je.st
news
Tag: discussion
Post-Tropical Cyclone Kristy Forecast Discussion Number 19
2018-08-11 16:33:07| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 AM PDT Sat Aug 11 2018 712 WTPZ43 KNHC 111433 TCDEP3 Post-Tropical Cyclone Kristy Discussion Number 19 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP132018 800 AM PDT Sat Aug 11 2018 Cold waters and wind shear have taken a toll on Kristy. The cloud pattern has degenerated considerably, and it now consists of a tight swirl of low clouds with some patches of mid- to high-level clouds. It is estimated that the winds have decreased to 30 kt with some isolated spots of higher gusts. The cyclone will continue over cold waters, and although regeneration is not anticipated, some intermittent showers could still develop before dissipation occurs in a couple of days. Since the post-tropical cyclone is a shallow system, it is now being steered toward the west-northwest or 300 degrees at 4 kt by the low-level trade winds. This general motion with a gradual turn to the west is anticipated during the next day or so. This is the last advisory issued by NHC on this system. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 11/1500Z 21.4N 131.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 12H 12/0000Z 21.8N 131.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 24H 12/1200Z 22.0N 132.2W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 13/0000Z 22.0N 133.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 13/1200Z 22.5N 134.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 14/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Avila
Tags: number
discussion
forecast
cyclone
Tropical Storm Kristy Forecast Discussion Number 18
2018-08-11 10:41:06| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 AM PDT Sat Aug 11 2018 344 WTPZ43 KNHC 110841 TCDEP3 Tropical Storm Kristy Discussion Number 18 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP132018 200 AM PDT Sat Aug 11 2018 Kristy has weakened since the last advisory as the system moves over cooler sea surface temperatures, with the central convection becoming less organized. A recent ASCAT overpass indicates that the maximum winds have decreased to near 40 kt, and that the 34-kt wind radii are smaller than previously analyzed. Kristy will continue to move over cool sea surface temperatures during the forecast period. Thus, continued weakening is expected with the system now forecast to become a remnant low in 36 h or less. The initial motion is now 345/6. As Kristy continues to weaken, the cyclone should make a gradual turn to the northwest as it becomes shallower and therefore steered by the low- to mid-level flow around ridging to the north. Then, as the system becomes a remnant low, a turn to the west-northwest is expected, with this motion persisting through the remainder of the forecast period. The new track forecast, which is similar to the previous track, lies near the various consensus models in the middle of the guidance envelope. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 11/0900Z 21.0N 130.4W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 11/1800Z 21.6N 130.8W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 12/0600Z 22.0N 131.4W 30 KT 35 MPH 36H 12/1800Z 22.2N 132.2W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 13/0600Z 22.5N 133.3W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 14/0600Z 23.5N 136.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 15/0600Z 24.5N 139.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 16/0600Z 25.5N 142.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Beven
Tags: number
discussion
storm
tropical
Tropical Storm Kristy Forecast Discussion Number 17
2018-08-11 04:37:31| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 PM PDT Fri Aug 10 2018 298 WTPZ43 KNHC 110237 TCDEP3 Tropical Storm Kristy Discussion Number 17 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP132018 800 PM PDT Fri Aug 10 2018 Kristy appears to have begun a slow weakening trend as it is now passing over progressively cooler SSTs. Convection has become confined mainly to the northeastern quadrant, likely in response to some moderate west-southwesterly shear, as analyzed by UW-CIMSS. The initial intensity has been lowered to 55 kt, and is in agreement with the current intensity estimates from TAFB and SAB. The intensity forecast philosophy remains the same as in the recent forecasts. Kristy will move over SSTs of 23-25 degrees C over the next couple of days, and steady weakening is expected to occur tonight through Sunday. By Sunday evening, Kristy is expected to lose any remaining deep convection and become a remnant low. Kristy is moving just west of due north, with an initial motion estimate of 355/8 kt. During the weakening trend over the next couple of days, Kristy should make a gradual turn to the northwest as it becomes shallower and therefore steered by the low- to mid- level flow around ridging to the north. As the system loses its convection and becomes a remnant low, a turn to the west-northwest is expected. This motion will then continue until the remnant low dissipates by the middle of the week. The track guidance is in good agreement on this scenario, and the NHC track forecast has been shifted slightly to the left of the previous forecast, following the trends in the latest consensus models. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 11/0300Z 20.5N 130.1W 55 KT 65 MPH 12H 11/1200Z 21.1N 130.3W 50 KT 60 MPH 24H 12/0000Z 21.7N 130.8W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 12/1200Z 22.0N 131.5W 30 KT 35 MPH 48H 13/0000Z 22.3N 132.4W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 14/0000Z 23.0N 134.7W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 15/0000Z 23.6N 137.7W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 16/0000Z 24.4N 140.3W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Berg/Latto
Tags: number
discussion
storm
tropical
Tropical Storm Kristy Forecast Discussion Number 15
2018-08-10 16:39:29| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 AM PDT Fri Aug 10 2018 207 WTPZ43 KNHC 101439 TCDEP3 Tropical Storm Kristy Discussion Number 15 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP132018 800 AM PDT Fri Aug 10 2018 Kristy appears to have at least maintained its strength over the past several hours. A partial hit from the AMSR instrument at 0950 UTC indicated a closed or nearly-closed mid-level eye was present, and this feature was still apparent in SSMI imagery a few hours later. Convection near Kristy's center has also recovered after a brief decrease earlier this morning. There is a large spread in the latest satellite intensity estimates. Objective estimates from the UW-CIMSS ADT and SATCON are around 50 kt, while the latest subjective Dvorak classification from SAB supports an intensity of 77 kt. The initial intensity has been held at 60 kt as a compromise between the various estimates, but this estimate is perhaps more uncertain than usual. In the short term, Kristy still has a brief period to maintain its intensity for about 12 hours while the shear is low and it remains over marginally warm SSTs around 26C. In fact, I can't rule out that Kristy could briefly become a hurricane later today. Beginning tomorrow, the cyclone will be moving over cooler waters, and steady weakening should begin. The intensity guidance is in very good agreement on this solution for 24 hours and beyond. By early next week, the tropical storm will likely lose all convection and become a remnant low, while continuing to gradually spin down over sub-24C waters. The initial motion is now 010/8 kt. Kristy should continue moving generally northward for the next couple of days, towards a weakness in the subtropical ridge created by John and to the east of a large upper-level trough located over the central Pacific. Once the cyclone becomes a remnant low, it should turn gradually westward, steered by the low-level flow. Even the GFS no longer shows any significant interaction between Kristy and the remnants of John, so the NHC forecast has shifted substantially southwestward by the end of the forecast period, close to the HCCA and TVCN consensus aids. Additional adjustments in this direction may be required if it becomes clear that Kristy will weaken sooner than currently forecast. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 10/1500Z 18.9N 129.8W 60 KT 70 MPH 12H 11/0000Z 19.9N 129.6W 60 KT 70 MPH 24H 11/1200Z 20.9N 129.5W 50 KT 60 MPH 36H 12/0000Z 21.6N 129.7W 40 KT 45 MPH 48H 12/1200Z 22.1N 130.1W 35 KT 40 MPH 72H 13/1200Z 23.3N 131.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 14/1200Z 24.0N 133.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 15/1200Z 24.5N 135.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Zelinsky
Tags: number
discussion
storm
tropical
Post-Tropical Cyclone John Forecast Discussion Number 20
2018-08-10 16:33:30| Tropical Depression LIDIA
Issued at 800 AM PDT Fri Aug 10 2018
Tags: number
john
discussion
forecast
Sites : [554] [555] [556] [557] [558] [559] [560] [561] [562] [563] [564] [565] [566] [567] [568] [569] [570] [571] [572] [573] next »