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Post-Tropical Cyclone Debby Forecast Discussion Number 10
2018-08-09 22:37:10| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 PM AST Thu Aug 09 2018 388 WTNT44 KNHC 092036 TCDAT4 Post-Tropical Cyclone Debby Discussion Number 10 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL042018 500 PM AST Thu Aug 09 2018 Debby has become post-tropical. The circulation of the cyclone has become ill defined, and it is no longer producing enough organized deep convection to be classified as a tropical cyclone. Therefore, Debby has become post-tropical, and this is the last advisory. The cyclone is accelerating northeastward ahead of a shortwave trough, and this should continue for the next few hours until Debby opens up into a trough of low pressure and merges with a larger frontal boundary later tonight. Debby is likely still producing gale-force winds to the southeast of its center, however all of the guidance indicates that these winds will gradually decrease through early tomorrow. Additional information on this system can be found in High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service, under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01 KWBC, and available on the Web at https://ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.shtml. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 09/2100Z 45.5N 40.5W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 12H 10/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Zelinsky
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Tropical Storm Debby Forecast Discussion Number 9
2018-08-09 16:34:23| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 AM AST Thu Aug 09 2018 214 WTNT44 KNHC 091434 TCDAT4 Tropical Storm Debby Discussion Number 9 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL042018 1100 AM AST Thu Aug 09 2018 Debby continues to produce a small area of deep convection just south of its exposed low-level center. Overnight and early this morning, the cyclone passed over a warm eddy within the Gulf Stream, and this may have provided enough energy to allow the cyclone to maintain its convection and intensity. A recent ASCAT overpass around 1230 UTC showed that the maximum winds of Debby are still near 40 kt, but the cyclone has nearly opened up into a trough of low pressure. Furthermore, the wind field has broadened, typically an indication that a system is losing its tropical characteristics. No significant changes have been made to the track or intensity forecasts. The tropical storm continues to move quickly northeastward, with an initial motion of 055/15 kt. The cyclone, or its remnants, should accelerate northeastward today ahead of a fast-moving shortwave trough until dissipation occurs. Debby is now crossing over the northern wall of the Gulf Stream, so weakening is expected to resume later today. The forecast conservatively shows Debby as a post-tropical cyclone at 12 hours, but it is very possible that Debby will dissipate later today as its forward speed increases. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 09/1500Z 44.5N 43.1W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 10/0000Z 46.2N 39.2W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 24H 10/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Zelinsky
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Tropical Storm John Forecast Discussion Number 16
2018-08-09 16:32:49| Tropical Depression LIDIA
Issued at 800 AM PDT Thu Aug 09 2018
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Tropical Storm Kristy Forecast Discussion Number 11
2018-08-09 16:31:48| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 AM PDT Thu Aug 09 2018 898 WTPZ43 KNHC 091431 TCDEP3 Tropical Storm Kristy Discussion Number 11 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP132018 800 AM PDT Thu Aug 09 2018 Deep convection has continued to increase in association with Kristy, mainly in a curved band over the northern semicircle of the cyclone. The current intensity estimate is 55 kt in agreement with a Dvorak estimate from TAFB and is close to the latest CIMSS SATCON value. Some additional strengthening is possible before Kristy reaches cooler waters late tomorrow, and the official forecast is close to the IVCN intensity model consensus. A weakening trend is likely to commence tomorrow night, and the system is expected to become post-tropical later this weekend. Center fixes have a lot of scatter and the initial motion is an uncertain 345/4 kt. There continues to be a lot of spread in the track guidance models. The GFS and its ensemble, along with the HWRF and HMON regional models, are most aggressive in showing Kristy being drawn into the larger circulation of John to the northeast. The UKMET and ECMWF models do not take Kristy nearly as far to the north and northeast as those other models. Since John is weakening, it may not have that much of an influence on Kristy, especially later in the forecast period. For now, the official forecast is shifted a little to the right of the previous one but not as much as shown by the simple and corrected dynamical model consensus tracks. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 09/1500Z 16.1N 130.3W 55 KT 65 MPH 12H 10/0000Z 17.0N 130.0W 60 KT 70 MPH 24H 10/1200Z 18.2N 129.5W 60 KT 70 MPH 36H 11/0000Z 19.3N 129.0W 55 KT 65 MPH 48H 11/1200Z 20.4N 128.6W 50 KT 60 MPH 72H 12/1200Z 22.0N 128.7W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 96H 13/1200Z 23.8N 129.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 14/1200Z 25.5N 130.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Pasch
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Tropical Storm John Forecast Discussion Number 15
2018-08-09 10:44:48| Tropical Depression LIDIA
Issued at 200 AM PDT Thu Aug 09 2018
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