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Hurricane Lane Forecast Discussion Number 16

2018-08-18 22:34:01| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 200 PM PDT Sat Aug 18 2018 831 WTPZ44 KNHC 182033 TCDEP4 Hurricane Lane Discussion Number 16 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP142018 200 PM PDT Sat Aug 18 2018 Lane remains an impressive hurricane in geostationary satellite imagery. The distinct 15 nmi-wide eye is surrounded by a ring of convection with clouds tops around -65 to -70C. The clouds tops have warmed slightly but the subjective and objective Dvorak Current Intensity (CI) numbers are unchanged so the initial intensity is maintained at 120 kt for this advisory. The hurricane continues moving west-northwestward at about 13 kt. A large subtropical ridge to the north of Lane should keep the hurricane on a west-northwestward to westward heading during the next 24 hours. After that time, the ridge is forecast to build westward which is expected to take Lane on a more westward course between 36 and 72 hours. By day 4, Lane will be approaching the western portion of the ridge which should result in a turn back toward the west-northwest. The lastest iterations of the UKMET and GFS models have shifted southward but remain along the northern side of the guidance envelope. Meanwhile, the ECMWF remains along the southern side of the guidance and also depicts a much faster forward speed. The updated NHC track forecast has been adjusted slightly southward to be near the latest consensus aids. The intensity forecast reasoning is unchanged from the previous advisory. Lane will be moving over SSTs of 27-28 degrees Celsius throughout the forecast period, but some west to northwesterly vertical shear is expected to affect the hurricane. As a result, gradually weakening is indicated in the official forecast over the next few days. A more significant increase in shear late in the forecast period could result in a faster rate of weakening at days 4 and 5. The NHC intensity forecast is near the upper-end of the guidance during the first 24 to 48 hours, and then is closest to the HFIP corrected consensus later in the period. Lane will move into the Central Pacific Basin very soon and this is last NHC advisory on this system. Future information on Lane can be found in advisories issued by the Central Pacific Hurricane Center beginning at 5 PM HST (0300 UTC), under AWIPS header HFOTCPCP2, WMO header WTPA32 PHFO, and on the web at http://www.prh.noaa.gov/cphc . FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 18/2100Z 12.5N 139.7W 120 KT 140 MPH 12H 19/0600Z 12.9N 141.4W 115 KT 130 MPH 24H 19/1800Z 13.4N 143.6W 110 KT 125 MPH 36H 20/0600Z 13.7N 145.6W 105 KT 120 MPH 48H 20/1800Z 13.9N 147.5W 100 KT 115 MPH 72H 21/1800Z 14.1N 151.1W 95 KT 110 MPH 96H 22/1800Z 14.8N 154.7W 70 KT 80 MPH 120H 23/1800Z 15.9N 158.2W 60 KT 70 MPH $$ Forecaster Brown/Latto

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Hurricane Lane Forecast Discussion Number 15

2018-08-18 16:51:34| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 800 AM PDT Sat Aug 18 2018 974 WTPZ44 KNHC 181451 TCDEP4 Hurricane Lane Discussion Number 15 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP142018 800 AM PDT Sat Aug 18 2018 Lane's inner-core convective organization has continued to improve with satellite intensity estimates vacillating between T6.0/115 kt and T6.5/127 kt during the past 6 hours. The 15-nmi-diameter eye remains quiet distinct and is embedded within a solid ring of cloud tops colder than -70 deg C. An average of the various intensity estimates from TAFB, SAB, and UW-CIMSS ADT and SATCON support increasing the intensity to 120 kt. The initial motion estimate is 285/13 kt. There has been little change in the models over the past couple of days, and the latest NHC guidance, especially the consensus track models, required no significant changes to the previous advisory track. The large expansive subtropical ridge to the north of the hurricane is forecast to remain intact and gradually build westward to the north of the Hawaiian Islands throughout the 120-h forecast period. As a result, Lane is expected to move west-northwestward for the next 48 hours or so, and then turn westward by day 3, maintaining that motion on days 4 and 5. The official forecast track lies close to a blend of the HCCA, TVCE, and FSSE consensus models. On the forecast track, Hurricane Lane is expected to move into the Central Pacific basin in about 9 hours at around 0000 UTC. Although Lane will be remaining over 27.0-27.5 deg C SSTs during the forecast period, increasing westerly to northwesterly vertical wind shear to around 15 kt, along with a slightly drier mid-level environment, is expected to induce slow but steady weakening by 24 hours. Although Lane could strengthen a little more before the prolonged weakening begins, the general intensity trend should be downward. However, the rate of weakening is held a little above the intensity guidance owing to the warmer SSTs indicated by raw data than what the SHIPS model guidance is using. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 18/1500Z 12.3N 138.2W 120 KT 140 MPH 12H 19/0000Z 12.8N 140.0W 120 KT 140 MPH 24H 19/1200Z 13.4N 142.3W 115 KT 130 MPH 36H 20/0000Z 13.8N 144.3W 110 KT 125 MPH 48H 20/1200Z 14.1N 146.3W 105 KT 120 MPH 72H 21/1200Z 14.5N 150.1W 95 KT 110 MPH 96H 22/1200Z 14.9N 153.5W 80 KT 90 MPH 120H 23/1200Z 15.8N 157.0W 65 KT 75 MPH $$ Forecaster Stewart

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Hurricane Lane Forecast Discussion Number 14

2018-08-18 10:39:28| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 200 AM PDT Sat Aug 18 2018 839 WTPZ44 KNHC 180839 TCDEP4 Hurricane Lane Discussion Number 14 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP142018 200 AM PDT Sat Aug 18 2018 The satellite presentation of Lane has improved significantly during the past several hours with a distinct eye surrounded by very deep convection and symmetric outflow. T-numbers from both TAFB and SAB are 6.0 on the Dvorak scale, and on this basis, the initial intensity has been increased to 115 kt. The hurricane is moving within an environment of light shear, and this should allow some additional strengthening during the next 12 to 24 hours. After that time, guidance suggests that a slight weakening should begin perhaps to a modest increase in shear. The NHC forecast does not weaken Lane as fast as indicated by the intensity guidance. Lane continues to move toward the west-northwest or 285 degrees at 14 kt, steered by the trade winds south of the subtropical high. Since the steering pattern is not expected to change much, this general motion should continue during the next 3 to 5 days. An expected weakening of the trades should result in a small decrease in the hurricane's forward speed. Track models are tightly clustered during the first 72 hours, and this increases the confidence in the forecast. After that time, the model agreement is not as good, resulting in a wider guidance envelope bounded by the GFS to the north and ECMWF to the south. The NHC forecast follows very closely the multi-model ensemble and the corrected consensus HCCA which are in the middle of the envelope. No significant changes were made to the previous NHC forecast FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 18/0900Z 12.1N 137.0W 115 KT 130 MPH 12H 18/1800Z 12.5N 139.0W 120 KT 140 MPH 24H 19/0600Z 13.0N 141.5W 120 KT 140 MPH 36H 19/1800Z 13.7N 143.6W 110 KT 125 MPH 48H 20/0600Z 14.0N 145.5W 105 KT 120 MPH 72H 21/0600Z 14.5N 149.5W 100 KT 115 MPH 96H 22/0600Z 14.8N 153.1W 80 KT 90 MPH 120H 23/0600Z 15.7N 156.5W 65 KT 75 MPH $$ Forecaster Avila

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Post-Tropical Cyclone Ernesto Forecast Discussion Number 13

2018-08-18 10:34:30| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 500 AM AST Sat Aug 18 2018 808 WTNT45 KNHC 180834 TCDAT5 Post-Tropical Cyclone Ernesto Discussion Number 13 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052018 500 AM AST Sat Aug 18 2018 Ernesto lost all its associated deep convection and the circulation is becoming elongated. On this basis, it is estimated that Ernesto has become a post-tropical cyclone. The system could still produce 35-kt winds in the southeastern quadrant, but it should continue to slowly weaken during the next 24 hours while it approaches Ireland and merges with a frontal zone later today. The post-tropical cyclone's circulation should dissipate while it moves across Ireland and portions of the United Kingdom by early Sunday. Ernesto is racing east-northeastward at 30 kt, and this motion should continue until dissipation as indicated by guidance. The post-tropical cyclone or its remnants are expected to spread gusty winds and locally heavy rain over portions of Ireland and the United Kingdom tonight and early Sunday. Information on rainfall and wind forecasts for Ireland can be found in products issued by Met Eireann at www.met.ie and for the United Kingdom in products issued by the United Kingdom Met Office at www.metoffice.gov/uk. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 18/0900Z 51.9N 20.0W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 12H 18/1800Z 53.5N 13.0W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 24H 19/0600Z 55.0N 5.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 36H 19/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Avila

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Hurricane Lane Forecast Discussion Number 13

2018-08-18 04:34:58| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 800 PM PDT Fri Aug 17 2018 678 WTPZ44 KNHC 180234 TCDEP4 Hurricane Lane Discussion Number 13 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP142018 800 PM PDT Fri Aug 17 2018 Lane has continued to rapidly intensify during the past several hours, with the eye gradually becoming better defined and the central dense overcast surrounding the eye becoming larger. Satellite intensity estimates have increased to a range of 100-115 kt, and based on this the initial intensity is increased to 105 kt in best agreement with the CIMSS satellite consensus technique. The hurricane currently has good outflow in all directions and there is a large area of outer banding, primarily in the southeastern semicircle. The first portion of the intensity forecast is a bit problematic. With the exception of the HMON model, none of the intensity guidance shows much additional strengthening. However, except for the possibility of some dry air wrapping around the west side of the central convection, there is no apparent reason why the current rapid intensification should stop that quickly. The intensity forecast will show 12 h more of rapid intensification, followed by a period of little change from 12-48 h. This portion of the intensity forecast lies above all of the guidance. After 48 h, Lane should start to encounter westerly shear, which should increase by the end of the forecast period and cause the cyclone to steadily weaken. This portion of the intensity forecast lies near or a little above the intensity consensus. The initial motion is 280/14. Lane is forecast to move south of a subtropical ridge in either a westward or west-northwestward direction over the next 5 days, with some decrease in forward speed by 72-120 h as the ridge weakens slightly. There is some spread in the guidance by 120 h, with the GFS and the NAVGEM models on the north side of the guidance envelope and the ECMWF model and UKMET Ensemble mean on the south side. As in the previous advisory, little change was made to the forecast track which lies close to the center of the guidance envelope and the consensus models. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 18/0300Z 11.8N 135.6W 105 KT 120 MPH 12H 18/1200Z 12.2N 137.7W 120 KT 140 MPH 24H 19/0000Z 12.7N 140.4W 120 KT 140 MPH 36H 19/1200Z 13.4N 142.7W 120 KT 140 MPH 48H 20/0000Z 13.9N 145.0W 115 KT 130 MPH 72H 21/0000Z 14.5N 149.0W 100 KT 115 MPH 96H 22/0000Z 15.0N 152.5W 80 KT 90 MPH 120H 23/0000Z 15.5N 156.5W 65 KT 75 MPH $$ Forecaster Beven

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