Home › discussion
 

Keywords :   


Tag: discussion

Hurricane John Forecast Discussion Number 8

2018-08-07 16:47:34| Tropical Depression LIDIA

Issued at 900 AM MDT Tue Aug 07 2018

Tags: number john discussion forecast

 

Remnants of Ileana Forecast Discussion Number 12

2018-08-07 16:43:35| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 900 AM MDT Tue Aug 07 2018 465 WTPZ41 KNHC 071443 TCDEP1 Remnants Of Ileana Discussion Number 12 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP112018 900 AM MDT Tue Aug 07 2018 Early morning GOES-16 one-minute satellite imagery confirms that the small circulation of Ileana has dissipated within the northern portion of Hurricane John's larger circulation. As a result, this is the final NHC advisory on Ileana. The remnants of the tropical cyclone are likely producing an area of tropical-storm-force winds that should gradually decrease in intensity as it rotates around the northern and northwestern portion of John during the next few hours. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 07/1500Z 20.5N 109.0W 40 KT 45 MPH...REMNANTS 12H 08/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Brown

Tags: number discussion forecast remnants

 
 

Tropical Storm Kristy Forecast Discussion Number 3

2018-08-07 16:43:08| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 800 AM PDT Tue Aug 07 2018 453 WTPZ43 KNHC 071442 TCDEP3 Tropical Storm Kristy Discussion Number 3 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP132018 800 AM PDT Tue Aug 07 2018 The cloud pattern of Kristy is a little better organized with several clusters of deep convection. The Dvorak T-numbers are now 3.0/45 kt, and this data is now in better agreement with the earlier ASCAT pass that was mentioned in the previous discussion. Therefore, the initial intensity is kept at 45 kt. Kristy is within a low shear environment, and most of the guidance indicates gradual strengthening. The NHC forecast brings Kristy to hurricane status in a couple of days while the cyclone remains over warm waters. By the end of the forecast period, the circulation will begin to be affected by cooler waters, which should result in weakening. The best estimate of the initial motion is toward the west or 270 degrees at 8 kt. The track forecast during the first 24 hours or so is fairly straightforward since the cyclone is embedded within deep easterlies. Thereafter, the easterly flow will be interrupted by the larger circulation of Hurricane John passing to the north of Kristy, and the cyclone will most likely turn northward in response. The spread in the guidance becomes large after 24 to 36 hours with the ECMWF model keeping Kristy on a west-northwest path while the GFS shows a northward motion as Kristy interacts with John. The NHC forecast is in the middle of these two options and very closely follows the multi-model consensus. It should be noted that there is low confidence in the long range track forecast. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 07/1500Z 13.8N 126.5W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 08/0000Z 13.9N 127.6W 50 KT 60 MPH 24H 08/1200Z 14.2N 128.9W 55 KT 65 MPH 36H 09/0000Z 14.8N 130.0W 60 KT 70 MPH 48H 09/1200Z 16.0N 130.5W 65 KT 75 MPH 72H 10/1200Z 18.0N 130.5W 65 KT 75 MPH 96H 11/1200Z 20.5N 131.5W 55 KT 65 MPH 120H 12/1200Z 22.5N 134.0W 45 KT 50 MPH $$ Forecaster Avila

Tags: number discussion storm tropical

 

Tropical Storm Ileana Forecast Discussion Number 11

2018-08-07 10:53:33| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 300 AM MDT Tue Aug 07 2018 404 WTPZ41 KNHC 070853 TCDEP1 Tropical Storm Ileana Discussion Number 11 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP112018 300 AM MDT Tue Aug 07 2018 Infrared and microwave satellite imagery suggest that Ileana's low-level circulation may have been disrupted by the Sierra Madre mountain range when the cyclone passed just offshore of the southwestern coast of Mexico and likely opened up into a wave between 0000-0400 UTC. However, a strong burst of convection containing a large area of cloud tops colder than -80 deg C has redeveloped just northeast of the alleged center during the past couple of hours, which could help regenerate a new low-level center. Thus the system is still being considered to be a tropical cyclone until more conclusive data to the contrary become available. The initial intensity of 45 kt is based on a Dvorak satellite current intensity estimate of T3.0/45 kt from TAFB. The initial motion estimate is a faster and uncertain 295/20 kt. Ileana or its remnants are forecast to maintain a fairly quick west-northwestward motion around or within the northeastern and northern portions of Hurricane John's outer circulation, with the latter system currently located only about 200 nmi southwest of the much smaller Ileana. The new NHC track forecast is similar to the previous advisory track, and lies close to the consensus model TVCE. The global and regional hurricane models remain in good agreement on Ileana dissipating in less than 18 hours, due in large part from strong vertical wind created by the northwesterly outflow associated with nearby Hurricane John. Until dissipation occurs, however, only slight weakening is expected due to the recent increase in deep convection near and to the northeast of the alleged center, and also as a result of Ileana's relatively fast forward speed of 20 kt. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 07/0900Z 19.4N 106.9W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 07/1800Z 20.6N 109.6W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 08/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Stewart

Tags: number discussion storm tropical

 

Tropical Storm Kristy Forecast Discussion Number 2

2018-08-07 10:51:05| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 200 AM PDT Tue Aug 07 2018 135 WTPZ43 KNHC 070850 TCDEP3 Tropical Storm Kristy Discussion Number 2 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP132018 200 AM PDT Tue Aug 07 2018 Satellite images indicate that the cyclone has rapidly become better organized, with a distinct curved band pattern now apparent. A timely scatterometer pass indicated peak winds of 40-45 kt, so the initial wind speed is set to 45 kt. Continued intensification is forecast while the storm remains over warm waters with light or moderate shear. While there is no guidance indicating anything but slow strengthening, some caution should be advised since Kristy has already overachieved. The wind speed forecast is raised from the previous one, and is close to the HFIP corrected consensus. Weakening should start by day 4 as the storm moves over cooler waters. Kristy appears to be moving at 265/10 kt. Model guidance is in decent agreement on a subtropical ridge holding steady to the north of the cyclone for a day or so, causing a westward motion. After that time, the agreement becomes quite poor due to large uncertainties over how fast the ridge erodes, partially due to the circulation of Hurricane John. The GFS shows a fast erosion and a turn to the north and northeast of Kristy, while the ECMWF keeps the ridge in place, leading to the models being a "mere" 1200 miles apart on the day-5 forecast of Kristy. Interestingly, the model consensus didn't change much, so I've decided to keep the forecast basically the same, with the caveat that this is obviously a low-confidence prediction. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 07/0900Z 14.3N 125.1W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 07/1800Z 14.3N 126.5W 50 KT 60 MPH 24H 08/0600Z 14.5N 128.2W 55 KT 65 MPH 36H 08/1800Z 14.9N 129.4W 60 KT 70 MPH 48H 09/0600Z 15.6N 130.2W 65 KT 75 MPH 72H 10/0600Z 17.5N 130.5W 65 KT 75 MPH 96H 11/0600Z 19.5N 131.0W 55 KT 65 MPH 120H 12/0600Z 22.0N 133.0W 45 KT 50 MPH $$ Forecaster Blake

Tags: number discussion storm tropical

 

Sites : [561] [562] [563] [564] [565] [566] [567] [568] [569] [570] [571] [572] [573] [574] [575] [576] [577] [578] [579] [580] next »