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Hurricane John Forecast Discussion Number 7

2018-08-07 10:32:02| Tropical Depression LIDIA

Issued at 300 AM MDT Tue Aug 07 2018

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Tropical Depression Thirteen-E Forecast Discussion Number 1

2018-08-07 06:36:32| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 1000 PM PDT Mon Aug 06 2018 282 WTPZ43 KNHC 070436 TCDEP3 Tropical Depression Thirteen-E Special Discussion Number 1 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP132018 1000 PM PDT Mon Aug 06 2018 Microwave data from this evening indicate that a small low pressure area has formed within an area of disturbed weather (Invest 94E) that we have been monitoring for several days. The data indicate that the well-defined low is embedded within a growing ball of convection, along with tight banding near the center. The initial wind speed is set to 30 kt in accordance with a special 0400 UTC classification from TAFB. Gradual strengthening is forecast over the next couple of days until the system passes over cooler waters. Most of the guidance is indicating only slow intensification due to northeasterly shear, although some caution should be advised since the depression is fairly small. An uncertain estimate of initial motion is 270/9 kt. The subtropical ridge to the north is expected to steer the system westward for the next day or two, then the forecast gets tricky. The GFS-based guidance is showing Hurricane John weakening the ridge enough to cause a northward or north-northeastward turn of the new tropical cyclone by Thursday, while the ECMWF and its ensemble show the system avoiding any binary interaction with John, and continuing west-northwestward. With such widely divergent guidance, the first forecast will stay close to the consensus, and perhaps later guidance can nail down the specifics of any poleward turn. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 07/0500Z 14.5N 124.3W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 07/1200Z 14.4N 125.4W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 08/0000Z 14.4N 127.2W 45 KT 50 MPH 36H 08/1200Z 14.7N 128.7W 50 KT 60 MPH 48H 09/0000Z 15.2N 129.9W 55 KT 65 MPH 72H 10/0000Z 17.0N 130.5W 55 KT 65 MPH 96H 11/0000Z 19.5N 131.0W 50 KT 60 MPH 120H 12/0000Z 22.0N 132.5W 40 KT 45 MPH $$ Forecaster Blake

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Tropical Storm Ileana Forecast Discussion Number 10

2018-08-07 04:34:00| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 1000 PM CDT Mon Aug 06 2018 192 WTPZ41 KNHC 070233 TCDEP1 Tropical Storm Ileana Discussion Number 10 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP112018 1000 PM CDT Mon Aug 06 2018 GOES-16 visible satellite imagery and a couple of earlier microwave images indicate that Ileana's cloud pattern has become rather amorphous during the past several hours, and the distinct low cloud elements identified earlier today in visible imagery are no longer evident. Based on the deteriorating satellite presentation, the initial intensity is lowered to 50 kt for this advisory, which is still a little higher than the subjective intensity estimates from TAFB and SAB. The global and hurricane models are in good agreement with Ileana dissipating in less than 24 hours, as a result of larger Hurricane John's upper tropospheric outflow. The UKMET, however, maintains Ileana as a shallow tropical cyclone for a little longer...about 36 hours prior to dissipation. The official intensity forecast sides with the model majority solution showing the cyclone either being absorbed by John, or dissipating in about 24 hours, and is also based on a similar scenario reflected in the LGEM statistical intensity model output. The initial motion remains a bit unclear, but still appears to be northwestward and little faster...305/17 kt. Ileana is forecast to move between Hurricane John to the west and a deep-layer ridge extending over the southwestern U.S. and northern Mexico until the cyclone dissipates. The NHC forecast is again nudged slightly to the right of the previous advisory and is close to the TVCN model consensus. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 07/0300Z 18.0N 104.9W 50 KT 60 MPH 12H 07/1200Z 19.3N 107.5W 50 KT 60 MPH 24H 08/0000Z 20.8N 111.2W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 08/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Roberts

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Hurricane John Forecast Discussion Number 6

2018-08-07 04:31:29| Tropical Depression LIDIA

Issued at 900 PM MDT Mon Aug 06 2018

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Hurricane John Forecast Discussion Number 5

2018-08-06 22:49:00| Tropical Depression LIDIA

Issued at 300 PM MDT Mon Aug 06 2018

Tags: number john discussion forecast

 

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