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Tropical Storm Kristy Forecast Discussion Number 14

2018-08-10 10:53:26| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 200 AM PDT Fri Aug 10 2018 302 WTPZ43 KNHC 100853 TCDEP3 Tropical Storm Kristy Discussion Number 14 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP132018 200 AM PDT Fri Aug 10 2018 Kristy has become a little better organized since the last advisory, as there is now a small central dense overcast with outer banding in the southern semicircle. Satellite intensity estimates are in the 55-65 kt range, and recent scatterometer data suggests winds are below hurricane strength. Based on these data, the initial intensity is held at 60 kt. There is still some chance that Kristy could become a hurricane during the next few hours. After that, the forecast track takes the cyclone over cooler waters and a steady weakening is forecast. The new intensity forecast, which lies in the middle of the intensity guidance, is nudged downward a little from the previous forecast, although it still calls for Kristy to become a remnant low by 72 h. The initial motion is 005/7. The track guidance has made a notable westward shift since the previous advisory, as the models generally show less interaction between Kristy and Tropical Storm John. However, there is still a significant spread between the northward tracking GFS and the more westward UKMET and ECMWF. The new forecast track is also shifted westward from the previous track, but it lies to the east of the various consensus models. An additional westward adjustment to the track may be required later if the current model trends continue. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 10/0900Z 18.2N 129.8W 60 KT 70 MPH 12H 10/1800Z 19.2N 129.5W 60 KT 70 MPH 24H 11/0600Z 20.3N 129.2W 55 KT 65 MPH 36H 11/1800Z 21.1N 129.2W 50 KT 60 MPH 48H 12/0600Z 21.8N 129.4W 40 KT 45 MPH 72H 13/0600Z 23.5N 130.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 14/0600Z 25.0N 132.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 15/0600Z 26.5N 133.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Beven

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Tropical Storm Kristy Forecast Discussion Number 13

2018-08-10 04:49:58| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 800 PM PDT Thu Aug 09 2018 319 WTPZ43 KNHC 100249 TCDEP3 Tropical Storm Kristy Discussion Number 13 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP132018 800 PM PDT Thu Aug 09 2018 Recent 37-GHz microwave images show that Kristy's low-level structure has improved markedly with a solid cyan ring and multiple low-cloud spiral bands. Inner-core convection has increased too, and recent infrared satellite imagery is suggesting the possible development of a ragged eye. Although 00Z Dvorak estimates were a consensus T3.5 from TAFB and SAB, the continued improvement in structure supports an initial intensity of 60 kt. Given the cyclone's well-defined structure, Kristy could become a hurricane overnight or early Friday while it remains over sufficiently warm water and in a low-shear environment. After that time, cooler waters and gradually increasing shear will cause the winds in the circulation to slowly diminish, with deep convection likely dissipating, and Kristy becoming post-tropical, by 72 hours. The updated NHC intensity forecast is a little higher than the guidance in the first 12 hours but then is similar to the previous forecast and close to the HCCA guidance and the ICON intensity consensus thereafter. Kristy is moving slightly east of due north, or 010/6 kt. There has been little change in the tune of the various track models. The GFS and HWRF continue to show Kristy being pulled north- northeastward by Tropical Storm John, while the ECMWF and UKMET models show less interaction and have Kristy turning west- northwestward by 36-48 hours with more ridging to the north. This might be a classic case of why the consensus approach can work so well. So far, with 72 hours of forecasts for Kristy under our belt, the GFS and the ECMWF have been the two worst-performing track models, each having a significant eastward and westward bias, respectively. The various consensus aids, on the other hand, have proven to be the most skillful so far. For that reason, the NHC track forecast continues to be down the middle of the guidance envelope, close to a blend of the HCCA and TVCX aids. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 10/0300Z 17.4N 129.9W 60 KT 70 MPH 12H 10/1200Z 18.4N 129.5W 65 KT 75 MPH 24H 11/0000Z 19.7N 129.1W 60 KT 70 MPH 36H 11/1200Z 20.7N 129.0W 55 KT 65 MPH 48H 12/0000Z 21.4N 129.1W 45 KT 50 MPH 72H 13/0000Z 23.2N 129.5W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 96H 14/0000Z 25.5N 130.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 15/0000Z 27.0N 131.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Berg

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Tropical Storm John Forecast Discussion Number 18

2018-08-10 04:40:25| Tropical Depression LIDIA

Issued at 800 PM PDT Thu Aug 09 2018

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Tropical Storm Kristy Forecast Discussion Number 12

2018-08-09 22:37:52| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 200 PM PDT Thu Aug 09 2018 528 WTPZ43 KNHC 092037 TCDEP3 Tropical Storm Kristy Discussion Number 12 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP132018 200 PM PDT Thu Aug 09 2018 Kristy's deep convection has been waxing and waning, with an overall decrease a few hours ago followed by a recent increase near the center. The advisory intensity is kept at 55 kt, in agreement with objective ADT values from UW/CIMSS and a subjective Dvorak classification from TAFB. Kristy is over marginally warm waters, in low vertical shear, and with fairly well-defined upper-level outflow. There is a window of opportunity of about a day for additional intensification, and the official intensity forecast follows the intensity model consensus and the LGEM guidance. A weakening trend is likely to commence by Friday night, and Kristy should degenerate into a post-tropical cyclone by late in the weekend. Visible imagery and some microwave data provided more accurate center fixes than earlier today, and the initial motion is a more confident 360/6 kt. The main steering mechanisms for Kristy are a weak ridge to the north and the large circulation of weakening John to the northeast. There continues to be significant diversity in the track models. The ECMWF and UKMET models, and their ensembles, are substantially to the left of the other guidance with the GFS, HWRF, and HMON much more to north and east, presumably due to interaction with John. Since the weakening John may not be that much of an influence, the official forecast is roughly in the middle of these two extremes and close to the model consensus. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 09/2100Z 16.9N 130.1W 55 KT 65 MPH 12H 10/0600Z 17.7N 129.8W 60 KT 70 MPH 24H 10/1800Z 19.0N 129.1W 60 KT 70 MPH 36H 11/0600Z 20.3N 128.7W 55 KT 65 MPH 48H 11/1800Z 21.3N 128.6W 50 KT 60 MPH 72H 12/1800Z 23.0N 129.0W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 96H 13/1800Z 25.0N 130.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 14/1800Z 27.0N 131.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Pasch

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Tropical Storm John Forecast Discussion Number 17

2018-08-09 22:37:10| Tropical Depression LIDIA

Issued at 200 PM PDT Thu Aug 09 2018

Tags: number john discussion storm

 

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