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Hurricane Hector Forecast Discussion Number 21
2018-08-05 22:51:50| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 PM PDT Sun Aug 05 2018 141 WTPZ45 KNHC 052051 TCDEP5 Hurricane Hector Discussion Number 21 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP102018 200 PM PDT Sun Aug 05 2018 Hector continues to exhibit an impressive satellite presentation. A 1559 UTC SSMIS microwave overpass suggests that Hector likely completed an eyewall replacement since this morning, with the eye becoming better defined. Both conventional satellite imagery and the aforementioned microwave data show little in the way of banding outside of the symmetric CDO, suggesting that Hector has some characteristics of an annular hurricane. Subjective satellite intensity estimates are T6.0/115 kt from TAFB and SAB, and the latest UW/CIMSS objective estimates are up to T6.1 or 117 kt. As result, the initial wind speed is increased to 115 kt, making Hector a category 4 hurricane once again. Hector is forecast to remain within very low vertical wind shear while it traverses SSTs of around 27C during much of the forecast period. However, the hurricane will be moving into an area of drier mid-level air which is likely to induce some weakening later in the forecast period. Given Hector's annular-like structure, the NHC intensity forecast shows a more gradual rate of weakening since annular hurricanes tend to be more stable and weaken more slowly. The NHC intensity forecast is in best agreement with the HFIP corrected consensus model, HCCA. The hurricane continues moving westward or 275/11 kt. There is been no change to the track forecast reasoning. Hector is forecast to move westward to west-northwestward during the next day or so to the south of a deep-layer subtropical ridge. The ridge is expected to strengthen to the north of the Hawaiian Islands by mid-week which is expected to turn the hurricane westward. The models continue to be in good agreement on this general scenario but some cross-track spread remains. The NHC forecast is once again near the middle of the guidance envelope, close to the various consensus models. The NOAA G-IV aircraft will be releasing dropsondes as it circumnavigates Hector during its flight to Hawaii to support forecast operations over the next few days. Data from these dropsondes should be incorporated into this evening's 0000 UTC dynamical models. While the official forecast track continues to lie south of the Hawaiian Islands, only a slight deviation to the north of the forecast track would significantly increase potential impacts on the Hawaiian Islands. It is a good time for everyone in the Hawaiian Islands to ensure they have their hurricane plan in place. For additional information on any potential local impacts from Hector in Hawaii, please refer to products issued by the NWS Weather Forecast Office in Honolulu at: http://www.prh.noaa.gov/hnl FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 05/2100Z 14.4N 138.0W 115 KT 130 MPH 12H 06/0600Z 14.7N 139.8W 110 KT 125 MPH 24H 06/1800Z 15.3N 142.4W 105 KT 120 MPH 36H 07/0600Z 15.9N 145.3W 100 KT 115 MPH 48H 07/1800Z 16.4N 148.4W 95 KT 110 MPH 72H 08/1800Z 16.7N 154.5W 90 KT 105 MPH 96H 09/1800Z 17.0N 160.3W 85 KT 100 MPH 120H 10/1800Z 17.7N 166.0W 80 KT 90 MPH $$ Forecaster Brown
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Tropical Depression Twelve-E Forecast Discussion Number 1
2018-08-05 22:39:19| Tropical Depression LIDIA
Issued at 400 PM CDT Sun Aug 05 2018
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Tropical Storm Ileana Forecast Discussion Number 5
2018-08-05 22:34:22| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 400 PM CDT Sun Aug 05 2018 185 WTPZ41 KNHC 052034 TCDEP1 Tropical Storm Ileana Discussion Number 5 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP112018 400 PM CDT Sun Aug 05 2018 The cyclone has continued to become better organized today, with a fairly symmetrical shape on geostationary imagery. Data from a recent ASCAT overpass showed that the center was embedded about in the middle of a small CDO-like feature. The scatterometer data indicated maximum winds of 35-40 kt, and Dvorak classifications from TAFB and SAB gave intensity estimates of 35 kt and 45 kt, respectively. Blending these various estimates yields a current intensity of about 40 kt, and the tropical cyclone is thus being named. Since the system should be in a warm water and low shear environment for the next couple of days, some additional strengthening is forecast. However a strengthening cyclone is situated not far to the west of Ileana. This larger system is forecast by the ECMWF and GFS models to become the dominant cyclone in a few days, and cause the tropical storm to dissipate near the northern side of the larger circulation. That is the scenario shown by the official intensity forecast. There is more confidence in the center position than there was earlier today, and the estimated initial motion is west-northwestward or 285/9 kt. Over the next couple of days, Ileana is likely to move between a mid-level ridge to its north and northeast and the larger cyclonic circulation to its west and southwest. The official track forecast is on the southern side of the track guidance envelope. It is also very close to the latest HCCA forecast track. Interests along the coast of southern and southwestern Mexico should monitor the progress of this system, given the uncertainties in the forecast. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 05/2100Z 13.6N 98.1W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 06/0600Z 14.5N 100.0W 45 KT 50 MPH 24H 06/1800Z 16.2N 102.3W 50 KT 60 MPH 36H 07/0600Z 17.9N 104.6W 50 KT 60 MPH 48H 07/1800Z 19.2N 106.7W 45 KT 50 MPH 72H 08/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Pasch
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Tropical Depression Eleven-E Forecast Discussion Number 4
2018-08-05 16:36:17| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1000 AM CDT Sun Aug 05 2018 621 WTPZ41 KNHC 051436 TCDEP1 Tropical Depression Eleven-E Discussion Number 4 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP112018 1000 AM CDT Sun Aug 05 2018 Latest visible satellite images indicate that the tropical cyclone is gradually becoming better organized. The center is estimated to be on the northern side of a small circular area of deep convection, with a developing band of convection over the southern semicircle of the circulation. The initial intensity is set at 30 kt in agreement with the latest Dvorak estimates from both TAFB and SAB. Since the center is still not easy to locate, the initial motion is a rather uncertain 290/10 kt. The primary steering mechanisms for the system are a mid-level ridge to the north and a developing cyclone to the west. It is not clear just how much interaction will occur between the two cyclones, and it is likely that some of the model vortex tracks are not representative in the 2-3 day time frame. The forecast track is somewhat north of the previous one but near the southern side of the guidance envelope. This is close to the latest HFIP Corrected Consensus Approach, HCCA, track. The GFS and ECMWF global model predictions indicate that the circulation to the west of Eleven-E will become dominant. In fact, the GFS indicates that this circulation will absorb the tropical cyclone within a day or so. The ECMWF indicates that this absorption will occur several days later, and the official forecast calls for dissipation in 3-4 days. If the western circulation does not become the dominant system, then Eleven-E could strengthen more than indicated here, as shown by some of the other guidance. Interest along the coast of southern and southwestern Mexico should monitor the progress of this system, given the uncertainties in the forecast. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 05/1500Z 13.5N 97.3W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 06/0000Z 14.1N 98.8W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 06/1200Z 15.3N 100.8W 35 KT 40 MPH 36H 07/0000Z 16.9N 103.8W 40 KT 45 MPH 48H 07/1200Z 18.3N 106.5W 45 KT 50 MPH 72H 08/1200Z 20.5N 112.0W 35 KT 40 MPH 96H 09/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Pasch
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Hurricane Hector Forecast Discussion Number 20
2018-08-05 16:36:17| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 AM PDT Sun Aug 05 2018 619 WTPZ45 KNHC 051436 TCDEP5 Hurricane Hector Discussion Number 20 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP102018 800 AM PDT Sun Aug 05 2018 Hector continues to maintain a 10-15 n mi wide eye surrounded by a ring of -60 to -70 degrees Celsius cloud tops. The eye has become slightly less distinct this morning and recent microwave data suggest that an eyewall replacement cycle could be occurring. A 1111 UTC AMSR2 microwave overpass shows a double eyewall structure with the inner eyewall open to the southwest. The various subjective and objective satellite estimates are between 102-110 kt, and the initial wind speed is kept near the upper-end of these estimates for now. The hurricane is moving westward or 275/10 kt. A westward to west-northwestward motion is expected over the next day or so as Hector is steered by a deep-layer ridge to its north. The ridge is forecast to strengthen north of the Hawaiian Islands by mid-week which should cause the hurricane to move on a general westward track throughout most of the remainder of the forecast period. While all of the dynamical models are in agreement on the overall scenario there is a fairly typical amount of cross-track spread with the ECMWF along the southern edge of the guidance envelope and the HMON and GFS along the northern side. The updated NHC track forecast is close to the latest consensus aids, and little overall change to the previous forecast was required. Hector is forecast to remain over warm SSTs and within a low shear environment for the next couple of days, and it is possible for some fluctuations in intensity to occur as the result of eyewall replacements. By 48 h, the hurricane is predicted to encounter some drier mid-level air which is forecast to cause gradual weakening after that time. The latest NHC intensity forecast is a little above the statistical guidance, closest to the HCCA and FSSE intensity models. While the official forecast track continues to lie south of the Hawaiian Islands, it is too soon to determine what kind of impacts might occur in the state, since track errors can be large at long time ranges. This remains a good time for everyone in the Hawaiian Islands to ensure they have their hurricane plan in place. For additional information on any potential local impacts from Hector in Hawaii, please refer to products issued by the NWS Weather Forecast Office in Honolulu at http://www.prh.noaa.gov/hnl . FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 05/1500Z 14.4N 136.9W 110 KT 125 MPH 12H 06/0000Z 14.6N 138.6W 105 KT 120 MPH 24H 06/1200Z 15.1N 141.2W 105 KT 120 MPH 36H 07/0000Z 15.7N 144.1W 100 KT 115 MPH 48H 07/1200Z 16.3N 147.1W 95 KT 110 MPH 72H 08/1200Z 16.8N 153.2W 90 KT 105 MPH 96H 09/1200Z 17.2N 158.8W 90 KT 105 MPH 120H 10/1200Z 17.8N 164.2W 85 KT 100 MPH $$ Forecaster Brown
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