Central Pacific basin this weekend. The environmental conditions appear quite favorable for Lane to strengthen. During the next several days, the wind shear near Lane is expected to be less than 10 kt, humidity values relatively high, and SSTs sufficently warm. Therefore, steady or even rapid strengthening appears likely. The NHC intensity forecast continues to lean toward the higher end of the model guidance, and shows Lane becoming a hurricane in 12 to 24 hours, and a major hurricane within the next few days. This forecast is in best agreement with the HCCA model. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 16/0900Z 10.4N 126.4W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 16/1800Z 10.6N 128.3W 55 KT 65 MPH 24H 17/0600Z 10.9N 131.0W 70 KT 80 MPH 36H 17/1800Z 11.4N 133.7W 85 KT 100 MPH 48H 18/0600Z 11.8N 136.4W 95 KT 110 MPH 72H 19/0600Z 13.1N 141.6W 105 KT 120 MPH 96H 20/0600Z 14.4N 146.3W 110 KT 125 MPH 120H 21/0600Z 15.1N 150.3W 100 KT 115 MPH $$ Forecaster Cangialosi

Tags: number discussion lane storm

Subtropical Storm Ernesto Forecast Discussion Number 5

2018-08-16 10:32:44| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 500 AM AST Thu Aug 16 2018 645 WTNT45 KNHC 160832 TCDAT5 Subtropical Storm Ernesto Discussion Number 5 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052018 500 AM AST Thu Aug 16 2018 Ernesto has generally changed little during the past several hours. The subtropical storm continues to produce patches of convection in curved bands around the center. The circulation of the system is becoming a little elongated from north to south, and dry air is wrapping into the western portion of the system. The initial wind speed is again held at 35 kt, in agreement with the satellite intensity estimate from TAFB. The subtropical storm has a limited amount of time to strengthen as it will remain over marginally warm waters and in a low wind shear environment for only another 12 hours. After that time, the cyclone is expected to cross over a sharp SST gradient and move into an environment of higher shear. These conditions should cause Ernesto to lose its tropical characteristics in about 24 hours, when the SSTs beneath the cyclone are expected to be near 20 deg C. The post-tropical system will likely maintain its intensity, due in part to its fast forward speed, until it merges with a frontal zone near the United Kingdom this weekend. The storm continues to gradually speed up, and it is now moving north-northeastward at 11 kt. A turn to the northeast with a significant increase in forward speed is expected later today and Friday as a pair of shortwave troughs approach the storm, causing the system to become embedded in the mid-latitude westerlies. The models remain in fairly good agreement, and this track forecast is largely an update of the previous one. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 16/0900Z 40.8N 44.1W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 16/1800Z 42.4N 41.9W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 17/0600Z 45.0N 37.7W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 36H 17/1800Z 47.8N 31.6W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 48H 18/0600Z 50.6N 23.4W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 72H 19/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Cangialosi

Tags: number discussion storm forecast

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